I don't think anyone claimed that MP3 was the last word in digital
audio formats, and if Fraunhofer's licensing becomes too restrictive,
the world will find something else to replace it. In the end, if
the open standards are compelling, they will prevail. For instance,
if Gopher had been free, we might be using that today instead of HTTP,
and the worldwide web would be somewhat different.
MD/ATRAC's advantage at this point is that you can store more bits in a
form factor that is very convenient, so the fidelity is typically better
than portable (i.e., low bitrate) MP3's. Once there is something that
sounds "good enough" and stores more music, I believe the general public
will find that more compelling than MD/ATRAC.
There are other compressed audio formats that could find an opportunity
if Fraunhofer were to choke off MP3. For example, there's Dolby AAC,
used in equipment like broadcast digicarts, and Philips PASC, invented
for DCC -- remember that? DCC is dead, so how much would Philips have
to lose if they were to adapt PASC to lower bitrates and open the
licensing? (Hypothetical point -- PASC technology might not be
amenable to such extensions). Philips could always save the latest and
best versions to the folks who paid big licensing royalties, and allow
the free software zealots to dink with the open versions.
I believe that there must be an compresed, open digital audio format
because the general direction of progress points that way. The evolution
of societies and commerce point to a world where the middlemen are
gradually squeezed thinner and thinner. (Tea traders in the 18th
century were pretty hot stuff, remember?) In this century, the record
labels are getting in the way of musical creativity, and growing fat
because of it. But how many recording artists are actually making more
money because of increased unit prices on CDs in the past few years?
This is why MP3 or its successors are compelling, not because of piracy.
Raising a battle cry of "MD Forever!" will be merely holding the Maginot
Line unless MD and ATRAC evolve to meet the challenges that will arise.
Anyone who claims otherwise probably hasn't lived long enough to watch
a favorite technology superceded by a newer one.
Romain Kang Siemens Info/Comm Products, San Jose R&D
[EMAIL PROTECTED] formerly Pyramid Technology Corp.
Disclaimer: I represent myself alone, except where otherwise indicated.
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