Re: [FRIAM] FW: National Science Foundation Update Daily Digest Bulletin

2008-02-16 Thread Robert Holmes 
Nick,

Doesn't sound too tricky - as you describe it, it seems a pretty good
candidate for some form of Bayesian analysis: p(A|B) is proportional to
p(B|A)p(A), where B="is described as a pansy" and A="is actually a pansy"

You can probably get good empirical values for your priors ("what IS the
probability of finding a pansy round here?"), which is a pleasant change for
Bayesians as they usually guess these values and then spend time trying to
convince you that the final result isn't sensitive to the priors anyway.
Also I'd expect that you can probably get reasonable values for
those conditional probabilities, in consultation with your local flower
expert.

Robert

On 2/15/08, Nicholas Thompson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> All --
>
> Has anybody thought about how to make use of truly lousy data?  There are
> increasingly sources of public data on subject matters such as weather and
> (see below) flowers and birds where the quality of the data is truly awful
> by ordinary standards and yet there is so much of it that it seems a crime
> not to try to make use of it.  So Sally writes in to say that her morning
> glories are in bloom in April when what she means is her pansies.  Her
> neighbor gets the pansies right but screws up on the tithonia.  Is there
> any way to add this all up and get something?
>
> thoughts?
>
> nick
>
>
>
>
>
> Nicholas S. Thompson
> Research Associate, Redfish Group, Santa Fe, NM ([EMAIL PROTECTED])
> Professor of Psychology and Ethology, Clark University
> ([EMAIL PROTECTED])
>
>

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Re: [FRIAM] FW: National Science Foundation Update Daily Digest Bulletin

2008-02-15 Thread peter 

Sure Nick

We need to move into the visual world.  The same issue you mention is a 
huge problem in all forms of engineering / architecture as well let 
alone plants. The data is lousy period when it goes through immutable 
text variations but at least with the tactile we should be facing in the 
same direction more fun here  http://www.ideapete.com/gwendolyn.htm


Add the famous we only see 2D and its ripe for disaster

To err is human to really screw up you need text and a computer

( : ( : pete

Peter Baston

*IDEAS*

/www.ideapete.com/ 








Nicholas Thompson wrote:

All --

Has anybody thought about how to make use of truly lousy data?  There are 
increasingly sources of public data on subject matters such as weather and

(see below) flowers and birds where the quality of the data is truly awful
by ordinary standards and yet there is so much of it that it seems a crime
not to try to make use of it.  So Sally writes in to say that her morning
glories are in bloom in April when what she means is her pansies.  Her
neighbor gets the pansies right but screws up on the tithonia.  Is there
any way to add this all up and get something?  


thoughts?

nick





Nicholas S. Thompson
Research Associate, Redfish Group, Santa Fe, NM ([EMAIL PROTECTED])
Professor of Psychology and Ethology, Clark University
([EMAIL PROTECTED])




- Original Message - 
From: National Science Foundation Update 
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: 2/15/2008 2:27:26 AM 
Subject: National Science Foundation Update Daily Digest Bulletin



You have requested to receive a Daily Digest e-mail from National Science
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Message: 1
From: National Science Foundation Update <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2008 10:35:16 -0600 (CST)
Subject: Volunteers Across Nation to Track Climate Clues in Spring Flowers

Volunteers Across Nation to Track Climate Clues in Spring Flowers 
 
A nationwide initiative starting this week will enable volunteers to track

climate change by observing the timing of flowers and foliage. Project
BudBurst, operated by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
(UCAR) and a team of partners, allows students, gardeners and other citizen
scientists in every state to enter their observations into an online
database that will give researchers a detailed picture of our warming
climate. 
The project, which will be launched tomorrow, ... 


More at
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=17&govDel=USNSF_51 

This is an NSF News item. 




Message: 2
From: National Science Foundation Update <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2008 14:58:55 -0600 (CST)
Subject: Scientists Reveal First-Ever Global Map of Total Human Effect on
Oceans

Scientists Reveal First-Ever Global Map of Total Human Effect on Oceans 
 
More than 40 percent of the world's oceans are heavily affected by human

activities, and few if any areas remain untouched, according to the first
global-scale study of human influence on marine ecosystems. 
By overlaying maps of 17 different activities such as fishing, climate

change and pollution, the researchers have produced a composite map of the
toll that humans have exacted on the seas. 
The work, published in this week's issue of Science, was conducted at the
... 


