As I understand your position: Historical contact tracing (where data is made voluntarily by individuals and businesses) of patents who present with symptoms, coupled with frequent cleanings of public places, is the appropriate response. People are encouraged, but not required, to share tracing data. Testing is not ruled out, but organized testing of the population is not required as part of tracing. The scope of any localized shutdown would be measured using the current local hospital capacity at that moment in time.
I appreciate your taking the time to help me understand your position. On Sat, Apr 25, 2020 at 10:18 PM Steve Jones <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com> wrote: > You asked > > What was recomended by the White House. Regional opening with result > driven response. (Without rhetoric, example, my county TRIPLED its cases > over the weekend. It went from 1 to 3, the 2 new ones are related, so the > increase is pretty irrelevant.) Tracing is more important than testing. > That's just a matter of fact, testing is a slice in time, you can be > infected, and test negative if you were recently infected, you can get > infected at a test site. You can test positive from an environmental > exposure without having actually caught it. It's like MRSA of the nairs. > > Once identified, the tracing leads back to likely hotspots. I'd personally > put the bulk of the funding into tracing. Use every bit of data > volunteered. Particularly request the tracking data from mobile devices. If > its volunteered, you have a map. If they dont, well, you work with what you > have. > "Testing" is a tool of politics. The only way to effectively test would be > real time monitoring. Which A. Doesnt exist and B. Wouldn't be feasible. > > The governors each now have in their possession the location of every > single test processing facility in the nation. So what little relevance > testing actually plays in management is their responsibility to delegate > coordination. So it's a moot issue. > > Any location exposed in tracing gets a mandatory scrub scrub (to be > honest, I dont understand any public venue that wouldn't be surface > decontaminating once ever 24 hours minimum anyway, there's no shortage of > killitol level disinfectants) > > I think the mandatory face covering is nonsense. If it were mandatory > rated filtration masks that would be different. > But there isnt a production capacity for that on the entire planet. But > since it makes people feel like they're doing something, I'm all for it. > Placebo is actually a powerful medication for much of what ails society. > Plus the homemade masks are keeping housewives occupied and less nervous. > That actually matters. > > Occasionally a tracing may require a mandatory compensated closure. > Example being a county here in illinois that has a processor who has over > 20 employees infected, they're still operational. There is autonomy and > constitutional rights, and then there is stupidity and a true public health > risk. That falls under the latter and should be closed pending > decontamination. > > A forcible closure, from a document able and legitimate public health risk > should require medical screening of all staff/administration prior to > resuming activities. There is no shortage of available healthcare > practitioners right now, so depts of public health can contract that . Once > again, the focus should be on tracing. Heavily funded tracing. "Patient > zero" in the above mentioned case has probably long since recovered. > Tracing is where they are identified, as theyll test negative now. Cases > like this are where antibody testing should be prioritized, assuming there > is consent. > > Tracing > > The same applies to public venues. If tracing identifies probable > contamination, the venue scrubs. Applicable staff are cleared, tracing, > tracing tracing. Video surveillance has a huge role where it is voluntarily > submitted. Voluntarily being key and subjective, since it will be a whole > lot quicker to clear a location of all tracing resources are made readily > available. Call it extortion if you want, it is what it is, and it is a > tool. > > Metrics must be clearly defined. If two people happenned to have been in > the same place, it doesnt need to necessarily be shut down. But the > threshold must be clearly defined. We have very little that is clearly > defined. That has a whole lot to do with the defiance. Selling seeds being > a prime example, at no point did illinois shut that down, yet places > cordoned them off and facebook images went nuts. This is literally the same > thing that cause the rapid spread in the US, images of empty shelves. Many > of the people protesting still dont know that nurseries and greenhouses > were specifically deemed essential last week, but that's why they're there. > Clearly define everything, on the state and county websites. Accurate > information is critical. That and tracing. > > Define regional thresholds for stages of opening. If a region declines, > shut it down. If a region does well, progress the stages. Exactly as the > feds recommend. > > Define and justify every single essential and non essential industry. With > a mandatory state clarification within 24 hours of a designation request. > Justify being key. And publicly accessible designations. This would be > fluid and ongoing. > > Leisure activities need designations. Nuclear family needs clarification. > As it reads, I cant take my family fishing in illinois because the > designated limit is 2. This will get police in situations with bad outcomes > because nobody bothered to clarify. > > If a region's medical resources are verifiably and documented to be taxed > to a predefined and clearly defined level, then ease back on the stages, > all the way to lockdown if need be. But media reports and public opinion > arent the metrics. The staffing levels and documented patient loads define > that. > > > I can continue > > > > > > On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 9:01 PM Chuck Macenski <ch...