Poll: McCain's lead slipping in Arizona
http://www.azcapitoltimes.com/story.cfm?id=9577
By Arizona Capitol Times staff
Sen. Barack Obama seems to be closing the gap in Arizona as the number
of undecided voters shrinks, according to a statewide poll that shows
Sen. John McCain holding a 7-point lead in his home state.
McCain led 45 percent to Obama's 38 percent among the 976 registered
voters polled between Sept. 25 and Sept. 28 by the Walter Cronkite
School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State
University and Eight/KAET-TV. Independent candidate Ralph Nader
received 1 percent and Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and Green Party
candidate Cynthia McKinney each received less than 1 percent of the
vote. Sixteen percent were undecided.
Last month, the poll found that McCain led by 10 percentage points. At
that time, McCain had 40 percent of the vote, while Obama drew 30
percent, Nader drew 2 percent, Barr had 1 percent and 27 percent were
undecided.
"At one time, it looked like Arizona was solidly Republican, but now
has become a state in which the Democrats may choose to actively
campaign," according to a statement released by pollster and ASU
professor Bruce Merrill. "Most importantly, the undecided vote is now
down to 15 percent. The electorate is highly polarized and there
probably won't be much movement by Republicans and Democrats."
In the most recent poll, 81 percent of McCain's supporters and 86
percent of Obama's supporters said that they feel very strongly about
their choice.
Obama's supporters mostly want change in Washington (28 percent), say
they don't want McCain (8 percent) and say they share Obama's values
and policies (8 percent).
Most of McCain's supporters said they are voting for him because of
his qualifications and experience in government (33 percent), because
they are opposed to Obama (16 percent) and because of McCain's
military experience (8 percent).
Merrill noted that McCain maintains his lead in Arizona mainly because
of the support of evangelicals and conservative Democrats.
"As always, who turns out to vote will determine who wins Arizona," he
stated. "The election in Arizona may be decided by whether young
people and Hispanics turn out to vote and who the independent voters,
who are a growing and important segment of the electorate, decide to
support."
Fifty percent of registered voters said McCain's choice of Alaska Gov.
Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential running mate helps him. Thirty-
four percent said she hurts McCain, and 16 percent didn't have an
opinion. Arizonans were evenly divided on whether Palin could be an
effective president if something happened to McCain; Forty-eight
percent said they were confident in her abilities, and 46 percent were
not very confident.
Regarding Obama's choice of Sen. Joseph Biden as his running mate, 43
percent said the choice helps Obama, 30 percent said it hurts him, and
27 had no opinion. Seventy percent of those interviewed had confidence
in Biden's ability to take over from Obama, while 24 percent were not
very confident.
Meanwhile, a nationwide Gallup daily presidential tracking poll taken
September 25-27 shows Obama leading McCain 50 percent to 42 percent.
In other areas, the Cronkite/Eight poll found that most Arizonans
opposed the proposed congressional bailout of the banks and the
financial industry. Thirty-nine percent were opposed, 31 percent were
supportive, and 30 percent were undecided.
The proposal to change the Arizona Constitution to define marriage as
between one man and one woman was supported by a narrow margin. Forty-
nine percent favored the change, 42 percent were opposed and 9 percent
were undecided.
The proposed employer sanction proposition was strongly supported by
63 percent of the voters, while 19 percent were opposed and 18 said
they were undecided.
The survey has a sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage
points. The sample was 38 percent Republican, 35 percent Democrat and
27 percent independent. Fifty-eight percent of the interviews were
conducted in Maricopa County, 17 percent in Pima County and 25 percent
in Arizona's other counties. Forty-seven percent of the voters
interviewed are men and 53 percent are women.
Poll question wording:
First, we would like to know who you probably will vote for in the
November presidential election. Will you probably vote for Republican
John McCain, Democrat Barack Obama, Libertarian Robert Barr,
Independent Ralph Nader or Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney?
McCain 45%
Obama 38%
Nader 1%
Barr less than
one percent
McKinney less than one
percent
Undecided 15%
ASK ONLY IF VOTING FOR MCCAIN. Why are you voting for John McCain
rather than Barack Obama? (be specific)
% responses Response
33 Has more experience/better qualified to be president
16 Don't want Obama to be president
8 McCain's military experience, stronger in military affairs
8 He's a conservative, position on moral issues, pro-life
7 Always vote Republican
6 Share his values, ideas, policies
4 He's the better candidate, will be a better president
2 Very patriotic, for America
2 Liked choice of Palin
2 Is a strong leader
2 Like his tax policy
1 Maverick
1 Like his position on the economy
1 Like position on gun control
1 Will cut spending
1 Lesser of two evils
5 Other single mentions
(There were 398 mentions)
ASK ONLY IF VOTING FOR MCCAIN: Would you say you feel very strongly
about your support for John McCain or not very strongly?
Very strongly 81%
Not very strongly 17%
Don't know/no opinion 2%
ASK ONLY IF VOING FOR MCCAIN: How much of a factor in your decision to
vote for McCain was his choice of Sara Palin to be his vice-
president?
Was a major factor 16%
Somewhat of a factor or 24
Not really a factor 59
Don't know/no opinion 1
ASKED OF EVERYONE: Do you think John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as
his vice presidential running mate will help or hurt him in terms of
winning this election?
Help 50%
Hurt 34
Don't know/no opinion 16
ASKED OF EVERYONE: If John McCain is elected and something happened to
him in the first few weeks of his presidency, how much confidence
would you have in Sarah Palin that she could take over and be an
effective president? Would you say you are very confident, generally
confident or not very confident Palin would be an effective
president?
Very confident 24%
Generally confident 24
Not very confident 46
Don't know/no opinion 6
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