http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/id.9185/pub_detail.asp
April 7, 2011 While Engaged in Libya, America Won't Tackle Iran's Nuke Program Dr. Avigdor Haselkorn Print This <javascript:%20printVersion()> E-mail This <javascript:%20emailVersion()> <javascript:void(0);> http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/images/share.png ShareThis <javascript:void(0);> Comments (1) <http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/comments.asp?id=9185> http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/imgLib/20110214_AhmadinejadBomb.jpg Writing in the Wall Street Journal on <http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704517404576223052867524370.h tml> March 29, Israels Ambassador to the U.S. Michael Oren argued, While the allied intercession in Libya may send a message of determination to Iran, it might also stoke the Iranian regimes desire to become a nuclear power and so avoid [Libyan leader Col.] Gadhafis fate. For that reason it is especially vital now to substantiate the [U.S. and Israels] all options [are on the table] policy. Based on the historical record, the Ambassador wrote, Only a credible threat of military intervention can convince nondemocratic regimes to abandon their pursuit of nuclear weapons. The essay could be read in one of two disquieting, if not alarming, ways. The first is that it is as an act of delusional diplomatic advocacy. In the wake of the intervention in Libya, Jerusalem more than ever expects Washington to assume an activist posture versus Iran to deter the latter from proceeding with the bomb. It can even be surmised that save for putting pressure on Washington to act Jerusalem has little to offer in the way of coping with the ever growing Iranian threat to Israels existence. If this is the motive for the Ambassadors case then the Netanyahu government is simply out of touch. If anything the intervention in Libya should worry Israel greatly. While it can be argued that Irans leaders should be alarmed by the assembling of a mighty coalition and the determined action against the Gadhafi regime, and that President Obamas strategy has enhanced Western deterrence generally and vis-à-vis Iran specifically, on closer examination Tehran is likely to draw comfort from Mr. Obamas modus operandi. First, it is now clear that the Obama Administration will not act militarily unless there is an international sanctionpreferably a U.N. Security Council resolution authorizing the use of forcebehind it. Moreover, any attack on a target inside a Moslem country will also need the endorsement of the Arab League and/or an international Islamic body. The U.S. will act only as part of a multilateral coalition and its military role will be supportive rather than central. Finally, any military action will have to be short-lived, and involve minimum cost in American lives not to mention civilian casualties in the target country. In addition to all the putative political and military advantages of this approach, Mr. Obama hopes to demonstrate that his use of the U.S. military instrument is in stark contrast to that of his predecessor George Bush. Yet, it is clear that none of the conditions he has adopted is likely to exist when it comes to Iran. Therefore the likelihood that the Obama Administration will preempt the Iranian nuclear program militarily is nil. If anything, the intervention in Libya threatens to divert Washington for months from the task of tackling the Iranian bomb. If the Libyan operation bogs down, the outcry in the U.S. about its cost (especially given Americas current economic difficulties) and likely consequences is bound to intensify. That would make any further military undertaking by the Obama Administration in the Middle East simply unthinkable. Washington will also abhor any action that might jeopardize the current democratic revolution in the Arab world. As a result any American undertaking that smacks from a new imperialist diktat by the West in the Levant will be shunned for the foreseeable future. An even starker interpretation for the Ambassadors essay is that it is rooted in diplomatic desperation. By going public, so to speak, Mr. Oren indirectly confirms the mounting frustration in Jerusalem regarding Mr. Obamas Iran policy. The Israeli envoy is going behind the White Houses back to call for U.S. public support in favor of a robust stand vis-à-vis Tehran. Indeed, the article could even be read as recognition in the validity of the above analysis indicating continued American inaction in the face of Irans nuclear gambit and a justification in advance for any unilateral Israeli action. A sort of You, Mr. Obama had left us no choice. As the Ambassador himself has put it Does anybody in Tehran believe that all options are truly on the table today? Based on Irans brazen pronouncements, the answer appears to be no. Although preempting the Iranian nuclear program could be viewed as in tandem with promoting world peace and stabilityideals which theoretically fall within the Obama Administrations set of flimsy liberal-humanitarian goals warranting the exercise America's military muscle the Libyan adventure may have finally persuaded Israel that Mr. Obama will not act militarily against Iran mainly because he fears such an undertaking would make him indistinguishable from President Bush. Indeed, it would be an unparalleled irony if a strong ally of the U.S. had no choice but to act even though this would certainly endanger its security and would likely impinge on U.S. strategic interests because the occupant of the White House at the time was obsessed with separating himself from his predecessor. <http://familysecuritymatters.org/> FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributor Avigdor Haselkorn is the author of <http://www.amazon.com/Continuing-Storm-Poisonous-Weapons-Deterrence/dp/0300 075820> The Continuing Storm: Iraq, Poisonous Weapons and Deterrence (Yale University Press). He has also contributed to American Thinker and Haaretz newspaper. Reader Comments: <http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/comments.asp?id=9185> Submit Your Comment (1) | <http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/my_fsm/> Sign Up for FSM Updates! Print This <javascript:%20printVersion()> <javascript:%20emailVersion()> E-mail This <javascript:void(0);> http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/images/share.png ShareThis <javascript:void(0);> <http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/comments.asp?id=9185> Comments (1) _____ i firmly believe obama is a friend to iran for his friend professor khalidi of columbia university has written speeches for irans leader and invited him to speak at columbia university. at the same time obama has done everything he can to endanger israel including the flotillas and backing egypt and the muslim caliphate. obama is a complete impostre and should be impeached now. [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------------------ -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? 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