On 06/01/2024 17:59, Peter Humphrey wrote:
On Saturday, 6 January 2024 16:21:30 GMT Wols Lists wrote:
... it's nothing to do with more power or whatever, it's down to simple
statistics. If genloop guesses the statistical spread wrongly, it's
going to mess up its estimates.
Aren't you exaggerating genlop's complexity? I wasn't aware of any use of
statistics in it, other than a simple arithmetic mean to estimate the time
remaining. It certainly seems to do that, anyway.
Other than a simple arithmetic mean !!! Other than a simple arithmetic
mean !!!
If that's the case, you've just confirmed my statement - genloop is
almost certainly using the wrong statistics for the job !!!
If you take the average (arithmetic mean) of a power-law (exponential
decay) distribution, your results are going to be garbage.
Statistics is one of those areas where, if you don't know what you're
doing and you use the wrong maths, then you are going to get stupid results.
"Statistics tell you how to get from A to B. What they don't tell you is
that you're all at C".
Cheers,
Wol