More at
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Message: 3
From: National Science Foundation Update <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2008 15:49:19 -0600 (CST)
Subject: A Newly Discovered Solar System Contains Scaled-Down Versions of
Saturn and Jupiter

A Newly Discovered Solar System Contains Scaled-Down Versions of Saturn and
Jupiter 
 
A team of international astronomers reports in the Feb. 15 issue of Science

the discovery of a solar system nearly 5,000 light years away containing
scaled-down versions of Jupiter and Saturn. Their findings suggest that our
galaxy could conceivably contain many star systems similar to our own. The
National Science Foundation (NSF) sponsored the research. 
"NSF is delighted to have played a role in enabling such an exciting
discovery," said Michael Briley, a ... 


More at
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=111093&govDel=USNSF_51 

This is an NSF News item. 




Message: 4
From: National Science Foundation Update <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2008 15:57:50 -0600 (CST)
Subject: Nanotechnology Undergraduate Education (NUE) in Engineering

Nanotechnology Undergraduate Education (NUE) in Engineering 
Available Formats: 
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Re: [FRIAM] FW: National Science Foundation Update Daily Digest Bulletin

2008-02-15 Thread Nicholas Thompson 
Doug, 

I am too dumb to know the degree to which I am being kidded here.  Please 
explain.. 

Nick 


- Original Message - 
From: Douglas Roberts 
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED];The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Sent: 2/15/2008 8:41:18 AM 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] FW: National Science Foundation Update Daily Digest 
Bulletin


Run that lousy data through a simulation, and then publish the results as truth.

Works every time!

--Doug

-- 
Doug Roberts, RTI International
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell


On Fri, Feb 15, 2008 at 8:16 AM, Nicholas Thompson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

All --

Has anybody thought about how to make use of truly lousy data?  There are
increasingly sources of public data on subject matters such as weather and
(see below) flowers and birds where the quality of the data is truly awful
by ordinary standards and yet there is so much of it that it seems a crime
not to try to make use of it.  So Sally writes in to say that her morning
glories are in bloom in April when what she means is her pansies.  Her
neighbor gets the pansies right but screws up on the tithonia.  Is there
any way to add this all up and get something?

thoughts?

nick





Nicholas S. Thompson
Research Associate, Redfish Group, Santa Fe, NM ([EMAIL PROTECTED])
Professor of Psychology and Ethology, Clark University
([EMAIL PROTECTED])




- Original Message -
From: National Science Foundation Update
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: 2/15/2008 2:27:26 AM
Subject: National Science Foundation Update Daily Digest Bulletin


You have requested to receive a Daily Digest e-mail from National Science
Foundation Update.
Message: 1
From: National Science Foundation Update <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2008 10:35:16 -0600 (CST)
Subject: Volunteers Across Nation to Track Climate Clues in Spring Flowers

Volunteers Across Nation to Track Climate Clues in Spring Flowers

A nationwide initiative starting this week will enable volunteers to track
climate change by observing the timing of flowers and foliage. Project
BudBurst, operated by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
(UCAR) and a team of partners, allows students, gardeners and other citizen
scientists in every state to enter their observations into an online
database that will give researchers a detailed picture of our warming
climate.
The project, which will be launched tomorrow, ...

More at
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=17&govDel=USNSF_51

This is an NSF News item.



Message: 2
From: National Science Foundation Update <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2008 14:58:55 -0600 (CST)
Subject: Scientists Reveal First-Ever Global Map of Total Human Effect on
Oceans

Scientists Reveal First-Ever Global Map of Total Human Effect on Oceans

More than 40 percent of the world's oceans are heavily affected by human
activities, and few if any areas remain untouched, according to the first
global-scale study of human influence on marine ecosystems.
By overlaying maps of 17 different activities such as fishing, climate
change and pollution, the researchers have produced a composite map of the
toll that humans have exacted on the seas.
The work, published in this week's issue of Science, was conducted at the
...

More at
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=13&govDel=USNSF_51

This is an NSF News item.



Message: 3
From: National Science Foundation Update <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2008 15:49:19 -0600 (CST)
Subject: A Newly Discovered Solar System Contains Scaled-Down Versions of
Saturn and Jupiter

A Newly Discovered Solar System Contains Scaled-Down Versions of Saturn and
Jupiter

A team of international astronomers reports in the Feb. 15 issue of Science
the discovery of a solar system nearly 5,000 light years away containing
scaled-down versions of Jupiter and Saturn. Their findings suggest that our
galaxy could conceivably contain many star systems similar to our own. The
National Science Foundation (NSF) sponsored the research.
"NSF is delighted to have played a role in enabling such an exciting
discovery," said Michael Briley, a ...

