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Sandinistas Hope for Ballot Win
5 September 2001

Summary

Nicaraguan voters will go to the polls Nov. 4 to elect a new president, with
former Marxist ruler Daniel Ortega in a strong position to win. A victory by
the Sandinista leader would fundamentally change the balance of power in
Central America to the detriment of U.S. economic and strategic interests as
well as continue the spread of leftist leaders in Latin America.

Analysis

Daniel Ortega, the former Marxist guerrilla who ruled Nicaragua for 11 years
in the 1980s, is in a strong position to win that country's presidential
election on Nov. 4. New voter surveys conducted in August show current Vice
President Enrique Bolanos, of the incumbent Liberal Constitutionalist Party,
running neck-and-neck with Ortega, of the Marxist Sandinista National
Liberation Front. But analysts in Managua and other Central American capitals
say Ortega is actually maintaining a slight popular edge over Bolanos.

If Ortega wins, it would reinforce Latin America's emerging tilt toward the
election of left-leaning candidates opposed to globalization and free-trade
policies such as those advocated by the Bush administration. Washington is
also concerned that if Ortega wins the presidency, the strategic balance of
power in Central America could be altered in ways detrimental to U.S.
economic and security interests.



Ortega wants to align Nicaragua more closely with Cuba, Venezuela and Libya,
and if elected, will likely join the multi-polar anti-American alliance that
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is promoting globally. Ortega also can be
expected to oppose a Free Trade Area of the Americas anchored on the economy
of the United States and favor instead closer commercial ties with the South
American Common Market (Mercosur) and European Union.





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