RE: With only 5 days left...

[Michael Turner]

Joel Janssen writes: "Again I am not a rocket scientist and I do not have the experience and wisdom that you all have but I fully believe that our future is in the private sector not in government funded projects."   I tend to agree (with the caveat that governments often play an economic multiplier role in capitalist economies with transportation infrastructure projects), but the question is: how soon we will really see this?   SpaceShipOne was an exciting event, but a closer look at the technology (inappropriate for *orbital* flight) should be taken together with a closer look at the playing field.  In fact, Scaled Composites was, out of a supposedly wide field of X Prize contenders, the only company that was even close to having a workable craft - pretty remarkable when you consider how many years the contest was open.  Scaled Composites won in part because they had a technology advantage, but also a great financial advantage: Paul Allen's $20 million.   Scaled Composites is famous for Burt Rutan and his company's conspicuous achievements in aeronautical engineering.  And it's a private company.  However, a close look at the company's successful projects reveals that they get the vast majority of their ordinary revenue from public spending on aeronautics R&D (directly or indirectly.)  SpaceShipOne was indirectly made possible with the expertise developed while spending taxpayers' money.   Well, how about Paul Allen's money?  Surely that was entirely a product of pure market competition, wasn't it?  Well, no.  It took a long time for the U.S. Department of Justice to catch up with the implications of increasing-returns theory in economics, and how it specifically applies to IT and software.  And by then, Microsoft owned the desktop.  Microsoft stockholder wealth is not so much the product of competition as it is the product of a lack of competition, and in some cases outright squelching of competition.   I can be accused of downgrading the actual SpaceShipOne achievement, but really, I'm not.  What I'm trying to do is to put the private launch industry into perspective.  I love programs like CubeSat, that allow college students to design small space experiments and launch them on the Russian/Ukrainian Dnepr rocket on a (relative) shoestring.  Behind this, however, is the fact that even private colleges are about 50% government funded, when you get right down to the exact funding sources, and the Dnepr itself was largely paid for by Cold War government defense spending - it's a retread of the SS-18.  When your CubeSat goes up, you're not paying the full costs of launch. I love Space Adventures for having put two paying customers in orbit, but realistically, without both Russian and American spending on space, Space Adventures would have nothing to work with - no bus to orbit, no hotel in space.  Tito and Shuttleworth paid about $20M each, perhaps, but the real costs of their transport and lodgins were probably double or triple that ticket price, when you figure the costs of capital (if space were privately funded) and the costs of building ISS.   It's still all basically subsidized, one way or another, and it's a long haul before we're out of that phase of space development.  For the duration, orbital space efforts - not just suborbital jaunts - have to use government as a springboard.  Even Robert Bigelow seems to have backed down on his talk of inflatable space hotels, and aims instead at providing orbital laboratories.  Bigelow Aerospace's first serious customer for any such habitat is likely to be someone funded by a government.  It's just the way things are now, and it'll take a good long time for that picture to change significantly.   Enthusiasm, ambitious goals, hard work - these are all important things.  But history is littered with failures despite ample quantities of these essential ingredients, for a simple failure to be realistic.   -michael turner [EMAIL PROTECTED]       -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]On Behalf Of Meldrak Sent: Wednesday, March 02, 2005 12:20 PM To: europa@klx.com Subject: RE: With only 5 days left... My name is Joel Janssen.  I am a poor college student and only joined the list in the last week.   I may be speaking out of turn as a student and not a scientist but everything said below is with the utmost respect for all of you and what you have tried to accomplish here:                 Space exploration is in our future and it will only be accomplished if we work hard and never waiver from our goals.  Anything is possible and in my opinion space exploration is not in the hands of governments but in our hands.  Private individuals, small groups of like minded individuals, small businesses, and even small and large corporations are the ones who will dominate the space industry in the future.  Mickey is right in the fact that the war on terrorism sapped money from other government programs like NASA; but look what Rutan and Allen did with spaceship one.  It cost a lot of money but they funded it and built it themselves and their unique design (while it only went to the edge of space) changed the way I look at space travel completely and paved the way for future private endeavors. Look at what the UT students did this last week when they won the prize to design a satellite for less than $100,000 and now get to make that design a reality and launch it.  If current technology does not fit your needs you invent new technology that does.  Again I am not a rocket scientist and I do not have the experience and wisdom that you all have but I fully believe that our future is in the private sector not in government funded projects.  I remember the first time I looked at a picture of Europa, I can still bring that image to my mind.  Images like it fueled my dreams as a kid and it still does … every day. I personally, have set goals for my lifetime that are non-negotiable.  I will go to space even if I have to build a spaceship in my backyard and I want to explore the asteroid belt.  I will not let anything deter me and no person or obstacle can stand in my way.  To quote someone less real but no less honorable than the respected scientists and others you have all quoted in the last week … Willy Wonka: “We are the musicmakers … we are the dreamers of the dreams.”   Seems to me that the real question is: How bad do you want it?   Never give up on your dreams! Respectfully, Joel Janssen     [EMAIL PROTECTED]     From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Schmidt Mickey D Civ HQ USAFA/DF Sent: Tuesday, March 01, 2005 9:35 AM To: europa@klx.com Subject: RE: With only 5 days left...   I got started on this when we were still talking about how to demonstrate a heated object could penetrate ice. I am sorry to see it ending. I hope that an alternative site becomes available if/when the US and other can decide to use nuclear rockets for propulsion and nuclear power for providing energy in space. I think that will be a long while. The war on terrorism will sap funds needed for space exploration so much so that I imagine GW Bush’s statements about going to the Moon and Mars will be as dead as the Hubble repair seems to be … I just hope the space station can be completed and a replacement for the shuttle can be built sooner rather than later.   It’s been interesting to read all your inputs even if I haven’t had so many myself.   Mickey Schmidt   -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of LARRY KLAES Sent: Monday, February 28, 2005 5:14 PM To: europa Subject: With only 5 days left...   I hope everyone on this list will at least give their thoughts and ideas on how we can explore Europa.  You need not be a rocket scientist to do so.  In fact, that might bring a refreshing perspective to look at the problem in another way.   Larry