More at
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=111093&govDel=USNSF_51

This is an NSF News item.



Message: 4
From: National Science Foundation Update <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2008 15:57:50 -0600 (CST)
Subject: Nanotechnology Undergraduate Education (NUE) in Engineering

Nanotechnology Undergraduate Education (NUE) in Engineering
Available Formats:
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Re: [FRIAM] FW: National Science Foundation Update Daily Digest Bulletin

2008-02-15 Thread Douglas Roberts 
Run that lousy data through a simulation, and then publish the results as
truth.

Works every time!

--Doug

-- 
Doug Roberts, RTI International
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell

On Fri, Feb 15, 2008 at 8:16 AM, Nicholas Thompson <
[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

> All --
>
> Has anybody thought about how to make use of truly lousy data?  There are
> increasingly sources of public data on subject matters such as weather and
> (see below) flowers and birds where the quality of the data is truly awful
> by ordinary standards and yet there is so much of it that it seems a crime
> not to try to make use of it.  So Sally writes in to say that her morning
> glories are in bloom in April when what she means is her pansies.  Her
> neighbor gets the pansies right but screws up on the tithonia.  Is there
> any way to add this all up and get something?
>
> thoughts?
>
> nick
>
>
>
>
>
> Nicholas S. Thompson
> Research Associate, Redfish Group, Santa Fe, NM ([EMAIL PROTECTED])
> Professor of Psychology and Ethology, Clark University
> ([EMAIL PROTECTED])
>
>
>
>
> - Original Message -
> From: National Science Foundation Update
> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Sent: 2/15/2008 2:27:26 AM
> Subject: National Science Foundation Update Daily Digest Bulletin
>
>
> You have requested to receive a Daily Digest e-mail from National Science
> Foundation Update.
> Message: 1
> From: National Science Foundation Update <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2008 10:35:16 -0600 (CST)
> Subject: Volunteers Across Nation to Track Climate Clues in Spring Flowers
>
> Volunteers Across Nation to Track Climate Clues in Spring Flowers
>
> A nationwide initiative starting this week will enable volunteers to track
> climate change by observing the timing of flowers and foliage. Project
> BudBurst, operated by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
> (UCAR) and a team of partners, allows students, gardeners and other
> citizen
> scientists in every state to enter their observations into an online
> database that will give researchers a detailed picture of our warming
> climate.
> The project, which will be launched tomorrow, ...
>
> More at
> http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=17&govDel=USNSF_51
>
> This is an NSF News item.
>
>
>
> Message: 2
> From: National Science Foundation Update <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2008 14:58:55 -0600 (CST)
> Subject: Scientists Reveal First-Ever Global Map of Total Human Effect on
> Oceans
>
> Scientists Reveal First-Ever Global Map of Total Human Effect on Oceans
>
> More than 40 percent of the world's oceans are heavily affected by human
> activities, and few if any areas remain untouched, according to the first
> global-scale study of human influence on marine ecosystems.
> By overlaying maps of 17 different activities such as fishing, climate
> change and pollution, the researchers have produced a composite map of the
> toll that humans have exacted on the seas.
> The work, published in this week's issue of Science, was conducted at the
> ...
>
> More at
> http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=13&govDel=USNSF_51
>
> This is an NSF News item.
>
>
>
> Message: 3
> From: National Science Foundation Update <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2008 15:49:19 -0600 (CST)
> Subject: A Newly Discovered Solar System Contains Scaled-Down Versions of
> Saturn and Jupiter
>
> A Newly Discovered Solar System Contains Scaled-Down Versions of Saturn
> and
> Jupiter
>
> A team of international astronomers reports in the Feb. 15 issue of
> Science
> the discovery of a solar system nearly 5,000 light years away containing
> scaled-down versions of Jupiter and Saturn. Their findings suggest that
> our
> galaxy could conceivably contain many star systems similar to our own. The
> National Science Foundation (NSF) sponsored the research.
> "NSF is delighted to have played a role in enabling such an exciting
> discovery," said Michael Briley, a ...
>
> More at
> http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=111093&govDel=USNSF_51
>
> This is an NSF News item.
>
>
>
> Message: 4
> From: National Science Foundation Update <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2008 15:57:50 -0600 (CST)
> Subject: Nanotechnology Undergraduate Education (NUE) in Engineering
>
> Nanotechnology Undergraduate Education (NUE) in Engineering
> Available Formats:
> HTML: http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2008/nsf08544/nsf08544.htm?govDel=USNSF_25
> TXT: http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2008/nsf08544/nsf08544.txt?govDel=USNSF_25
> PDF: http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2008/nsf08544/nsf08544.pdf?govDel=USNSF_25
>
> Document Number: nsf08544
>
>
> This is an NSF Program Announcements and Information item.
>
>
>
> This e-mail update was generated automatically based on your subscription
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> than one category, resulting in duplicate notices.
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[FRIAM] FW: National Science Foundation Update Daily Digest Bulletin

