Good luck to all that stayed! Maybe we can have more heated discussions after the storm. Mike
From: Claire Davids <claire.dav...@its-ship.com> To: AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com Sent: Saturday, August 27, 2011 12:09 PM Subject: Re: [AsburyPark] Re: Fwd: Hurricane Irene - August 26th - 5am We did the same, we just left..... I have ny 5 yr old and my sisters 14 month old and we figured they're not replaceable! Better safe than sorry.... good luck everyone! Claire Davids iParcel / ITS +16464316239 - mobile +12015492502 - direct On Aug 27, 2011 11:33 AM, "fancypaaantz" <fancypaaa...@yahoo.com> wrote: > My feeling is, hopefully we do not get a storm surge and the flooding is not so bad. But... if it is a worse case scenario and you need to be rescued, then you are not only in danger but you put those who may need to rescue you in danger. For me, I removed my "valuables" to the extent I really have any, set the alarm and I hope for the best. (And I have insurance and took video of what the house looked like before leaving for the insurance) I have a young child and I would not want to put anyone in danger. I think the issue with this storm is how slow moving it is and how much rain and surge it could generate. I saw Deal Lake overflow from just heavy rain. The looting is hopefully what the curfew is meant to prevent. > > --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, Claire Davids <claire.davids@...> wrote: >> >> That was one of my worries too - looting..... My husband is away, my sister >> is arriving today with her 14 month old, i have 5 yr old and a dog and a >> cat..... my husband says leave but i just don't know - i also don't want >> to leave it too late. >> >> can't tell you how much i'm looking forward to a drive to newark and back >> this afternoon with all the evacuees on the road!! >> >> >> >> On Fri, Aug 26, 2011 at 9:04 AM, <cbrianwatkins@...> wrote: >> >> > I am sending my fiance, mother in law, and my shihtzu's west, to east >> > brunswick >> > >> > Myself and my big dog will be staying behind, if....I mean when we lose >> > power, my alarm system will be down. I don't want to run the risk of someone >> > breaking in and cleaning me out >> > >> > I'm fully supplied for 15days >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry >> > >> > -----Original Message----- >> > From: Claire Davids <claire.davids@...> >> > Sender: AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com >> > Date: Fri, 26 Aug 2011 08:39:57 >> > To: <AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com> >> > Reply-To: AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com >> > Subject: Re: [AsburyPark] Fwd: Hurricane Irene - August 26th - 5am >> > >> > is anyone planning on jumping ship? i'm torn, i don't want to be the >> > melodramatic and go racing out of here but also don't want to be the idiot >> > who stays and has a problem... I on the 500 block (so 5 blocks back from >> > the >> > water) - curious what other people are doing?? my plan is to stay put but >> > i >> > could be swayed. >> > >> > On Fri, Aug 26, 2011 at 8:12 AM, <asburysteve@...> wrote: >> > >> > > ** >> > > >> > > >> > > steve herman, asbury tower >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > >____________________________________ >> > > From: rick@... >> > > To: asburysteve@... >> > > Sent: 8/26/2011 7:46:54 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time >> > > Subj: Hurricane Irene - August 26th - 5am >> > > >> > > Approaching StormTHE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE >> > > WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY COAST >> > > >> > > HURRICANE IRENE TO IMPACT NEW JERSEY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY >> > > AFTERNOON >> > > >> > > HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH NEW JERSEY. >> > > HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NEW YORK CITY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND >> > > >> > > Membership Feedback >> > > >> > > AUGUST 26TH - 5:00 AM >> > > HURRICANE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NJ COAST. PREPARATIONS TO >> > > PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION >> > > At 5:00 am Hurricane Irene was located about 700 miles south of the NJ >> > > coast with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. The hurricane has deepened >> > > overnight as evidenced by a drop in central pressure (943mb) however this >> > > deepening has translated into a more expansive wind field rather than >> > > higher >> > > winds around the center. Hurricane force winds now extend outward from >> > > the center by almost 100 miles and tropical storm force winds extend >> > > outward >> > > about 300 miles. >> > > Forecast guidance overnight has changed very little as far as the track >> > > is concerned and Irene is still forecast to track over or just east of >> > the >> > > NJ coast. At this point there should be little focus on the track since >> > > Irene is such a large storm, there will be major effects from the storm >> > > regardless. >> > > One important trend overnight is to accelerate Irene just a bit. This >> > > has a significant impact in that it is going to bring the worst of >> > Irene's >> > > wrath closer to that all important Sunday 7am high tide. Irene's closest >> > > passage