-Caveat Lector-

from:
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<A HREF="http://elint.server101.com/">Elint : News with Intelligence </A>
-----
10 May 1999

U.S. secret agenda for the Balkans and Europe

Yugoslavia enjoyed peace and growing prosperity since 1945. 1n 1967, when
Yugoslavia was threatened by the Soviet Union, the US 6th Fleet cruised its
coast as a protective force. In WW2, Tito was a staunch ally of the US and
UK, as had been the Serbs in the previous world war. Since the days of
Byzantium, the Christian Balkans have stood as a bulwark against invaders of
Europe even when faced with overwhelming odds, such as invasion by the
Ottoman Empire. How did these people recently become pariahs and their
strategic position so unimportant that we would bomb them into evacuating
their homeland?  What agenda is at work that required the dismemberment of
Yugoslavia?

The change is recent: even as short a time ago as the late 1980s, when
Russia was emerging from the Soviet Union, a secret meeting between the
highest-ranking officers of the armed forces of Nato and Russia placed
maintaining the security of Yugoslavia at the top of their agenda. With the
objectives of the Nato and the Warsaw Pact redundant, these officers agreed
a mutual interest - the protection of Europe from aggression arising from
potentially hostile, Muslim states.

The term "Europe" may be interpreted in a number of ways and one is
"Christendom" - which may be seen as a shared religion, or set of values. It
is these commonalties that link Moscow to Madrid, Athens to London and Oslo
to Rome. When Islamic forces invaded Spain and France, it took some 600
years to liberate the region. Similarly, it took a combined European force
to defeat the Ottoman invasion and lift the siege of Vienna; only this
century were the Ottoman Turks in Europe pushed into the enclave around
Constantinople and in this the Serbs played a major role.

Christendom, or that area containing those who share the values of modern
Europe, now extends to include Washington and Ottawa. Though these nations
comprise peoples of many religions and races, they may be viewed as part of
one, broad culture which is variously described as "the West", or "Western
democracies." Whether or not it is proper to make this observation, there
are those in senior positions throughout European governments and armed
forces who do see themselves as part of this picture (the actions of Serbian
sympathisers within Nato bears this out).

One invasion route into Europe is from Asia Minor (modern-day Turkey),
through the Balkans and into Eastern Europe. The Mongols considered this
option and rejected it (choosing instead to invade Eastern Europe via
Russia), whereas later, the Ottoman Turks succeeded in entering Europe
through the Balkans. Geography dictates that it is in the strategic interest
of Europe to safeguard the three invasion routes (via Spain and Russia being
the two others). The disintegration of the Soviet Union and the collapse of
the Warsaw Pact raised once again the potential threat to Europe along its
south-eastern frontier.

Various causes may be surmised for the rise of Fundamentalist Islam in
recent decades and it may be coincidental that this period also saw the
independence from the Soviet Union of its southern republics, some of which
are Islamic. Taking advantage of this situation, Iran has struggled to
achieve hegemony in the region and its main competitor is Turkey. The
initial reaction of Russia and Nato was to see these turbulent and
expansionist forces as a threat, though to Russia, the danger was more
immediate. The governments of George Bush, Margaret Thatcher and Mikhail
Gorbachev - and in particular senior officers within their armed forces -
shared this concern and agreed that if any threat could exist now, or in the
near future - it lay within the Islamic nations.

There are various means by which this threat could manifest itself-
terrorism, insurgency, rebellious immigrant groups, and missile attack from
North Africa included - and land invasion is both traditional and the most
dangererous. The USA, UK and Nato countries in general invested heavily in
Russia, including retraining elements of the Russian armed forces in an
attempt to shore up their south-eastern defences. One means by which I know
this was effective is that during this period of the early 1990s I had
meetings with a number of military officers from nations either bordering
Russia, or nearby, who expressed considerable alarm at the new-found prowess
of Russia's military machine.

This state of unanimity of purpose was not to last. First, the leaderships
of the USA, UK and Russia changed, as Bill Clinton, John Major and Boris
Yelstin were elected. In the USA, the Democrats in general and Clinton's
administration in particular, had a different set of concerns from both the
Republicans and George Bush, Russia and Europe. Second, as the European
Union grew bigger and stronger, the possibility of a European-based defence
system - along the lines of the existing Western European Union (WEU)
defence pact - that would replace Nato was increasing; collaterally to that,
as the EU was becoming a serious economic rival to the USA, so the strategy
of "divide and conquer" revealed itself.

There are numerous divisions within Europe ready for exploitation. Elements
within Germany remember with pride their people's leadership of the Holy
Roman Empire, which extended into the Balkans. Some Italians similarly view
the Balkans with ambition. And the bogeyman of Europe - Turkey - has been
waiting in the wings for a grand entrance.

Turkey is keen to enjoy the fruit it would harvest from joining the EU. The
division between Turkey and Europe is more than either geographic, or
economic, but also cultural: most Europeans do not see the Turks as European
in origin, or culture. It could also be said that most Turks do not see
themselves as European. Within this division of views and ambitions lay a
potent lever with which the USA could - and would - use to   weaken Europe.

