On 4/26/24 11:20, Miroslav Suchý wrote:
New projection when we will be finished is 2025-04-06 (+5 days from last
report). Pure linear approximation.
Such a linear approximation, based on the entire tracked history,
is the second worst possible estimate. (The worst possible estimate
is the output of a random date generator.)
Financial markets and other arenas using serious statistical forecasting
have known for decades that it is much better to estimate by assuming
a rate equal to the moving average rate over a fixed-length relevant
period. Repeatedly estimating based on the entire history does not
meet the fixed-length requirement, because the entire history grows.
Typical periods range from a small number of months to one year.
For Fedora, one relevant period might be six months, the interval
between scheduled releases. Also useful are 90 and 120 days.
Graphing the estimated completion date based on such a moving
average rate would be much more informative and useful than the
estimated dates which have been published so far.
--
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