looks to NJ looks to be between 8am and 11am and any further >> > > acceleration is going to bring that window right into the high tide >> > period. >> > > >> > > Rain will begin Saturday afternoon. Rain and increasing wind will begin >> > > around or just after midnight Saturday night. The worst of the hurricane >> > > will occur between 4am and Noon on Sunday when wind gusts of 80mph may >> > > occur. >> > > Winds will back to the west after Irene passes our latitude and remain >> > > gusty Sunday afternoon but skies will likely begin to clear. >> > > Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated amounts approaching 15 >> > > inches, are expected throughout the state. >> > > A storm surge of 3 to 6 feet is forecast by the National Weather Service >> > > which will result in dangerous coastal flooding, complete washover of >> > > beaches and the potential for damage to boardwalks, piers and other >> > > beachfront >> > > structures. >> > > At this point you should have hurricane preparations well underway. The >> > > States of New Jersey and New York have both declared a state of emergency >> > > as have most local governments. Please heed the advice and >> > recommendations >> > > being provided. >> > > AUGUST 25TH - 5:00 PM >> > > HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NJ COAST FROM CAPE MAY TO SANDY >> > > HOOK >> > > No changes to the 9:00 AM forecast at this time >> > > AUGUST 25TH - 9:00 AM >> > > She is big.....She is mean.....She is Hurricane Irene.....and like it or >> > > not, she's coming our way. >> > > At 8:00 am, Hurricane Irene was making her way through the northwest >> > > Bahamas with highest winds of 115 mph. Irene has been going through an >> > ERC >> > > (eye replacement cycle) which has prevented additional strengthening, but >> > > that >> > > process is nearly complete and the hurricane will likely gain strength >> > > today and tonight. >> > > Forecast guidance has shifted the forecast track of Irene decidedly to >> > the >> > > west. The track spray of the models are now all very close to the NJ >> > > shore. A couple have a landfall in Ocean City, MD and then northward >> > along >> > > the Delaware River, a few more are right over the Jersey Shore and a few >> > > others are just offshore. >> > > The National Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Watch for the North >> > > Carolina coast....additional watches are likely further north today, >> > > tonight and tomorrow. The earliest time for a Hurricane Watch in New >> > Jersey >> > > is >> > > late tonight or tomorrow morning. >> > > We are still 2 1/2 days away from impact, but given the trends of the >> > > forecast guidance, our area should prepare for, and expect, hurricane >> > > conditions on Saturday night and Sunday with the possibility of a direct >> > > landfall >> > > on New Jersey, which has not occurred since 1903. >> > > Assuming that Irene reaches Category 4 status later today, strikes >> > eastern >> > > North Carolina on Saturday afternoon as a Category 3 storm and then >> > > tracks over or just east of our area as a Category 1 storm, wind gusts of >> > > 80mph >> > > are possible Sunday morning with perhaps 90 mph south of Atlantic City. >> > > Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected throughout the area. >> > > Rain will begin Saturday afternoon well in advance of Irene >> > > A storm surge of 3 to 4 feet is possible on the Jersey Shore which will >> > > cause coastal flooding in the back bays. Along the oceanfront, the >> > > landscape has changed dramatically over the last 15 years with sand >> > > replenishment >> > > and the installation of dune protection systems on many beaches. The >> > > beaches are wider than then were when previous hurricanes passed by in >> > > 1944, >> > > 1954, 1960 and 1985 and caused boardwalk damage. The wider beaches will >> > > certainly help, but the elevation has not changed so complete washover of >> > > the >> > > beaches is likely. The dune protection systems will be put to the test by >> > > Irene. >> > > Irene will be north of the area around mid-afternoon on Sunday at which >> > > time strong east winds will shift to the west and skies will rapidly >> > clear. >> > > >> > > Today is a good day to begin preliminary preparations such as removing or >> > > securing loose outdoor items, fueling automobiles, and ensuring >> > > flashlights are working. >> > > I will continue to provide a daily e-mail update through Sunday however, >> > > I will post updates on the web site from without sending an additional >> > > e-mail so check back from time to time. I will post the next update >> > around >> > > 4:00. >> > > >> > > AUGUST 24TH - 7:00 PM - BRIEF UPDATE >> > > Model data since midday has been indicating a track closer to the NJ >> > coast >> > > with the consensus of the data showing Irene passing within 50 miles of >> > > the coast before making landfall on central Long Island. One of the most >> > > trusted long range models is even closer than that. The models runs >> > > tonight will be viewed with much interest. Obviously, a track this close >> > > really >> > > increases the concern for us for damaging winds and coastal flooding. >> > > Full update in the morning, but if this westward trend holds overnight, >> > the >> > > >> > > forecast tomorrow will