Interesting article... I think it's dangerous to put too much faith in the belief that trends and outcomes from the past are a reflection of what is happening today and going to happen tomorrow. I think that there's a significantly different thing going on today in the media and entertainment industry than has gone on in the past: end users are driving the innovation, and video blogging is a crisp example of this.
I wrote an article for IMAGINE (a trade magazine that covers film, video, and multimedia production in New England) for the Dec'06/ Jan'07 issue titled: "Macro Trends in Media and Entertainment," which I subsequently updated: http://kino-eye.com/2006/09/30/macro-trends-rio2006/ Document: Macro-Trends-v2.pdf (PDF, 164 KB) What do you think of my premise? I'm planning to release a Version 3 after I add more video sharing sites and round out the arguments. I'd love some feedback from this group before I complete a new version of the article. Regardless of the fact that the large media players will claim a large percentage of the total media and entertainment activity on the internet, independent producers (video bloggers, independent filmmakers, small organizations, etc) will still have a percentage, and that percentage will be significantly larger than it has been in the past through the hundred year history of cinema, television, radio, cable, and now the internet. So personal and independent media will have much more significant access to an audience than it had before. This is a trend near and dear to my heart that I've been tracking since 1988 when people were saying the Hi8 camcorder revolution would democratize the media. But I argued with my fellow filmmakers back then, access to the tools of production is only 1/3 of the equation. You still need access to marketing to build an audience, and access to distribution. The internet today provides the missing pieces, it fuels word-of-mouth as well as provides an economical distribution medium. David. David Tames, Filmmaker & Media Technologist http://kino-eye.com | 617.216.1096
