Re: IPV4 as a Commodity for Profit

2008-02-22 Thread Stephen Sprunk


Thus spake "Tom Vest" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>

I agree, to a point.  My prediction is that when the handful of
mega-ISPs are unable to get the massive quantities of IPv4  addresses
they need (a few dozen account for 90% of all
consumption in the ARIN region)...


I keep reading assertions like this. Is there any public,  authoritative
evidence to support this claim?


Rechecking my own post to PPML, 73 Xtra Large orgs held 79.28% of ARIN's 
address space as of May 07; my apology for a faulty memory, but it's not off 
by enough to invalidate the point.


The statistics came from ARIN Member Services in response to an email
inquiry.  I don't believe they publish such things anywhere (other than 
what's in WHOIS), but you can verify yourself if you wish; they were quite 
willing to

give me any stats I asked for if they had the necessary data available.


If there is, is this 90% figure a new development, or rather the  product
of changes in ownership (e.g., MCI-VZ-UU, SBC-ATT, etc.),  changes in
behavior (a run on the bank), some combination of the two,  or something
else altogether?


Most of the orgs in the Xtra Large class were already there before the
mega-mergers started; after all, you only need >/14 to be Xtra Large.  Given
how most tend to operate in silos, they might still be separate orgs as far
as ARIN is concerned...

S

Stephen Sprunk "God does not play dice."  --Albert Einstein
CCIE #3723 "God is an inveterate gambler, and He throws the
K5SSSdice at every possible opportunity." --Stephen Hawking 



Re: IPV4 as a Commodity for Profit

2008-02-22 Thread Tom Vest


Hi Iljitsch,

Thanks for your response.

On Feb 23, 2008, at 1:38 AM, Iljitsch van Beijnum wrote:


On 22 feb 2008, at 16:41, Tom Vest wrote:

You can download files with all the delegation info from  
ftp.arin.net.


You mean the stats files, which provide delegation date, type,  
starting number, length, etc.?


Yes.

Which one of the published fields is the key field that enables  
you to identify the common recipient(s) of successive delegations  
over time?


There is no such field.


I didn't think so. So there is no accurate way to get anything like a  
sum of IP address per LIR at any point in time, now or in the the  
past, at least not using publicly available data. Given that  
impossibility, I still don't see how anyone can make the  
(increasingly oft repeated) claim that 90% (or any specific share) of  
address space is now going to some subset of the LIRs... no?


No, simply because large ISPs need lots of addresses, everyone  
else can make do with just a few.


But in the absence of some other metric for largeness, that sounds  
like a tautology. Large ISPs are the ones that demand lots of  
addresses... ergo to demand a lot of addresses is to be large...


You've got a point there. However, I think many of us will be able  
to judge ISP size from other factors and observe that the  
correlation by the such determined ISP size and address use is  
quite high.


I agree that many of us can estimate ISP size even more accurately,  
by looking at the sum of address space originated by well-known ASes  
associated with those ISPs. I think many of us will recognize that  
there may be other, less well-known ASes associated with some of  
these, and so an accounting of the well-known ones is incomplete,  
perhaps a lower bound. I agree that some of us can correlate the  
contents of the routing table over time with the entries in the  
delegated files, to get very loose inter-temporal (delegation- 
origination) associations, which have been shaped over time in opaque  
ways by M&A, multihoming, customer management and traffic engineering  
engineering practices, etc. However, I still haven't seen anything  
that enables one to penetrate this fog of largely unknowable  
commercial and operational details sufficiently to justify the 90%  
claim -- or any other claim.


If there is some known method for doing this, and hence some  
defensible way to derive the actual (maybe 90%?) ratio, then I'd  
still be very interested to hear about it! I think all of the  
academics who spent several years trying (with mixed results) to come  
up with algorithms for inferring inter-AS relationships, etc. would  
be very interested too!


Thanks,

TV

 


Re: IPV4 as a Commodity for Profit

2008-02-22 Thread Iljitsch van Beijnum


On 22 feb 2008, at 16:41, Tom Vest wrote:

You can download files with all the delegation info from  
ftp.arin.net.


You mean the stats files, which provide delegation date, type,  
starting number, length, etc.?


Yes.

Which one of the published fields is the key field that enables you  
to identify the common recipient(s) of successive delegations over  
time?


There is no such field.

No, simply because large ISPs need lots of addresses, everyone else  
can make do with just a few.


But in the absence of some other metric for largeness, that sounds  
like a tautology. Large ISPs are the ones that demand lots of  
addresses... ergo to demand a lot of addresses is to be large...


