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Financial Times
October 21 2005
Pakistan fears labour shortage after quake
By Farhan Bokhari in Islamabad
The high death toll from Pakistan's earthquake has prompted anxiety that
the country may face labour shortages in its industry and businesses as
family members of the victims return to the region affected by the quake.
The concern comes amid reports that thousands of low-paid employees are
returning home from cities such as Karachi, Pakistan's main business
centre, and Lahore, the country's second-largest city.
Central and southern Pakistan rely on workers from areas such as Pakistan's
northern territory and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, areas where the
economy is driven largely by nomadic herdsmen raising cattle and some farming.
"My wife, mother and mother-in-law have all died in the earthquake," says
Saleem Khan, a Kashmiri driver for a bank in Karachi, who carries a sackful
of food supplies as he boards a bus out of Islamabad. "I don't see how I
would ever return to my job." Asmat Abbassi, an office clerk in Lahore,
lost his two children. "My wife is so traumatised that I don't see myself
leaving Kashmir for work elsewhere in Pakistan," he says.
Up to half a million men working in Karachi came from Pakistan's northern
regions and Kashmir, says Aaliya Dosa, senior vice-president of Arif Habib
Securities in Karachi.
"It's hard to tell how many of these workers were directly affected," she
says. Anecdotal evidence suggests there are many, but she adds: "In the
short term, it's possible that many may want to bring their families out of
the quake-hit region to the relative security of big cities." In large
cities, sharply rising rental prices over the past five years have made it
almost impossible for low- to medium-income employees to afford a house for
their families as well as schooling for children.
"Much depends on how the reconstruction takes off," says Sakib Sherani,
chief economist in Pakistan for ABN-Amro, the Dutch bank.
"If there is as much money pouring in to the earthquake-hit region as the
government estimates, it is possible many people would find jobs closer to
home."
Analysts say Monday's international conference of prospective western
donors in Geneva will be crucial.
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