Re: What about (blush) gas
- Original Message - From: Mike Hollinshead <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >According to Marchetti (see IIASA references) global consumption of natural >gas as a proportion of total consumption will peak in 2017, when a new >source will take over. I don't put much faith in IIASA generally, and Marchetti in particular. I have an IIASA/Marchetti paper that claims the carrying capacity of earth is one trillion people! Clearly these people aren't too concerned with reality. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/cgi-bin/pubsrch?RR78007 What new energy source does Marchetti see taking over from fossil fuel? Pixie dust? Why hasn't David Pimentel heard of it? Like Yogi Berra, I feel dejav vu all over again: "What about the energy needed for the super-industrial society? Scientists and engineers are generally agreed that a sufficient research and development effort will make available before the year 2000 several new technologies that can provide the world with nearly unlimited and economical quantities of clean energy from renewable or inexhaustible resources. The technologically advanced nations could obtain most of their energy requirements from these sources by the year 2025. Some of these sources would also be feasible for many developing nations. Furthermore, conventional and currently unconventional fossil fuels will last for centuries. Thus, if the appropriate decisions are made, our grandchildren will not be plauged by an energy crisis. In addition, if we relieve the pressure on the traditional fuel supplies by shifting rapidly to the advanced technologies, then more 'natural' oil and gas would be available to less developed nations." [p 243, WORLD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, by Herman Kahn & Hudson Institute; Westview, 1979] IIASA/Marchetti seem to be the intellectual and ethical descendents of Hudson/Kahn. Where are their net energy calculations? I just don't believe these guys. Jay -- www.dieoff.com
Re: What about (blush) gas
Odell is a geographer. It was because he was unencumbered by the assumptions of economists that he was able to forecast both the spiking and the collapsing of oil prices. According to Marchetti (see IIASA references) global consumption of natural gas as a proportion of total consumption will peak in 2017, when a new source will take over. Mike H
Re: What about (blush) gas
- Original Message - From: Tom Lowe <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >Global gas reserves are so great that it will be the fuel of the next >century, replacing coal and oil as the main source of power, the conference >heard. > >Peter Odell, professor emeritus of international energy studies at Erasmus >university, Rotterdam, said the belief that fossil fuels would run out or >be replaced by renewable energy was wrong. I am going to find out for sure who Odell is, but based upon his publications, I think he is an economist. In other words, he probably assumes that energy is a function of price -- which anyone with a brain realizes is wrong. According to Campbell -- a geologist -- global natural gas production is expected to "peak" a few years either side of 2020. [ p. 119, THE COMING OIL CRISIS, by C. J. Campbell; Multi-Science Publishing Company & Petroconsultants, 1997. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0906522110 ] Bernabé -- major oil company CEO -- is more pessimistic and sees the peak in global natural gas production about ten years earlier: 2010 http://www.forbes.com/forbes/98/0615/6112084a.htm For the gas in the US, see Riva : http://hubbert.mines.edu/news/v97n3/mkh-new4.html The fact that economists are unanimously and consistently wrong doesn't make them right. I explain in great detail -- with examples -- why economists-as-agroup are wrong about energy in my latest newsletter: "The Foulest of Them All" at http://dieoff.com/page168.htm Jay -- www.dieoff.com
What about (blush) gas
Rouse yourself, Jay, and give us your take on the following article: >From The Guardian GAS 'TO POWER THE GLOBE' Paul Brown reports from the geographers' conference Friday January 8, 1999 Global gas reserves are so great that it will be the fuel of the next century, replacing coal and oil as the main source of power, the conference heard. Peter Odell, professor emeritus of international energy studies at Erasmus university, Rotterdam, said the belief that fossil fuels would run out or be replaced by renewable energy was wrong. In a paper for the International Atomic Energy Agency, which saw no hope of a nuclear power revival for 50 years, he said reserves of gas had been underestimated. Worldwide consumption of gas is 1 billion tonnes a year. There are already proven reserves of 140 billion tonnes, with 200 to 300 billion tonnes still to be discovered. Gas supply will expand until 2090, when output will be 5.5 times current levels. Although UK reserves will run out, said Mr Odell, elsewhere gas is only just being exploited. Pipelines from Norway, Russia and North Africa could supply Europe. Within a few years gas will overtake coal as a major energy supplier, and overhaul oil by 2020. Oil would be left in the ground like coal is now. He rejected the argument that fears of global warming would make much difference to his estimates. Although renewable energies would become more important, the big users - the USA, China, Russia, India and Brazil - were expected to increase demand for fossil fuels. "Small countries like Denmark and the UK have made substantial cuts to try and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. But in one day China creates as much carbon dioxide as dear little Denmark saves in a year," he said.[end] _ Tom LoweJudge a moth Jackson, Mississippi by the beauty of its candle [EMAIL PROTECTED] -Rumi [EMAIL PROTECTED]
