furniture in and what cant come in is tied down. Had to do this at staten island and here
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, cbrianwatkins@... wrote: > > I'm putting everything in my yard as close to my house as possible > > I'm afraid my new Willow tree is going to get uprooted > > Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry > > -----Original Message----- > From: Claire Davids <claire.davids@...> > Sender: AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com > Date: Fri, 26 Aug 2011 09:09:34 > To: <AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com> > Reply-To: AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com > Subject: Re: [AsburyPark] Fwd: Hurricane Irene - August 26th - 5am > > oh - and what about furniture - is everyone bringing it in - i'm looking up > and down the road and none of my neighbours have yet..... > > On Fri, Aug 26, 2011 at 9:08 AM, Claire Davids > <claire.davids@...>wrote: > > > That was one of my worries too - looting..... My husband is away, my > > sister is arriving today with her 14 month old, i have 5 yr old and a dog > > and a cat..... my husband says leave but i just don't know - i also > > don't want to leave it too late. > > > > can't tell you how much i'm looking forward to a drive to newark and back > > this afternoon with all the evacuees on the road!! > > > > > > > > On Fri, Aug 26, 2011 at 9:04 AM, <cbrianwatkins@...> wrote: > > > >> I am sending my fiance, mother in law, and my shihtzu's west, to east > >> brunswick > >> > >> Myself and my big dog will be staying behind, if....I mean when we lose > >> power, my alarm system will be down. I don't want to run the risk of > >> someone > >> breaking in and cleaning me out > >> > >> I'm fully supplied for 15days > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry > >> > >> -----Original Message----- > >> From: Claire Davids <claire.davids@...> > >> Sender: AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com > >> Date: Fri, 26 Aug 2011 08:39:57 > >> To: <AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com> > >> Reply-To: AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com > >> Subject: Re: [AsburyPark] Fwd: Hurricane Irene - August 26th - 5am > >> > >> is anyone planning on jumping ship? i'm torn, i don't want to be the > >> melodramatic and go racing out of here but also don't want to be the > >> idiot > >> who stays and has a problem... I on the 500 block (so 5 blocks back from > >> the > >> water) - curious what other people are doing?? my plan is to stay put but > >> i > >> could be swayed. > >> > >> On Fri, Aug 26, 2011 at 8:12 AM, <asburysteve@...> wrote: > >> > >> > ** > >> > > >> > > >> > steve herman, asbury tower > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> >____________________________________ > >> > From: rick@... > >> > To: asburysteve@... > >> > Sent: 8/26/2011 7:46:54 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time > >> > Subj: Hurricane Irene - August 26th - 5am > >> > > >> > Approaching StormTHE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE > >> > WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY COAST > >> > > >> > HURRICANE IRENE TO IMPACT NEW JERSEY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY > >> > AFTERNOON > >> > > >> > HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH NEW JERSEY. > >> > HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NEW YORK CITY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW > >> ENGLAND > >> > > >> > Membership Feedback > >> > > >> > AUGUST 26TH - 5:00 AM > >> > HURRICANE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NJ COAST. PREPARATIONS TO > >> > PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION > >> > At 5:00 am Hurricane Irene was located about 700 miles south of the NJ > >> > coast with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. The hurricane has > >> deepened > >> > overnight as evidenced by a drop in central pressure (943mb) however > >> this > >> > deepening has translated into a more expansive wind field rather than > >> > higher > >> > winds around the center. Hurricane force winds now extend outward from > >> > the center by almost 100 miles and tropical storm force winds extend > >> > outward > >> > about 300 miles. > >> > Forecast guidance overnight has changed very little as far as the track > >> > is concerned and Irene is still forecast to track over or just east of > >> the > >> > NJ coast. At this point there should be little focus on the track since > >> > Irene is such a large storm, there will be major effects from the storm > >> > regardless. > >> > One important trend overnight is to accelerate Irene just a bit. This > >> > has a significant impact in that it is going to bring the worst of > >> Irene's > >> > wrath closer to that all important Sunday 7am high tide. Irene's closest > >> > passage looks to NJ looks to be between 8am and 11am and any further > >> > acceleration is going to bring that window right into the high tide > >> period. > >> > > >> > Rain will begin Saturday afternoon. Rain and increasing wind will begin > >> > around or just after midnight Saturday night. The worst of the hurricane > >> > will occur between 4am and Noon on Sunday when wind gusts of 80mph may > >> > occur. > >> > Winds will back to the west after Irene passes our latitude and remain > >> > gusty Sunday afternoon but skies will likely begin to clear. > >> > Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated amounts approaching 15 > >> > inches, are expected throughout the state. > >> > A storm surge of 3 to 6 feet is forecast by the National Weather Service > >> > which will result in dangerous coastal flooding, complete washover of > >> > beaches and the potential for damage to boardwalks, piers and other > >> > beachfront > >> > structures. > >> > At this point you should have hurricane preparations well underway. The > >> > States of New Jersey and New York have both declared a state of > >> emergency > >> > as have most local governments. Please heed the advice and > >> recommendations > >> > being provided. > >> > AUGUST 25TH - 5:00 PM > >> > HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NJ COAST FROM CAPE MAY TO SANDY > >> > HOOK > >> > No changes to the 9:00 AM forecast at this time > >> > AUGUST 25TH - 9:00 AM > >> > She is big.....She is mean.....She is Hurricane Irene.....and like it or > >> > not, she's coming our way. > >> > At 8:00 am, Hurricane Irene was making her way through the northwest > >> > Bahamas with highest winds of 115 mph. Irene has been going through an > >> ERC > >> > (eye replacement cycle) which has prevented additional strengthening, > >> but > >> > that > >> > process is nearly complete and the hurricane will likely gain strength > >> > today and tonight. > >> > Forecast guidance has shifted the forecast track of Irene decidedly to > >> the > >> > west. The track spray of the models are now all very close to the NJ > >> > shore. A couple have a landfall in Ocean City, MD and then northward > >> along > >> > the Delaware River, a few more are right over the Jersey Shore and a few > >> > others are just offshore. > >> > The National Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Watch for the North > >> > Carolina coast....additional watches are likely further north today, > >> > tonight and tomorrow. The earliest time for a Hurricane Watch in New > >> Jersey > >> > is > >> > late tonight or tomorrow morning. > >> > We are still 2 1/2 days away from impact, but given the trends of the > >> > forecast guidance, our area should prepare for, and expect, hurricane > >> > conditions on Saturday night and Sunday with the possibility of a direct > >> > landfall > >> > on New Jersey, which has not occurred since 1903. > >> > Assuming that Irene reaches Category 4 status later today, strikes > >> eastern > >> > North Carolina on Saturday afternoon as a Category 3 storm and then > >> > tracks over or just east of our area as a Category 1 storm, wind gusts > >> of > >> > 80mph > >> > are possible Sunday morning with perhaps 90 mph south of Atlantic City. > >> > Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected throughout the area. > >> > Rain will begin Saturday afternoon well in advance of Irene > >> > A storm surge of 3 to 4 feet is possible on the Jersey Shore which will > >> > cause coastal flooding in the back bays. Along the oceanfront, the > >> > landscape has changed dramatically over the last 15 years with sand > >> > replenishment > >> > and the installation of dune protection systems on many beaches. The > >> > beaches are wider than then were when previous hurricanes passed by in > >> > 1944, > >> > 1954, 1960 and 1985 and caused boardwalk damage. The wider beaches will > >> > certainly help, but the elevation has not changed so complete washover > >> of > >> > the > >> > beaches is likely. The dune protection systems will be put to the test > >> by > >> > Irene. > >> > Irene will be north of the area around mid-afternoon on Sunday at which > >> > time strong east winds will shift to the west and skies will rapidly > >> clear. > >> > > >> > Today is a good day to begin preliminary preparations such as removing > >> or > >> > securing loose outdoor items, fueling automobiles, and ensuring > >> > flashlights are working. > >> > I will continue to provide a daily e-mail update through Sunday however, > >> > I will post updates on the web site from without sending an additional > >> > e-mail so check back from time to time. I will post the next update > >> around > >> > 4:00. > >> > > >> > AUGUST 24TH - 7:00 PM - BRIEF UPDATE > >> > Model data since midday has been indicating a track closer to the NJ > >> coast > >> > with the consensus of the data showing Irene passing within 50 miles of > >> > the coast before making landfall on central Long Island. One of the most > >> > trusted long range models is even closer than that. The models runs > >> > tonight will be viewed with much interest. Obviously, a track this close > >> > really > >> > increases the concern for us for damaging winds and coastal flooding. > >> > Full update in the morning, but if this westward trend holds overnight, > >> the > >> > > >> > forecast tomorrow will be a more dire than what was issued today. > >> > AUGUST 24TH > >> > At Noon, Hurricane Irene was moving through the southeastern Bahamas > >> with > >> > a clearly defined eye and maximum winds of 115mph. Irene will likely > >> > continue to slowly strengthen today and Thursday and probably reach its > >> > peak > >> > strength of around 140mph sometime on Thursday. > >> > Forecast guidance has trended slightly east and that is reducing the > >> > possibility of a direct hit on New Jersey...but that does not diminish > >> the > >> > fact > >> > that we will have a very large and powerful hurricane moving through the > >> > nearby offshore waters. > >> > Best track estimate now is for Irene to be near the North Carolina Outer > >> > Banks on Saturday afternoon and near eastern Long Island on Sunday > >> > afternoon. > >> > For the Jersey Shore, even though rain will likely begin during the day > >> on > >> > Saturday, the worst effects are likely to be between midnight Saturday > >> > night to early afternoon on Sunday. > >> > If Irene takes the estimated track described above, the Jersey Shore > >> > would experience very heavy rains, wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph, tidal > >> > flooding > >> > and complete washover of the beaches. Please remember we are still days > >> > away from impact and there are still other track options to > >> > consider.....the > >> > above is just to give an idea of what would occur should Irene take that > >> > type of track. > >> > Will continue to monitor and update daily, more frequent updates will > >> > occur should anything change. > >> > AUGUST 23RD > >> > At Noon, Hurricane Irene was headed towards the southeastern Bahamas > >> with > >> > maximum sustained winds of 100mph. After strengthening last evening, > >> > Irene's intensity has leveled off due to interaction with the > >> mountainous > >> > terrain of the Dominican Republic and Haiti to the south of the storm > >> > center. > >> > As Irene continues to move further away, another round of strengthening > >> > should occur. > >> > Forecast guidance has shifted a bit to the east and is moving Irene a > >> bit > >> > faster. Given the latest data, landfall appears likely along the eastern > >> > North Carolina coast between Morehead City and the Outer Banks on > >> Saturday > >> > afternoon. > >> > From that point, the big question is how much of an easterly component > >> > will Irene take along its general northward motion. A track slightly > >> east > >> > of > >> > due north will bring a dangerous track from Norfolk, VA to Ocean City, > >> MD > >> > to along the Jersey Shore to Long Island. A bit more easterly component > >> > brings the hurricane back over the water east of Norfolk, 50 to 100 > >> miles > >> > east of NJ followed by landfall on eastern Long Island or southeastern > >> New > >> > England. > >> > Those two scenarios appear to be range we are looking at today. An > >> > inland track to our west does not appear likely as this time. The big > >> > questions > >> > are how strong is the western Atlantic ridge which will act to keep the > >> > hurricane close to the coast versus how strong is a trough moving into > >> the > >> > area from the west which will try to push Irene offshore. > >> > Although landfall on North Carolina will certainly weaken Irene, she > >> will > >> > not weaken as rapidly as must tropical systems do when they pass north > >> of > >> > North Carolina. The prevailing westerlies associated with the jet stream > >> > that usually reside over our area are displaced well to the north; > >> > therefore, Irene will not be sheared apart and will experience a much > >> more > >> > favorable upper air environment than that which is climatologically > >> > expected at > >> > our latitude. > >> > Large swells will likely arrive on the coastal waters on Friday. No > >> > matter what track Irene takes, rain and wind will follow on Sunday. The > >> > question is whether the winds are just gusty squalls or very strong and > >> > damaging. > >> > Tides are astronomically high over the weekend, so coastal flooding will > >> > be a concern. > >> > As Irene moves through the Bahama islands today and Wednesday, > >> conditions > >> > appear favorable for strengthening and Irene certainly has the potential > >> > to be a Category 4 hurricane (135 mph + winds) at on Wednesday and > >> > Thursday. > >> > Will continue to monitor trends and guidance...all are urged to keep > >> > abreast of the latest updates > >> > > >> > © Tri-State Storm Watch. All rights reserved. > >> > If you are unable to read this e-mail, please go to: > >> >_http://www.tristatestormwatch.com/pages/forecast_ > >> > (http://www.tristatestormwatch.com/pages/forecast) . > >> > Tri-State Storm Watch 1234 Any Street Shark River Hills NJ USA > >> > If you do not wish to receive messages from us,_click here_ > >> > ( > >> > > >> http://www.tristatestormwatch.com/livesite/unsubscribe.php?email_address=asburysteve@aol > >> > .com) . > >> > > >> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > >> > >> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] > >> > >> > >> > >> ------------------------------------ > >> > >> Yahoo! Groups Links > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> ------------------------------------ > >> > >> Yahoo! Groups Links > >> > >> > >> > >> > > > > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] > > > > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] > ------------------------------------ Yahoo! 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