BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2000
RELEASED TODAY: Labor productivity rose in 1998 in more than three-fourths
of 119 U.S. manufacturing industries. More than two-thirds of the
industries registering productivity growth also posted declines in unit
labor costs. ... In 1998, the most recent year for which underlying data
are available for manufacturing industries, labor productivity -- defined as
output per hour -- increased in 76 percent of the manufacturing industries.
Output rose in 77 percent of the industries, while hours rose in 45 percent
of the industries. ... The share of industries with productivity increases
during the 1990-98 period was even greater. From 1990 to 1998, labor
productivity increased in 93 percent of the manufacturing industries. Output
rose in 87 percent of the industries, while hours rose in 47 percent of the
industries. ...
The proportion of workers employed full time for the entire year climbed to
65.9 percent during 1999, the highest level recorded since the data have
been collected, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. ... The proportion
of minorities employed during 1999 rose at a much faster rate than the
proportion of whites that was employed, although minority unemployment rates
remain higher than the unemployment rate for whites. ... (Daily Labor
Report, page D-7).
Despite evidence of slower growth across the U.S. economy, key labor market
measures pulled together in the Wage Trend Indicator suggest wage pressures
will remain strong into next year, according to the latest report released
by the Bureau of National Affairs. ... Labor shortages are likely to make
it hard for many companies to hire workers over the next few months, the WTI
report suggests. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1).
The Commerce Department says retail sales rose just 0.1 percent in October,
held down by a decline in auto sales. Taking out the auto sector, retail
sales rose 0.4 percent. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-4)_____Sales at
retail stores edged up 0.1 percent in October after a sizzling 0.9 percent
jump the month before. It was the weakest showing since August, when sales
were dampened by a 1 percent drop in purchases of autos. But sales at
hardware stores and building supply centers rose a strong 1.6 percent, after
falling 1.5 percent in September. ... (Washington Post, page E2; New York
Times, page C4)_____Retail sales slowed sharply in October, further
indicating that economic growth has decelerated and that the Federal Reserve
will leave interest rates unchanged when it meets today. ... (Wall Street
Journal, page A2).
A prominent Congressional commission appointed to study the giant American
trade deficit determined that the imbalance has become unsustainably large
and dangerous for the economy, but mostly disagreed on what to do about it.
The assessment by the 12-member commission, split equally among experts
appointed by Democrats and Republicans, reflects growing concern about the
gap between what America sells abroad and what it imports from other nations
has grown too large, from about $30 billion in 1991 to an estimated 450
billion this year, posing a risk to the record-setting economic expansion
and the strength of the dollar. ... (The New York Times, page C2)_____The
bipartisan 12-member commission issued a report warning that growing trade
deficits will have to eventually come down but failing to reach any common
ground on how labor and environmental issues should be treated in future
trade negotiations. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-5).
Small businesses appear to be nervous about the economy, says The Wall
Street Journal (page B17). Despite continued strong business this fall,
companies are scaling back on hiring, inventory building, and capital
spending plans, according to the National Federation of Independent
Business's monthly survey of small-business optimism in October. The NFIB
is the nation's largest small-business lobbying group, with about 500,000
members. Business owners polled who believe it is a good time to expand
fell to 16 percent, lowest in 4 years and down from a record high of 28
percent in December. On average in 1998 and 1999, the figure was 23
percent. ...
Over the past year, economists and economic policymakers have been talking
up the likelihood of a soft landing, in which overheated economic growth
would slow -- but not anywhere near enough to cause an economy-shrinking
recession. The burst in the dot-com bubble, the slowing of job growth, the
decline in the stock market -- all these were said to be consistent with the
much hoped for soft landing. But in recent weeks, some analysts have turned
up the volume on warnings that the landing may be a bit bumpier than first
thought. While recession is still considered unlikely, there is growing
fear that the economy may overshoot the runway. ... The economic risks in
the coming months include another sharp drop in stock prices, another spike
in oil prices, or bigger-than-expected declines in corporate profits that
cause executives to cancel plans for buying new computers and other
equipment. ... (Steven Pearlstein in Washington Post, page E1).
DUE OUT TOMORROW:
Consumer Price Index -- October 2000
Real Earnings: October 2000
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