be a more dire than what was issued today. >> > > AUGUST 24TH >> > > At Noon, Hurricane Irene was moving through the southeastern Bahamas with >> > > a clearly defined eye and maximum winds of 115mph. Irene will likely >> > > continue to slowly strengthen today and Thursday and probably reach its >> > > peak >> > > strength of around 140mph sometime on Thursday. >> > > Forecast guidance has trended slightly east and that is reducing the >> > > possibility of a direct hit on New Jersey...but that does not diminish >> > the >> > > fact >> > > that we will have a very large and powerful hurricane moving through the >> > > nearby offshore waters. >> > > Best track estimate now is for Irene to be near the North Carolina Outer >> > > Banks on Saturday afternoon and near eastern Long Island on Sunday >> > > afternoon. >> > > For the Jersey Shore, even though rain will likely begin during the day >> > on >> > > Saturday, the worst effects are likely to be between midnight Saturday >> > > night to early afternoon on Sunday. >> > > If Irene takes the estimated track described above, the Jersey Shore >> > > would experience very heavy rains, wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph, tidal >> > > flooding >> > > and complete washover of the beaches. Please remember we are still days >> > > away from impact and there are still other track options to >> > > consider.....the >> > > above is just to give an idea of what would occur should Irene take that >> > > type of track. >> > > Will continue to monitor and update daily, more frequent updates will >> > > occur should anything change. >> > > AUGUST 23RD >> > > At Noon, Hurricane Irene was headed towards the southeastern Bahamas with >> > > maximum sustained winds of 100mph. After strengthening last evening, >> > > Irene's intensity has leveled off due to interaction with the mountainous >> > > terrain of the Dominican Republic and Haiti to the south of the storm >> > > center. >> > > As Irene continues to move further away, another round of strengthening >> > > should occur. >> > > Forecast guidance has shifted a bit to the east and is moving Irene a bit >> > > faster. Given the latest data, landfall appears likely along the eastern >> > > North Carolina coast between Morehead City and the Outer Banks on >> > Saturday >> > > afternoon. >> > > From that point, the big question is how much of an easterly component >> > > will Irene take along its general northward motion. A track slightly east >> > > of >> > > due north will bring a dangerous track from Norfolk, VA to Ocean City, MD >> > > to along the Jersey Shore to Long Island. A bit more easterly component >> > > brings the hurricane back over the water east of Norfolk, 50 to 100 miles >> > > east of NJ followed by landfall on eastern Long Island or southeastern >> > New >> > > England. >> > > Those two scenarios appear to be range we are looking at today. An >> > > inland track to our west does not appear likely as this time. The big >> > > questions >> > > are how strong is the western Atlantic ridge which will act to keep the >> > > hurricane close to the coast versus how strong is a trough moving into >> > the >> > > area from the west which will try to push Irene offshore. >> > > Although landfall on North Carolina will certainly weaken Irene, she will >> > > not weaken as rapidly as must tropical systems do when they pass north of >> > > North Carolina. The prevailing westerlies associated with the jet stream >> > > that usually reside over our area are displaced well to the north; >> > > therefore, Irene will not be sheared apart and will experience a much >> > more >> > > favorable upper air environment than that which is climatologically >> > > expected at >> > > our latitude. >> > > Large swells will likely arrive on the coastal waters on Friday. No >> > > matter what track Irene takes, rain and wind will follow on Sunday. The >> > > question is whether the winds are just gusty squalls or very strong and >> > > damaging. >> > > Tides are astronomically high over the weekend, so coastal flooding will >> > > be a concern. >> > > As Irene moves through the Bahama islands today and Wednesday, conditions >> > > appear favorable for strengthening and Irene certainly has the potential >> > > to be a Category 4 hurricane (135 mph + winds) at on Wednesday and >> > > Thursday. >> > > Will continue to monitor trends and guidance...all are urged to keep >> > > abreast of the latest updates >> > > >> > > © Tri-State Storm Watch. All rights reserved. >> > > If you are unable to read this e-mail, please go to: >> > >_http://www.tristatestormwatch.com/pages/forecast_ >> > > (http://www.tristatestormwatch.com/pages/forecast) . >> > > Tri-State Storm Watch 1234 Any Street Shark River Hills NJ USA >> > > If you do not wish to receive messages from us,_click here_ >> > > ( >> > > >> > http://www.tristatestormwatch.com/livesite/unsubscribe.php?email_address=asburysteve@aol >> > > .com) . >> > > >> > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > >> > >> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] >> > >> > >> > >> > ------------------------------------ >> > >> > Yahoo! Groups Links >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > ------------------------------------ >> > >> > Yahoo! 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