steve herman, 610 sewall ave
____________________________________
From: r...@tristatestormwatch.com
To: asburyst...@aol.com
Sent: 10/23/2012 11:34:21 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time
Subj: Weather Update - October 23rd
Approaching StormPOTENTIAL FOR SEVERE EAST COAST STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK
TROPICAL STORM, LIKELY TO BE HURRICANE, SANDY COULD BE FORCED WESTWARD BY
MASSIVE BLOCKING OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC AND BE CAPTURED BY DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US....RESULTING IN A VERY UNUSUAL AND VERY
DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT
Membership Feedback
TUESDAY - OCTOBER 23RD - 9AM
A highly anomalous weather pattern over North America has the potential to
conspire to create a powerful and damaging storm across a large portion
of the northeast U.S. East Coast early next week.
The initial player in all of this is Tropical Storm Sandy which developed
Monday over the Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica. Sandy will be
strengthening and moving northward across Jamaica and eastern Cuba over the
next few
days. By the end of the work week, Sandy will be over the Bahamas, moving
into a region of increasing sheer and encountering the westerlies which
would normally push the storm eastward and harmlessly out to sea.
Not so fast....
The pattern in the higher latitudes features a lot of blocking,
particularly over the northwest Atlantic east of Canada. The is the first big
question of the upcoming forecast, does this block impede Sandy from moving
north and eastward or can Sandy move under the block and out to sea. Right
now, it appears as though Sandy will drift northward off the east coast over
the weekend and slowly undergo transition from a tropical system to a
non-tropical (Nor'Easter) type storm. At this point, a shot of very cold air
will be moving southward from Canada and carving out a trough of low
pressure over the eastern U.S. The trough will drive south and east
underneath
Sandy and take on a negative tilt, which means the flow up above will be
from southeast to northwest.
This trough will also serve to deepen Sandy through baroclinic processes.
The guidance strengthens the storm to an extremely low pressure to the
degree that it would be one of the most powerful storms ever recorded near
our latitude. Then the big question becomes does the trough "capture" Sandy
and force the storm northwestward and into the coastline. Some of the
computer guidance suggests this will happen, some south of us, some north of
us.
There are two historical precedents for this type of
interaction...Hurricane Hazel in 1954 and the "Perfect Storm" in 1991. The
capture and
transformation of Hazel took place south and west of us. Hazel made landfall
in
South Carolina and brought hurricane force winds from South Carolina to
Canada. The perfect storm was captured further east so it never made it all
the way back to the coast but it did cause tidal flooding from the Bahamas
through New England. The potential capture of this storm would be closer
to our area....east of Hazel/west of the perfect storm which is bad news
for our area.
If this entire scenario is not unusual enough, if the storm backs into
the coast, there would be a massive snow event over the mountains of central
PA, VA and WV.
It is too early to predict if this storm will directly affect our area.
The timeframe would be next Monday/Tuesday. If the storm is captured and
tugged into the coast, the potential with this storm is very high and
damaging winds, heavy rain and severe coastal flooding.
For now its a wait and see attitude for the next several days.
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Tri-State Storm Watch 1234 Any Street Shark River Hills NJ USA
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