@macenski.com> wrote: > >> Would you please articulate specifically "what is right" in this >> situation? I am asking for your non-political opinion of the most >> constructive way forward. >> >> On Sat, Apr 25, 2020 at 8:24 PM Steve Jones <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com> >> wrote: >> >>> I sit back and watch as people contradict their own statements. "Its >>> going to be here like this for years" "tests are growing, as is the number" >>> "it's been here longer than we think" "it hasn't peaked because muh >>> testing" "it's going to be worse in fall" "mitigation has had a major >>> impact" >>> The best is regarding the medication mien fuehrer liked. "Its only >>> anecdotal" "a tiny group had a negative outcome, thisnis the gold standard >>> and this drug must be banned" >>> >>> I live in a state where our governor is in a pissing contest with the >>> White House, but doing pretty much what the White House recommends, with >>> the exception of looking at things by region. We only have two regions, >>> chicago, and people who voted for the current president at 1600. So the >>> whole of downstate will be punished for not voting the right way. When >>> asked about the data, for the "science" behind this, we were told the state >>> doesnt own the data, so we cant see it. >>> >>> I'm part of a foster parent group. One of the fosters is utterly >>> destroyed right now. Her prior ward, that she stayed in contact with died 3 >>> days ago at 15. He had returned home, but went back into the system during >>> this (our state, in its infinite wisdom has effectively shut down the >>> foster support system, non essential and all) he couldn't come back to her >>> because she is at capacity. He had cancer and was in a drug trial. He had >>> been thriving. The governors orders didnt allow for him to get access to >>> the trial resources, so he lost his trial spot, as is the nature of trials. >>> There were no resources available to get him into a linear treatment. 3 >>> days ago he succumbed to the complication. While anecdotal, this is exactly >>> what the cure being worse than the disease looks like. Granted, the speed >>> at which he declined from thriving to dead indicates underlying issues, the >>> chicago emperors orders made certain there were no resources. Right now, >>> thanks to the emperors orders, there are approximately zero resources >>> available to the foster families. Anticipate a whole lot of negative >>> outcomes. >>> >>> Point is, everybody is more concerned about proving how wrong their >>> political enemy is, that nobody is even actually looking for what is right. >>> >>> Thankfully mother nature doesnt care and this will, like all ailments of >>> proximity, diminish in the next week or so. >>> >>> On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 5:48 PM Bill Prince <part15...@gmail.com> wrote: >>> >>>> Just listened (in part) to a discussion about COVID-19 as it regards >>>> China/US relations. It is a discussion between Dubner, Michèle Flournoy ( >>>> former undersecretary of defense and co-founder of strategic-advisory firm >>>> WestExec.), and Michael Auslin (historian at Stanford University’s Hoover >>>> Institution). >>>> >>>> Within the discussion Auslin asserts that the death toll within Wuhan >>>> alone was between 45 and 47 thousand; at least 10X what they have reported >>>> through official channels. He gets his data through croudsourcing >>>> crematoria activity and the number of people picking up urns of deceased >>>> family members. >>>> >>>> If you don't have time to listen to this, it is at least worth a read >>>> of the transcript. >>>> >>>> https://freakonomics.com/podcast/covid-19-china/ >>>> >>>> >>>> bp >>>> <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> >>>> >>>> >>>> On 4/25/2020 3:11 PM, Jaime Solorza wrote: >>>> >>>> This virus doesn't care if you are a Republican, a Democrat, an >>>> Independent, agnostic, religious or an atheist...if it gets you it might >>>> kill you... >>>> Stay smart, listen to doctors and scientists....not ineptus maximus >>>> politicians. >>>> >>>> On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 12:45 PM Bill Prince <part15...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>> >>>>> As we test more, we are undoubtedly going to find more cases that were >>>>> previously going undetected (asymptomatic infection). This is a long way >>>>> from over. The other thing we have not come to grips with is the uneven >>>>> spread/mitigation. >>>>> >>>>> There was an interesting graphic for the state of California showing >>>>> the state as a whole versus just the Bay Area (Mercury News this morning). >>>>> The 7 counties around the bay instituted shelter in place very early, and >>>>> it's beginning to show in the statistics. The Bay Area accounts for almost >>>>> 18% of the entire state population (7 of the 40 million). >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> bp >>>>> <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On 4/25/2020 8:45 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote: >>>>> >>>>> [image: image] >>>>> >>>>> Might be Chebyshev BPF though... hopefully...Bessell. >>>>> Hopefully not high pass... >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> AF mailing list >>>>> AF@af.afmug.com >>>>> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com >>>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> AF mailing list >>>> AF@af.afmug.com >>>> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com >>>> >>> -- >>> AF mailing list >>> AF@af.afmug.com >>> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com >>> >> -- >> AF mailing list >> AF@af.afmug.com >> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com >> > -- > AF mailing list > AF@af.afmug.com > http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com >
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