[AsburyPark] Re: Toll Blames the Media

[dfsavgny]

--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, "oakdorf" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> 
> > 
> > -- if I could read the future I would be at the race track.
> >
> 
> why the track?? 
> 
> All you'd need is a wireless connection
> 
> It would be bikini season 365 days year.
>

I didn't say where that track would be ...




 
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[AsburyPark] Re: Toll Blames the Media

[oakdorf]

> 
> -- if I could read the future I would be at the race track.
>

why the track?? 

All you'd need is a wireless connection

It would be bikini season 365 days year.





 
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[AsburyPark] Re: Toll Blames the Media

[dfsavgny]

--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
>
>  
>  
> In the short run,  the CEO of General Electric Jeffrey Immelt said 
last 
> night on Charlie Rose that he watches CNBC in the morning while on
his  treadmill. 
>  Said he just laughs at the pundits because he  said nobody really
knows; 
> this from the CEO of the first trillion dollar  corporation in history.

As I reply to anyone who ask (including multi-millionaire developer
clients) me what is going to happen in the market

-- if I could read the future I would be at the race track.





 
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Re: [AsburyPark] Re: Toll Blames the Media

[MarioAPNJ]

 
In a message dated 11/9/2007 2:30:13 P.M. Eastern Standard Time,  
[EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:

"In  the long run we are all dead." 


Yikes!
 
In the short run,  the CEO of General Electric Jeffrey Immelt said  last 
night on Charlie Rose that he watches CNBC in the morning while on his  
treadmill. 
 Said he just laughs at the pundits because he  said nobody really knows; 
this from the CEO of the first trillion dollar  corporation in history.
 
 
 



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[AsburyPark] Re: Toll Blames the Media

[dfsavgny]

--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
>
>  
> Then there's this old chestnut:
>  
> “Isn't it strange? The same people who laugh  at fortune tellers take 
> economists seriously.”
>  
> That old astrology taunt was used on West  Wing:  "The President's
going to 
> look at the W.B.O. revenue analysis and  say that economists were
put on this 
> planet to make astrologers look good."  --- 
>  

Or my favorite, the response by John Maynard Keynes to other
economists who worried about the effects of deficit spending (Keynes'
spending to prime the pump to get out of the Depression) in the "long run"

"In the long run we are all dead." 





 
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Re: [AsburyPark] Re: Toll Blames the Media

[MarioAPNJ]

 
Then there's this old chestnut:
 
“Isn't it strange? The same people who laugh  at fortune tellers take 
economists seriously.”
 
That old astrology taunt was used on West  Wing:  "The President's going to 
look at the W.B.O. revenue analysis and  say that economists were put on this 
planet to make astrologers look good."  --- 
 
 
In a message dated 11/9/2007 2:17:43 P.M. Eastern Standard Time,  
[EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:

The  market is the same way - the best mathematicians/The  market is th

>From an old article:F

They pointed out that if  countless traders are competing to buy and 
sell stocks at what they think,  based on rational considerations, are 
their proper values, then the market  will always instantaneously 
adjust the price of each stock to what it's  worth. Moreover, any 
information relevant to the real value of the  stock--news, or insider 
information, or anything else--will also be  instantaneously absorbed 
into the price. When the market moves in response  to any news, so the 
theory goes, it will move so quickly that no one will  be able to make 
money reliably.

To Lo, the EMH has a "Zen-like",  beauty. "What it says is that the 
more people who try to forecast markets,  the less forecastable 
markets tend to be," he explains. "If there is any  kind of fore-
castability in prices, somebody is going to take advantage of  it, so 
if there are enough people competing with each other to try to take  
advantage of small forecastabilities, then all of those  
forecastabilities will be dissipated."







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[AsburyPark] Re: Toll Blames the Media

[dfsavgny]

--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, "oakdorf" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> Moreover, any 
> information relevant to the real value of the stock--news, or insider 
> information, or anything else--will also be instantaneously absorbed 
> into the price. When the market moves in response to any news, so the 
> theory goes, it will move so quickly that no one will be able to make 
> money reliably.

Focusing on equities, well there's the rub. Is the info "generally"
available.




 
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[AsburyPark] Re: Toll Blames the Media

[oakdorf]

--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, "oakdorf" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, "Mario"  wrote:
> >
> > In a message dated 11/9/2007 11:09:32 A.M. Eastern Standard Time,
> > dfsavgny@ writes:
> > All kidding aside, much of the market is psychological.
> 
> 
> So is blackjack. 
> 

We can clear a table when we say we play "no rule" blackjack.

The market is the same way - the best mathematicians/programmers win.

>From an old article:.

They pointed out that if countless traders are competing to buy and 
sell stocks at what they think, based on rational considerations, are 
their proper values, then the market will always instantaneously 
adjust the price of each stock to what it's worth. Moreover, any 
information relevant to the real value of the stock--news, or insider 
information, or anything else--will also be instantaneously absorbed 
into the price. When the market moves in response to any news, so the 
theory goes, it will move so quickly that no one will be able to make 
money reliably.

To Lo, the EMH has a "Zen-like", beauty. "What it says is that the 
more people who try to forecast markets, the less forecastable 
markets tend to be," he explains. "If there is any kind of fore-
castability in prices, somebody is going to take advantage of it, so 
if there are enough people competing with each other to try to take 
advantage of small forecastabilities, then all of those 
forecastabilities will be dissipated."





 
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[AsburyPark] Re: Toll Blames the Media

[oakdorf]

--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, "Mario" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> In a message dated 11/9/2007 11:09:32 A.M. Eastern Standard Time,
> [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
> All kidding aside, much of the market is psychological.


So is blackjack. 

I love it when people say "you're not palying by the book...the book 
says..."

I can outlast most of the "rule players"

Like I told the guy - where's the person live that wrote the book on 
how to play and win at blackjack? Same for financial planners. 

Who lives where? Singers, ball plyasers and tv stars. 

And traders.





 
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[AsburyPark] Re: Toll Blames the Media

[Mario]

In a message dated 11/9/2007 11:09:32 A.M. Eastern Standard Time,
[EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
All kidding aside, much of the market is psychological.

from  Online NewsHour: Analysis | Economy Continues Downward Trend |
November 8, 2007 | PBS


This is a market dominated by traders, professional traders, people who
buy and sell every minute. They're hyperactive. They go home, and
they've closed out their accounts, and they've bought and sold billions
of dollars a day and stuff. It is not a market for individual long-term
investors.

And the thing about a trading market is that there is no reality other
than the reality of the market itself. The trader doesn't really care
what's going on in the real economy. All the trader cares about is what
the other traders are going to think next.

And so if you think the other traders think that the price of something
is going to go up, then you buy it now and then sell it to them in a few
minutes, or the reverse and the other.

So the reality of this market is a trading market, and it's not one for
individual investors to try to play in, because you're likely to get
hurt. It's best to stay to the side. If you've made some money, you
might want to take some of that money off the table, but you don't have
to take it off, but don't start to try to game the market, because you
will fail.