https://gcc.gnu.org/bugzilla/show_bug.cgi?id=112325

--- Comment #11 from Hongtao Liu <liuhongt at gcc dot gnu.org> ---

>    Loop body is likely going to simplify further, this is difficult
>    to guess, we just decrease the result by 1/3.  */
> 

This is introduced by r0-68074-g91a01f21abfe19

/* Estimate number of insns of completely unrolled loop.  We assume
+   that the size of the unrolled loop is decreased in the
+   following way (the numbers of insns are based on what
+   estimate_num_insns returns for appropriate statements):
+
+   1) exit condition gets removed (2 insns)
+   2) increment of the control variable gets removed (2 insns)
+   3) All remaining statements are likely to get simplified
+      due to constant propagation.  Hard to estimate; just
+      as a heuristics we decrease the rest by 1/3.
+
+   NINSNS is the number of insns in the loop before unrolling.
+   NUNROLL is the number of times the loop is unrolled.  */
+
+static unsigned HOST_WIDE_INT
+estimated_unrolled_size (unsigned HOST_WIDE_INT ninsns,
+                        unsigned HOST_WIDE_INT nunroll)
+{
+  HOST_WIDE_INT unr_insns = 2 * ((HOST_WIDE_INT) ninsns - 4) / 3;
+  if (unr_insns <= 0)
+    unr_insns = 1;
+  unr_insns *= (nunroll + 1);
+
+  return unr_insns;
+}

And r0-93444-g08f1af2ed022e0 try do it more accurately by marking
likely_eliminated stmt and minus that from total insns, But 2 / 3 is still
keeped.

+/* Estimate number of insns of completely unrolled loop.
+   It is (NUNROLL + 1) * size of loop body with taking into account
+   the fact that in last copy everything after exit conditional
+   is dead and that some instructions will be eliminated after
+   peeling.

-   NINSNS is the number of insns in the loop before unrolling.
-   NUNROLL is the number of times the loop is unrolled.  */
+   Loop body is likely going to simplify futher, this is difficult
+   to guess, we just decrease the result by 1/3.  */

 static unsigned HOST_WIDE_INT
-estimated_unrolled_size (unsigned HOST_WIDE_INT ninsns,
+estimated_unrolled_size (struct loop_size *size,
                         unsigned HOST_WIDE_INT nunroll)
 {
-  HOST_WIDE_INT unr_insns = 2 * ((HOST_WIDE_INT) ninsns - 4) / 3;
+  HOST_WIDE_INT unr_insns = ((nunroll)
+                            * (HOST_WIDE_INT) (size->overall
+                                               -
size->eliminated_by_peeling));
+  if (!nunroll)
+    unr_insns = 0;
+  unr_insns += size->last_iteration -
size->last_iteration_eliminated_by_peeling;
+
+  unr_insns = unr_insns * 2 / 3;
   if (unr_insns <= 0)
     unr_insns = 1;
-  unr_insns *= (nunroll + 1);

It looks to me 1 / 3 overestimates the instructions that can be optimised away,
especially if we've subtracted eliminated_by_peeling

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