Dear Mr /Ms Chizcake ??? ....
Jika dipikiran anda demikian terhadap ML ... tidak perlu di baca setiap
researchnya yg di release, maaf ... Mr/Ms Chizcake ??? Jika ML tukang tipu
...artinya dia berhasil tipuin investor sedunia yg nota bene total dana
kelolaannya mencapai triliunan US $.(betapa banyaknya jumlah orang bodoh di
dunia ini yg berhasil di tipu ML)
Jike demikian kita bisa belajar dari anda agar tidak tertipu lagi krn anda
orang hebat yg tidak bisa di tipu ML atau ... ??? & seberapa cermatnya anda
bisa memberikan research tentang invesatsi di capital market ...
Jika anda bisa memberikan research yg lebih bagus dari ML & anda bukan tukang
tipu ... kita bisa coba pikirkan minta tolong anda u/ kelola beberapa investasi
kami di Indonesia
pls be carefull with your statement !!!!
Regards
James Liem
chizcake chiz <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
ml bukannya tukank tipu.. ?
James Liem <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Location permit granted, sustainable growth envisioned
SGRO has been granted a location permit for 11,300ha in Kalimantan, adding to
a
total of 103,738ha of undeveloped land. Conversion into land rights is
expected
within a year, with SGRO planning to begin planting around 8,400ha in
Kalimantan next year. Effectively, the permit should extend its planting
program to
a total of 24,200ha (from 17,000ha) between 2010 and 2012, on our estimate.
4Q07 turnaround is confirmed
On its press release dated 12 Dec, SGRO stated that November FFB production
hit another record high, following a robust October production. YTD, total FFB
production has reached 1mn tons, ahead of our estimate that has factored-in a
strong 4Q07 turnaround. Oil extraction rate has also improved, after two
consecutive declines in September and October.
FY07E earnings raised by 20% on higher CPO production
We have raised this yearÂ’s FFB and CPO production estimates by 12% and 8%,
respectively, while conservatively keeping 2008-09E production intact. Our
production upgrade leads to 8% increase in FY07 sales estimates and 2% higher
margins. We now expect core earnings to be Rp218bn, 20% higher than our
previous estimate.
Price objective raised to Rp4,250, 29% potential upside
Following the granting of the location permit, we raise our price objective to
Rp4,250 from Rp3,750, using a blended 15x forward P/E and DCF, to reflect our
robust long-term outlook on SGRO. Our DCF-derived fair value uses RM2,000/mt
as the long-term CPO price, and a discount rate of 12.5%, as well as terminal
growth of 7.1%. We maintain our Buy rating.
��
Estimates (Dec) (Rp) 2005A 2006A 2007E 2008E 2009E
Net Income (Adjusted - mn) 58,106 114,421 218,491 434,879 473,234
EPS 111.23 217.65 139.60 230.09 250.39
EPS Change (YoY) -45.5% 95.7% -35.9% 64.8% 8.8%
Dividend / Share 0 0 0 0 0
Free Cash Flow / Share 102.57 420.78 (96.03) 91.59 21.85
Valuation (Dec)
2005A 2006A 2007E 2008E 2009E
P/E 29.89x 15.28x 23.82x 14.45x 13.28x
Dividend Yield 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
EV / EBITDA* 34.65x 24.18x 13.50x 8.36x 7.62x
Free Cash Flow Yield* 0.845% 3.47% -1.84% 2.75% 0.657%
* For full definitions of
iQmethod SM measures, see page 7. Price Objective
Change
BUY Equity | Indonesia | Plantations
12 December 2007
Verdi Budiman >>
+62 21 515 8588 Research Analyst
PT Merrill Lynch (Indonesia)
v [EMAIL PROTECTED]
��
Stock Data Price Rp3,325
Price Objective Rp3,750 to Rp4,250
Date Established 12-Dec-2007
Investment Opinion C-1-7
Volatility Risk HIGH
52-Week Range Rp1,800-Rp3,475
Mrkt Val / Shares Out (mn) US$678 / 1,890.0
Average Daily Volume 23,284,366
ML Symbol / Exchange XSPOF / JKT
Bloomberg / Reuters SGRO IJ / SGRO.JK
ROE (2007E) 23.5%
Net Dbt to Eqty (Dec-1899A) 12.0%
Est. 5-Yr EPS / DPS Growth 16.2% / 22.4%
F ree Float 20.0%
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