The Turks entered Europe from the steppes of Asia, via a stint as
mercenaries for Persia. It took the Turks hundreds of years to succeed in
their invasion and occupation of Asia Minor and in their doing so they
destroyed Byzantium, the heir to the Eastern Roman Empire. The empire of the
Ottoman Turks was dismembered largely in the 20th century by the Arab
Revolt, the allies in WW1, and the liberation wars of Greece, Serbia and
other nations within South East Europe. In WW2, the threat of Turkish
invasion tied up 14 divisions of German troops in the Balkans. Greece still
smarts from the more recent Turkish invasion of Cyprus.

Now nominally a secular state, the forces of Fundamentalism swirl near the
surface of Turkish society. This is reinforced by the nostalgia for the time
when Turkey held sway over the Muslim world. There are also many Arabs who
see their only realistic chance for equality (or superiority, or revenge)
over Europe in the unity last found under Turkish rule. Turkey is a big
stick for the USA to wave at Europe.

The role Germany played in pulling Slovenia out of Yugoslavia is well known,
as it the encouragement that Germany and Italy gave to Croatia. Italy has
renewed its links with Albania (since being kicked out in WW2). During the
Croatian conflict, the USA set up a covert base of operations on an Adriatic
island, then quietly trained and equipped the Croatian army. Less well known
is the assistance given by the USA to Turkey.

I sat (as a guest) in an Greek military intelligence office in late 1992,
watching a report come in of a Turkish merchant ship trying to break the UN
blockade of Bosnia. On board were heavy weapons, including tanks and
artillery. Meanwhile, as British and other Nato aircraft patrolled the
Balkan airspace to enforce the arms embargo, the Turkish airforce was using
Hercules transport aircraft to fly in weapons at night. The USA shipped F16s
to Turkey, then provided them with the codes that would allow penetration of
Nato airspace.

Greece is caught in a cleft stick, knowing that helping Yugoslavia in an
even-handed way (comparing Turkish support for its enemies) would result in
a second invasion of Cyprus that would result in total Turkish occupation of
that island. Germany and Italy are already compromised. Hungary is a new
member of Nato and must show willing. Romania and Bulgaria await crumbs to
fall from the EU table. Yugoslavia is isolated.

The anticipated fallout from the secret US agenda for Europe includes having
Turkey as a proxy for US interests in the Near East, with an influence
across the southern Former Soviet Union (FSU) and the Middle East. Turkey
has now an alliance with the other US proxy in the region - Israel. The
human cost - Turkey crushing Kurdish hopes for autonomy - is negligible from
the US point of view and meanwhile promotes the status quo, seen as
stability for the region.

This is a game of empires that the USA sees that it cannot lose. Kosovo
repopulated by Muslims cannot be defended by Nato forever and will join up
with Albania, which in turn will need development and military aid from
Turkey. Turkey will then have more than the existing toe-hold in Europe, but
a substantial presence. As an important player in EU affairs, Turkey will
not have long to wait for a place at the top table, giving the US State
Department another agent of influence within (weakened) European councils.

However, just as Marxists saw history as inevitably on their side, so there
are many opportunities for the US secret agenda to be derailed. Russia for
instance, with the Ukraine and Belarus, is in an ideal position to commit
itself to a conflict in defence of Yugoslavia - Russian poverty playing a
factor. This would invite us to a millennium party of a kind no sane person
would choose to attend.

Any widening of the conflict would be likely to trigger direct and open
Turkish military intervention within Europe. During the Bosnian conflict,
one of my contacts in the Turkish military who was based in London was
recalled to command a cavalry brigade on the Bulgarian border. It was clear
that Turkey was prepared to invade on behalf of European Muslims.

The Supreme Allied Commander of Nato is always American, a reflection of the
fact that Nato is an extension of US, rather than European policy. The WEU
is available to Europe as an alternative to Nato and has never been fully
activated; the EU has yet to co-ordinate either foreign policy, or its
extension - military forces. No European alternative to US policy is easily,
or quickly available.

A widening of the Balkans conflict would bring about an intriguing
spectacle, of European forces fighting European forces on behalf of outside
forces operating against European interests. Already, serving military
officers in Nato armed services have expressed grave doubts as to the wisdom
of the present course and there are at least two cases of Nato officers
assisting the Yugoslav cause. There are many voices of political opposition
to the current agenda; they cross the spectrum of parties and Nato nations.

It is commonly agreed by independent commentators that bombing alone is most
unlikely to achieve Nato goals and when that is taken aboard by those
promoting the war, the opportunity will arise to revise the agenda. At that
point, which way will they drag us, the public?  It must be doubted that
today's Europe, interconnected and interdependent, would survive another
internecine bloodletting. The alternative demands a rejection of US
leadership and a commitment to a unity that Europe has not enjoyed for many
years. The challenge is daunting.

ENDS
-----
Aloha, He'Ping,
Om, Shalom, Salaam.
Em Hotep, Peace Be,
Omnia Bona Bonis,
All My Relations.
Adieu, Adios, Aloha.
Amen.
Roads End
Kris

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