Wall Street Journal THE REAL WORLD Delivering Dominoes Those who know the Mideast should help democracy along. BY CLAUDIA ROSETT Wednesday, March 19, 2003 12:01 a.m. EST
The first sunrise that brings an Iraq free of Saddam Hussein could, as President Bush has said, mark the dawn of freedom for the Middle East. The hope is that liberty for Iraq will start a domino reaction of democratic change, and, as Mr. Bush stressed again on Monday, set "an example to all the Middle East of a vital and peaceful and self-governing nation." For those who believe nothing is more important in global affairs than taking potshots at Mr. Bush, or preserving the so-called stability of the status quo, this is a vision easy to deride. Certainly there is no shortage of skeptics. They inhabit not only the capitals of Old Europe and the palaces of the Middle East, but the corridors of the State Department. The latest sign of such in-house dissent comes by way of a classified State Department report, leaked last week to the Los Angeles Times under the bleak title "Iraq, the Middle East and Change: No Dominoes." This report, portions of which were read over the phone to the L.A. Times by an anonymous "intelligence official," laid out some of the subtleties surrounding the fear that "liberal democracy would be difficult to achieve," and even if accomplished "could well be subject to exploitation by anti-American elements." In sum, only a simpleton from Texas could imagine a Middle East with freedom for all. Only a dang-fool cowboy could envision Iraq--of all places--as a beacon of hope. We're in luck. We've got us a cowboy in the White House. And distasteful though it may be to many Middle East experts, it's worth stressing that for all their nuanced knowledge of regional characters and culture, there is something Mr. Bush understands that many of them apparently do not. It's called human nature. IF YOU REALLY BELIEVE that all human beings--including those behind the many veils of the Middle East--are created equal, and endowed with a desire for life, liberty and happiness, then you also have to believe that pursuit of enlightened governance in the region is not simply a pet project of the White House. Confined within the tyrannies of such places as Iran and Syria, Lebanon, Libya and Saudi Arabia, are powerful forces for freedom. To understand that basic truth is to take a vital step toward a better, safer world. And yes, of course, all change carries risk, not least to State Department bureaucrats who have invested years in finding a comfortable niche within the status quo. But in this age of germs, gas, nuclear bombs and terrorist bagmen, there is by now no safety in efforts to keep things as they are. It's not as if the Middle East in its current configuration is a place free of anti-American elements--fostered in many cases by despotic governments, such as the Saudi royals, trying to deflect hatred they have so richly earned for themselves. Neither is the Middle East lacking, for that matter, in anti-European or even anti-Middle Eastern elements, if we stop to consider the waste and ruin routinely inflicted on ordinary inhabitants of the region by its current club of tyrants. The critics are entirely right in underscoring that there is no easy road ahead. Democracy is not something that comes in a kit, to be unloaded and assembled overnight. Its success depends not only on a framework of rules, but also on intangible and complex bonds of individual responsibility and trust. There's been a lot of debate in recent years about "nation building," but the truth is that democracies are not exactly something you just build. They entail a set of beliefs different from the habits of doublethink and deception required for survival under tyrants. To have any real hope of working, democracy must in the end come from within. To encourage that evolution needs more than just faith in human yearning. It helps to have a deep understanding of local subtleties. But one must start somewhere. And in pointing the way toward political frontiers never before explored in most of the Middle East, Mr. Bush has once again done something he's got a knack for. He has changed the terms of the debate. And once the Middle East experts recover from the shock of this novel idea--democracy--they might want to consider that their most valuable contribution would be not to list the reasons democracy might not succeed, but to look, with educated eyes, for ways to help it along. IN THE HISTORY of democratic change, the skepticism we are now seeing is nothing new. Author John Dower, in his award-winning book "Embracing Defeat," on the post-World War II transformation of Japan, chronicles the doubts of the experts of that era that Japan could change from a fascist state, complete with suicide attackers, to a self-sustaining democracy. It not only came to pass, but with a peaceful, democratic Japan leading the region in the 1970s and 1980s, other places followed suit. In 1986 the Philippine people chased out Ferdinand Marcos. In short order, South Korea's people got themselves a democratic system, and so did Taiwan--becoming home to the first fully functioning Chinese democracy. In the former Soviet bloc, it went much the same way. With the communist system crumbling, State Department staffers and Slavic experts warned of dire instability ahead and looked for ways to help prop up one of the world's most evil systems. Then, in the face of so many expert opinions, the dominoes began to fall--Eastern Europe broke free. And in December 1991, Russia's President Boris Yeltsin--initially dismissed by the State Department elite as a lout with a lot of unrealistic notions--uncoupled the republics of the Soviet Union and kicked off an era of what has been, all things considered, much progress in many parts of that former empire. No one would argue that Russia is today a perfect democracy. It is in many ways still a big mess, with plenty of evolving left to do. Eastern Europe is still struggling to find its way into the modern world. Even Japan is no ideal democracy. But they are all in far better shape than before their democratic development began, and the rest of the world is much safer for it. Somewhere in the big picture of events now unfolding on the world scene is a possibility that Middle East experts might want to consider. Mr. Bush has laid down a mighty marker, a vision that if realized would mean a better world for all. It will now take subtlety and nuance and knowledge of the terrain to find ways to help realize this vision. Instead of spending their time enumerating reasons why democracy cannot succeed in the Middle East, the experts could better help us all by borrowing a little faith from Mr. Bush in human nature, and lending a little wisdom in how to best help the region they know so well. Ms. Rosett is a columnist for OpinionJournal.com and The Wall Street Journal Europe. Her column appears alternate Wednesdays.
