I’ve studied the polls and the electoral map for months, and I no longer believe that John McCain can win. Unless Barack Obama slips up, Jeremiah Wright shows up or a serious national security emergency flares up, Obama will become the 44th president of the United States.*
The wayward wizards of Wall Street delivered the election to Obama by pushing the economy to the verge of collapse, forcing leery voters to choose between their pocketbooks and their prejudices. McCain delivered it to Obama with his reckless pick of Sarah Palin. That stunt made everything that followed feel like a stunt, tarnishing McCain’s reputation and damaging his credibility so that when he went negative it backfired. And, some radical rabble among McCain’s supporters delivered it to Obama by mistaking his political rallies for lynch mobs. This perfect storm of poor judgments has set the stage for an Obama victory. It’s over. Fast forward to Nov. 5. President-elect Obama (yes, get used to it) could wake up that morning as one of the most powerful presidents in recent American history. Not only is his party likely to maintain control of both houses of the Congress, it could dramatically strengthen its hand. According to a New York Times/CBS News poll released this week, the percentage of people who say that they approve of the way their own member of Congress is handling his or her job has never been lower and the percentage who say they disapprove has only been higher once before: on the verge of the Republican Revolution in 1994 when the Republicans picked up 54 seats in the House and 8 in the Senate. But this time voters seem to be more disenchanted with Republicans than with Democrats. In November 1994, the Republican Party’s favorable rating was 54 percent and the Democrats’ was 44 percent. In the most recent poll, the Democrats’ favorable rating was 52 percent and the Republicans’ was 37 percent. Some think that the Democrats could even pass the magic 60 mark in the Senate, providing them with a filibuster-proof majority. The last president to enjoy that advantage was Jimmy Carter. Add to that the possibility of Obama appointing several justices to the Supreme Court (Carter didn’t appoint any) and the probability of him receiving an enthusiastic embrace from the international community, and we could see an administration unlike any we’ve seen for more than a generation. Obama would make history by simply assuming office. But then, the question of governance: could this gifted, 47-year-old, first-term senator with a razor-thin political résumé harness his enormous power to push through an agenda that would meet our daunting challenges and secure our future? History will be the judge, but on Nov. 5, it’s on. *If I’m wrong, I’ll take my crow with a six pack of Liquid-Plumr. Published: October 17, 2008 It’s over. Charles M. Blow New York Times if (acm.rc) acm.rc.write(); __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around http://mail.yahoo.com
