Frederick Noronha <f...@goa-india.org on July 20, 2011 10:31 AM wrote : >>>Statistician and engineer John Nazareth <john.nazar...@aero.bombardier.com> shared with me his figures of estimates of Goan migration, within India and the rest of the globe. He writes: I don't mind them being on Goanet. The purpose has to be for people to add information, because I am more confident of some numbers than others. ...... In his notes, John comments as follows: >>Level of Confidence 10 Stats published - govrnment or otherwise 9 I've been estimating these stats for the last 25 years plus. 8 Good information from Goans in the area 7 Decent guesses based on conversations with people from those cities 6 As 7, but less confident 5 Guessed based on Google searches 4 Least confident of this one. There obviously were a lot of Goans in Karachi, but people from there are clueless of even the order of magnitude. This is a mystery to me as they have written about everything except numbers P.S. Just got word from my cousin formerly of Karachi that he has a 1956 which the Archbishop of Goa said there were 25000 Goa in his realm. So the "heyday" numbers are probably good.>>> COMMENT:The term ‘level of confidence’ is a calculated interval or bracket around a sample estimate, used to define how reliable the observed, measured sample estimate is to the true population parameter, for example the mean or proportion. It assumes a normal distribution, and use of a random sample. It appears the “Level if Confidence” – 4 to 10 levels no less!! are a layman’s attempt to add 'validity' to untested musings, by misusing statistical terminology to mislead the reader. It is astonishing that the “statistician/engineer” gentleman who should, does not know better. I.Nunes
From: Frederick Noronha <f...@goa-india.org> To: "Goa's premiere mailing list, estb. 1994!" <goanet@lists.goanet.org> Sent: Wednesday, July 20, 2011 10:31 AM Subject: [Goanet] Goa migration... attempting to arrive at some figures Statistician and engineer John Nazareth <john.nazar...@aero.bombardier.com> shared with me his figures of estimates of Goan migration, within India and the rest of the globe. He writes: I don't mind them being on Goanet. The purpose has to be for people to add information, because I am more confident of some numbers than others. I've put some comments about Goans by religion. People may misunderstand that. I wanted to a) make it clear that my count includes all; b) different religions migration patterns had different imperatives. (Alan's book shows that well.) Your thoughts would be appreciated." The Alan referred to is Alan Machado Prabhu, author of Sarasvati's Children, the story of Goan migration to Mangalore. The tables can be found at: http://bit.ly/rd3K8J and http://bit.ly/r8uMAU In his notes, John comments as follows: Notes 1 Includes all people of Goan origin (e.g. Mangaloreans) (Note - I've discounted some of Goa's population as being non-Goan.) 2 These numbers are Goans of all religions. 3 Within Goa, 30% are RC, 68% Hindu, 2% Muslim 4 Rest of India - 60% RC, 40% Hindu 5 Outside India - 95% RC, 5% Hindu Level of Confidence 10 Stats published - govrnment or otherwise 9 I've been estimating these stats for the last 25 years plus. 8 Good information from Goans in the area 7 Decent guesses based on conversations with people from those cities 6 As 7, but less confident 5 Guessed based on Google searches 4 Least confident of this one. There obviously were a lot of Goans in Karachi, but people from there are clueless of even the order of magnitude. This is a mystery to me as they have written about everything except numbers P.S. Just got word from my cousin formerly of Karachi that he has a 1956 article in which the Archbishop of Goa said there were 25000 Goa in his realm. So the "heyday" numbers are probably good. Frederick Noronha :: +91-9822122436 :: +91-832-2409490