2008-02-15 Thread Nicholas Thompson 
All --

Has anybody thought about how to make use of truly lousy data?  There are 
increasingly sources of public data on subject matters such as weather and
(see below) flowers and birds where the quality of the data is truly awful
by ordinary standards and yet there is so much of it that it seems a crime
not to try to make use of it.  So Sally writes in to say that her morning
glories are in bloom in April when what she means is her pansies.  Her
neighbor gets the pansies right but screws up on the tithonia.  Is there
any way to add this all up and get something?  

thoughts?

nick





Nicholas S. Thompson
Research Associate, Redfish Group, Santa Fe, NM ([EMAIL PROTECTED])
Professor of Psychology and Ethology, Clark University
([EMAIL PROTECTED])




- Original Message - 
From: National Science Foundation Update 
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: 2/15/2008 2:27:26 AM 
Subject: National Science Foundation Update Daily Digest Bulletin


You have requested to receive a Daily Digest e-mail from National Science
Foundation Update.
Message: 1
From: National Science Foundation Update <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2008 10:35:16 -0600 (CST)
Subject: Volunteers Across Nation to Track Climate Clues in Spring Flowers

Volunteers Across Nation to Track Climate Clues in Spring Flowers 
 
A nationwide initiative starting this week will enable volunteers to track
climate change by observing the timing of flowers and foliage. Project
BudBurst, operated by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
(UCAR) and a team of partners, allows students, gardeners and other citizen
scientists in every state to enter their observations into an online
database that will give researchers a detailed picture of our warming
climate. 
The project, which will be launched tomorrow, ... 

More at
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=17&govDel=USNSF_51 

This is an NSF News item. 



Message: 2
From: National Science Foundation Update <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2008 14:58:55 -0600 (CST)
Subject: Scientists Reveal First-Ever Global Map of Total Human Effect on
Oceans

Scientists Reveal First-Ever Global Map of Total Human Effect on Oceans 
 
More than 40 percent of the world's oceans are heavily affected by human
activities, and few if any areas remain untouched, according to the first
global-scale study of human influence on marine ecosystems. 
By overlaying maps of 17 different activities such as fishing, climate
change and pollution, the researchers have produced a composite map of the
toll that humans have exacted on the seas. 
The work, published in this week's issue of Science, was conducted at the
... 

More at
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=13&govDel=USNSF_51 

This is an NSF News item. 



Message: 3
From: National Science Foundation Update <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2008 15:49:19 -0600 (CST)
Subject: A Newly Discovered Solar System Contains Scaled-Down Versions of
Saturn and Jupiter

A Newly Discovered Solar System Contains Scaled-Down Versions of Saturn and
Jupiter 
 
A team of international astronomers reports in the Feb. 15 issue of Science
the discovery of a solar system nearly 5,000 light years away containing
scaled-down versions of Jupiter and Saturn. Their findings suggest that our
galaxy could conceivably contain many star systems similar to our own. The
National Science Foundation (NSF) sponsored the research. 
"NSF is delighted to have played a role in enabling such an exciting
discovery," said Michael Briley, a ... 

More at
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=111093&govDel=USNSF_51 

This is an NSF News item. 



Message: 4
From: National Science Foundation Update <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2008 15:57:50 -0600 (CST)
Subject: Nanotechnology Undergraduate Education (NUE) in Engineering

Nanotechnology Undergraduate Education (NUE) in Engineering 
Available Formats: 
HTML: http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2008/nsf08544/nsf08544.htm?govDel=USNSF_25 
TXT: http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2008/nsf08544/nsf08544.txt?govDel=USNSF_25 
PDF: http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2008/nsf08544/nsf08544.pdf?govDel=USNSF_25 

Document Number: nsf08544 


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