You've got a point there. However, I think many of us will be able to  
judge ISP size from other factors and observe that the correlation by  
the such determined ISP size and address use is quite high.


To turn things around: does anyone know about a significant amount of  
address space (say, a block of a million or so or more) going to an  
entity that isn't an ISP of some sort in the past 5 years?


Re: IPV4 as a Commodity for Profit

2008-02-22 Thread Roland Perry


In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, 
Tony Finch <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes

I would not be surprised to learn that "consumption in the ARIN region"
includes all the legacy assignments.


Many legacy assignments are now administered by the other RIRs
http://www.iana.org/assignments/ipv4-address-space


I should have said: "...includes all the legacy assignments in the ARIN 
region".

--
Roland Perry


Re: IPV4 as a Commodity for Profit

2008-02-22 Thread Tony Finch

On Fri, 22 Feb 2008, Roland Perry wrote:
>
> I would not be surprised to learn that "consumption in the ARIN region"
> includes all the legacy assignments.

Many legacy assignments are now administered by the other RIRs
http://www.iana.org/assignments/ipv4-address-space

Tony.
-- 
f.a.n.finch  <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>  http://dotat.at/
WIGHT PORTLAND PLYMOUTH: SOUTHWEST 5 OR 6, OCCASIONALLY 7 IN WIGHT, DECREASING
4 AT TIMES. MODERATE OR ROUGH. OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE. MODERATE OR GOOD,
OCCASIONALLY POOR.


Re: IPV4 as a Commodity for Profit

2008-02-22 Thread Tom Vest



On Feb 22, 2008, at 7:54 PM, Iljitsch van Beijnum wrote:


On 22 feb 2008, at 0:55, Tom Vest wrote:

I agree, to a point.  My prediction is that when the handful of  
mega-ISPs are unable to get the massive quantities of IPv4  
addresses they need (a few dozen account for 90% of all  
consumption in the ARIN region)...


I keep reading assertions like this. Is there any public,  
authoritative evidence to support this claim?


You can download files with all the delegation info from ftp.arin.net.


You mean the stats files, which provide delegation date, type,  
starting number, length, etc.?
Which one of the published fields is the key field that enables you  
to identify the common recipient(s) of successive delegations over time?
I'm assuming that the quoted 90% figure is some kind of aggregate  
(anything else would be pretty arbitrary), but I don't see anything  
in the public record that suggests how that aggregate might be  
produced...?


If there is, is this 90% figure a new development, or rather the  
product of changes in ownership (e.g., MCI-VZ-UU, SBC-ATT, etc.),  
changes in behavior (a run on the bank), some combination of the  
two, or something else altogether?


No, simply because large ISPs need lots of addresses, everyone else  
can make do with just a few.


But in the absence of some other metric for largeness, that sounds  
like a tautology. Large ISPs are the ones that demand lots of  
addresses... ergo to demand a lot of addresses is to be large...


My question is not an entirely uninformed one. I'm quite familiar  
with the public stats. I just don't see how they transparently  
support this claim.


Clarification would be greatly appreciated,

TV


On 22 feb 2008, at 10:24, Roland Perry wrote:

I would not be surprised to learn that "consumption in the ARIN  
region" includes all the legacy assignments.


By definition, no new legacy assignments are given out.  :-)

So simply looking at recent data will correct for this.

So the quoted metric may well be true, but as unhelpful as  
claiming that "MIT has more address space than the whole of  
China" (as some people do from time to time).


Which is complete nonsense. MIT has 18/8, which is a little under  
17 million addresses. I'm assuming that whatever else on top of  
that they have doesn't amount to a significant number. China is  
eating up IPv4 address space like it's going out of style (hm...)  
and they're now the third largest holder with 140 million IPv4  
addresses, a hair shy of Japan's 142 million and 1/10th of the US's  
1411 million.


On 22 feb 2008, at 10:31, Randy Bush wrote:

dear arin hostfolk.  could we please have the histogram for the  
last few years where the Y axis is the amount of allocation and  
the X axis is the number of organizations with that total size of  
new allocations during the period?  you'll have to bucket alloc  
size in some useful way, probably a /16 or shorter or something.


