The Taipan Group's 247profits e-Dispatch
Baltimore, New York, Chicago, Berlin, Bonn, London and Paris
September 1-2, 2004
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***Big dividend news on our US real-estate and mortgage play,
Impac Mortgage Holdings, Inc. US construction spending on the
rise... more updates below...
***The market is doing its usual "one step forward, two steps
back" routine in what is rapidly turning out to be a lost
week...
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>From the Desk of J. Christoph Amberger
Dear Friend,
I half expected the European media to be awash in headlines
deploring the martyrdom of three people in Saudi Arabia who fell
prey to Western-style consumer terrorism.
In the port city of Jeddah, three people were killed and sixteen
more were injured in the heroic attempt to lay hold of credit
vouchers to an IKEA outlet.
We do not claim to know what celestial rewards await them. (We
only hope they will not involve 72 IKEA cafeteria ladies serving
Swedish meatballs.)
But we concede it was a high price to pay for US$150 off Billy
bookshelves and lingonberry syrup.
***The Institute of Supply Management today announced that its
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of manufacturing activity fell
to 59 in August from 62 in July. Any reading above 50 indicates
growth in the sector - which makes August the fifteenth straight
month of manufacturing growth.
US construction spending, meanwhile, rose by 0.4% in July to a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of US$997.23 billion, from an
upwardly revised US$992.90 pace in June - a fresh record.
Private residential construction spending grew 0.3% to US$537.50
billion from US$536.13 billion. Overall, private construction
rose 0.4% to US$758.29 billion, with public construction jumping
0.6% to US$238.94 billion.
Non-residential construction, usually seen as a money-on-the-
table indicator of business confidence, rose 0.8% to US$220.79
billion, reversing two months of declines.
Meanwhile, our favorite US real-estate and mortgage play, Impac
Mortgage Holdings, Inc., announced that it has declared a
preferred stock dividend of US$0.58594 per share for the period
beginning on July 1, 2004, and ending September 30, 2004. That's
for the company's 9.375% Series B Cumulative Redeemable
Preferred Stock (IMHPRB). The dividend will be paid on September
30, 2004, to stockholders of record as of September 10, 2004.
The ex- dividend date will be September 8, 2004.
We, of course, are in the common stock... and as such still
waiting for the announcements of its dividend dates.
***The man who pinpointed the tops in the NASDAQ, S&P and
Russell 2000 now says... "Get 15.2 times richer by Election Day
2004."
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Earnings Announcements for Thursday, September 2, 2004:
Crossroads Systems, Del Monte Corp., Esterline Technologies,
Finisar Corp., Mandalay Resort Group, Pall Corp., Shuffle Master
Inc., Spartech Corp., Stratos International Inc., and Worldwide
Restaurant Concepts are some of the companies releasing
earnings.
***Quote of the Day:
"I respect those who have different opinions, but I have little
regard for those who bend with the wind."
--Ted Koch, August 31, 2004
***WORLD OF PROFITS***
*** "Our indicators now are once again working against each
other in a way that allows no clear prognosis. We hedge our bet
for a breakeven day with a recurring downside near minus 0.6%."
Hong Kong did not heed our indicators, charging ahead with a
bullish day that pushed the Hang Seng up to 13,023.87, a gain of
173.59 points (1.35%).
At this point, it becomes difficult to see whether the
indicators continue a truly bullish course... or whether they're
merely playing catch-up. We therefore limit our upside
expectation to 0.5%, while retaining yesterday's downside risk.
*** "While no clear direction of the index can be discerned from
our indicators today, we think the Nikkei will continue to move
in tight tracks between 11,000 and 11,100 for the next two
days."
Today, the Nikkei 225 exceeded our indicators' expectations by
closing the day at 11,127.35, up 45.56 points (0.41%).
The indicators point to the possibility that there's another
0.5% to be tickled out of the index by Friday.
***DESK OF DENHOLM***
This just in from Taipan's resident Editor-at-Large, Martin
Denholm:
***If you look at the Drudge Report's website, you'll see that
it's once again labeling the latest hurricane (Frances) a
"hellstorm" as it whips its way towards the Bahamas and Florida.
Seen the size of that thing? Apparently, it's twice as big as
Charley. Time to get the heck out of Dodge!
At Taipan HQ here in downtown Baltimore, my day also got off to
a hellish start when my computer decided to "fry and die." It
couldn't even muster the strength to boot up. So much for my
diligence, arriving at 8:15 this morning! Hopefully, e-Dispatch
Managing Editor Ned Humphrey will have an eagle eye on today's
message, since all my settings are messed up.
Once I was able to log on to the Internet this morning, I saw I
hadn't missed much. The market was doing its usual "one step
forward, two steps back" routine in what is rapidly turning out
to be a lost week - with the RNC in New York, nervous investors
casting an eye towards the August jobs report on Friday morning,
and the Labor Day weekend.
Did you know that September has posted a losing record every
year since 1998? In fact, contrary to popular belief, September
is historically the worst month of the year for stocks.
Many folks would say October. And while that month witnessed
enormous one-off crashes in both 1927 and 1987, its reputation
for being a miserable month is a little unfair. According to the
Stock Trader's Almanac, it's actually gained an average 0.8%
each year since 1950. Alternatively, you'd have lost 38% of your
money had you traded only in September since that time, with the
average monthly loss on the S&P 500 totaling 0.7%.
And this particular September seems to have the chips stacked
against it already. Packing winds of around 140 mph, Hurricane
Frances could potentially wreak "Andrew-sized" devastation. In
addition, pre-election terror threats persist, economic numbers
are unspectacular, and volatile oil prices continue to weigh on
the market.
***Top of the G7 Class. As if beating the Americans 2-to-1 in
the World Cup hockey game in Montreal last night wasn't enough,
the Canadians also surpassed their southern neighbors in the
economic growth department during the second quarter. And how!
Statistics Canada reported today that GDP growth surged to an
annualized 4.3% rate between April and June - the fastest in two
years. And after some careful review of the figures, the agency
also revised first-quarter growth up from a previously estimated
2.4% to 3%. How about those busy Canadians!
That meant Canada finished at the head of the class among the G7
nations in second-quarter economic growth. The US recorded a
2.8% growth rate, with Japan notching up 1.7%. Jolly old Britain
posted 3.7% growth.
A 5% rise in exports drove the gains - the biggest advance since
1997, offsetting a slight slowdown in consumer spending.
Canada's current account surplus swelled to C$10.4 billion (US$8
billion) for the quarter - the second-best figure on record.
While some economists see growth cooling to a 3.3% annualized
rate by the end of the year, these figures could all but assure
that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates for the first
time since April 2003 when the monetary policy committee meets
on Sunday.
***TAIPAN TIDINGS***
***A Dangerous Market for the Unprepared!
You must act immediately to prepare for the volatile market
ahead.
Current economic, political and security factors are forming a
turbulent market climate that will bring masses of unprepared
investors to their knees.
But a select few inventors who see it coming - and act
accordingly - will prosper.
Don't be left out. View the Full Report right here:
http://www.youreletters.com/t/53724/3785361/645928/70/
J. Christoph Amberger
Executive Publisher
and The Taipan Group's
247profits e-Dispatch Team
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Copyright � 2004 by Taipan Group LLC. All rights reserved. The
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