I don't know about ChatGPT, but Daniel Kahneman won the 2002 Nobel
Memorial Prize in Economics,[1] even though he's not an economist, for
his leadership in creating a new subfield in the intersection of human
psychology and economics now called "behavioral economics".[2] Then in
2009 Kahneman and Gary Klein published an article on, "Conditions for
intuitive expertise: a failure to disagree", which concluded that expert
intuition is learned from frequent, rapid, high-quality feedback.
People you do not learn from frequent, rapid, high-quality feedback can
be beaten by simple heuristics developed by intelligent lay people.[3]
That includes most professions, which Kahneman Sibony and Sunstein call
"respect-experts".
Kahneman Sibony and Sunstein further report that with a little data,
a regression model can outperform a simple heuristic, and with massive
amounts of data, artificial intelligence can outperform regression
models.[4]
An extreme but real example of current reality was describe in an
article on "Asylum roulette": With asylum judges in the same
jurisdiction with cases assigned at random, one judge approved 5 percent
of cases while another approved 88 percent.[5] However, virtually all
"respect-experts" are influenced in their judgements by time of day and
whether their favorite sports team won or lost the previous day. That
level of noise can be reduced dramatically by use of appropriate
artificial intelligence.
Comments?
Spencer Graves
[1]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman
[2]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_economics
[3]
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/26798603_Conditions_for_Intuitive_Expertise_A_Failure_to_Disagree
[4]
Daniel Kahneman; Olivier Sibony; Cass Sunstein (2021). Noise: A Flaw in
Human Judgment (Little, Brown and Company).
[5]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugee_roulette
On 7/17/23 1:46 PM, Bert Gunter wrote:
This is an **off-topic** post about the subject line, that I thought
might be of interest to the R Community. I hope this does not offend
anyone.
The widely known ChatGPT software now offers what is called a "Code
Interpreter," that, among other things, purports to do "data
analysis." (Search for articles with details.) One quote, from the
(online) NY Times, is:
"Arvind Narayanan, a professor of computer science at Princeton
University, cautioned that people should not become overly reliant on
code interpreter for data analysis as A.I. still produces inaccurate
results and misinformation.
'Appropriate data analysis requires just a lot of critical thinking
about the data,” he said.' "
Amen. ... Maybe.
(As this is off-topic, if you wish to reply to me, probably better to
do so privately).
Cheers to all,
Bert
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