I can't see organizations in ARIN's delegation records, but simply  
counting delegations and rounding sizes to the closest power of 2  
results this for 20070101 - now:


+--+-++
| size | delegations | Maddrs |
+--+-++
|   10 |   2 |   6.82 |
|   11 |   5 |  11.27 |
|   12 |   6 |   6.14 |
|   13 |   6 |   2.96 |
|   14 |   5 |   1.14 |
|   15 |  12 |   1.58 |
|   16 |  24 |   1.53 |
|   17 |  27 |   0.87 |
|   18 |  51 |   0.82 |
|   19 | 110 |   0.90 |
|   20 | 474 |   1.94 |
|   21 | 227 |   0.46 |
|   22 | 415 |   0.42 |
|   23 |   1 |   0.00 |
|   24 |  11 |   0.00 |
+--+-++

Totals:

+-++
| delegations | Maddrs |
+-++
|1376 |  36.86 |
+-++

I.e., /18 or shorter is 134 delegations (10%) and 33.08 million  
addresses (90%).


However, ARIN has the unfortunate practice of backdating  
delegations when people come back for more address space and the  
new and old blocks can form a bigger block. Below the same numbers  
but with logic that tries to correct for this, which makes it  
impossible to easily show the correct numbers of delegations and  
addresses in one table:


+--+-+
| size | delegations |
+--+-+
|8 |   1 |
|   10 |   4 |
|   11 |  13 |
|   12 |  12 |
|   13 |  12 |
|   14 |  17 |
|   15 |  35 |
|   16 |  38 |
|   17 |  61 |
|   18 |  95 |
|   19 | 222 |
|   20 | 440 |
|   21 | 231 |
|   22 | 425 |
|   23 |   5 |
|   24 |  13 |
+--+-+

+--++
| size | Maddrs |
+--++
|8 |   3.15 |
|   10 |   7.34 |
|   11 |  16.58 |
|   12 |   8.37 |
|   13 |   2.74 |
|   14 |   1.39 |
|   15 |   3.31 |
|   16 |   0.14 |
|   17 |   1.12 |
|   18 |   0.

Re: IPV4 as a Commodity for Profit

2008-02-22 Thread Iljitsch van Beijnum


On 22 feb 2008, at 0:55, Tom Vest wrote:

I agree, to a point.  My prediction is that when the handful of  
mega-ISPs are unable to get the massive quantities of IPv4  
addresses they need (a few dozen account for 90% of all consumption  
in the ARIN region)...


I keep reading assertions like this. Is there any public,  
authoritative evidence to support this claim?


You can download files with all the delegation info from ftp.arin.net.

If there is, is this 90% figure a new development, or rather the  
product of changes in ownership (e.g., MCI-VZ-UU, SBC-ATT, etc.),  
changes in behavior (a run on the bank), some combination of the  
two, or something else altogether?


No, simply because large ISPs need lots of addresses, everyone else  
can make do with just a few.


On 22 feb 2008, at 10:24, Roland Perry wrote:

I would not be surprised to learn that "consumption in the ARIN  
region" includes all the legacy assignments.


By definition, no new legacy assignments are given out.  :-)

So simply looking at recent data will correct for this.

So the quoted metric may well be true, but as unhelpful as claiming  
that "MIT has more address space than the whole of China" (as some  
people do from time to time).


Which is complete nonsense. MIT has 18/8, which is a little under 17  
million addresses. I'm assuming that whatever else on top of that they  
have doesn't amount to a significant number. China is eating up IPv4  
address space like it's going out of style (hm...) and they're now the  
third largest holder with 140 million IPv4 addresses, a hair shy of  
Japan's 142 million and 1/10th of the US's 1411 million.


On 22 feb 2008, at 10:31, Randy Bush wrote:

dear arin hostfolk.  could we please have the histogram for the last  
few years where the Y axis is the amount of allocation and the X  
axis is the number of organizations with that total size of new  
allocations during the period?  you'll have to bucket alloc size in  
some useful way, probably a /16 or shorter or something.


I can't see organizations in ARIN's delegation records, but simply  
counting delegations and rounding sizes to the closest power of 2  
results this for 20070101 - now:


+--+-++
| size | delegations | Maddrs |
+--+-++
|   10 |   2 |   6.82 |
|   11 |   5 |  11.27 |
|   12 |   6 |   6.14 |
|   13 |   6 |   2.96 |
|   14 |   5 |   1.14 |
|   15 |  12 |   1.58 |
|   16 |  24 |   1.53 |
|   17 |  27 |   0.87 |
|   18 |  51 |   0.82 |
|   19 | 110 |   0.90 |
|   20 | 474 |   1.94 |
|   21 | 227 |   0.46 |
|   22 | 415 |   0.42 |
|   23 |   1 |   0.00 |
|   24 |  11 |   0.00 |
+--+-++

Totals:

+-++
| delegations | Maddrs |
+-++
|1376 |  36.86 |
+-++

I.e., /18 or shorter is 134 delegations (10%) and 33.08 million  
addresses (90%).


However, ARIN has the unfortunate practice of backdating delegations  
when people come back for more address space and the new and old  
blocks can form a bigger block. Below the same numbers but with logic  
that tries to correct for this, which makes it impossible to easily  
show the correct numbers of delegations and addresses in one table:


+--+-+
| size | delegations |
+--+-+
|8 |   1 |
|   10 |   4 |
|   11 |  13 |
|   12 |  12 |
|   13 |  12 |
|   14 |  17 |
|   15 |  35 |
|   16 |  38 |
|   17 |  61 |
|   18 |  95 |
|   19 | 222 |
|   20 | 440 |
|   21 | 231 |
|   22 | 425 |
|   23 |   5 |
|   24 |  13 |
+--+-+

+--++
| size | Maddrs |
+--++
|8 |   3.15 |
|   10 |   7.34 |
|   11 |  16.58 |
|   12 |   8.37 |
|   13 |   2.74 |
|   14 |   1.39 |
|   15 |   3.31 |
|   16 |   0.14 |
|   17 |   1.12 |
|   18 |   0.84 |
|   19 |   1.39 |
|   20 |   1.27 |
|   21 |   0.47 |
|   22 |   0.43 |
|   23 |   0.00 |
|   24 |   0.00 |
+--++

Total delegations: 1624, millions of addresses: 48.55.

/18 or more: 195 (12%), 44.16 (91%).




The Cidr Report

2008-02-22 Thread cidr-report

This report has been generated at Fri Feb 22 21:14:25 2008 AEST.
The report analyses the BGP Routing Table of AS2.0 router
and generates a report on aggregation potential within the table.

Check http://www.cidr-report.org for a current version of this report.

Recent Table History
Date  PrefixesCIDR Agg
15-02-08250364  161071
16-02-08250469  161143
17-02-08250593  161385
18-02-08250576  161638
19-02-08250779  162145
20-02-08250973  162448
21-02-08250931  162098
22-02-08251555  162482


AS Summary
 27568  Number of ASes in routing system
 11593  Number of ASes announcing only one prefix
  1578  Largest number of prefixes announced by an AS
AS4755 : VSNL-AS Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ltd. Autonomous System
  88763904  Largest address span announced by an AS (/32s)
AS721  : DISA-ASNBLK - DoD Network Information Center


Aggregation Summary
The algorithm used in this report proposes aggregation only
when there is a precise match using the AS path, so as 
to preserve traffic transit policies. Aggregation is also
proposed across non-advertised address space ('holes').

 --- 22Feb08 ---
ASnumNetsNow NetsAggr  NetGain   % Gain   Description

Table 251770   1624638930735.5%   All ASes

AS4755  1578  408 117074.1%   VSNL-AS Videsh Sanchar Nigam
   Ltd. Autonomous System
AS9498  1163  111 105290.5%   BBIL-AP BHARTI BT INTERNET
   LTD.
AS4323  1372  511  86162.8%   TWTC - Time Warner Telecom,
   Inc.
AS18566 1042  253  78975.7%   COVAD - Covad Communications
   Co.
AS22773  873   94  77989.2%   CCINET-2 - Cox Communications
   Inc.
AS11492 1207  456  75162.2%   CABLEONE - CABLE ONE
AS19262  884  152  73282.8%   VZGNI-TRANSIT - Verizon
   Internet Services Inc.
AS8151  1171  482  68958.8%   Uninet S.A. de C.V.
AS17488  992  336  65666.1%   HATHWAY-NET-AP Hathway IP Over
   Cable Internet
AS15270  641   55  58691.4%   AS-PAETEC-NET - PaeTec
   Communications, Inc.
AS6478   928  381  54758.9%   ATT-INTERNET3 - AT&T WorldNet
   Services
AS2386  1368  858  51037.3%   INS-AS - AT&T Data
   Communications Services
AS18101  712  225  48768.4%   RIL-IDC Reliance Infocom Ltd
   Internet Data Centre,
AS6197  1034  551  48346.7%   BATI-ATL - BellSouth Network
   Solutions, Inc
AS4766   855  397  45853.6%   KIXS-AS-KR Korea Telecom
AS4812   553   95  45882.8%   CHINANET-SH-AP China Telecom
   (Group)
AS19916  556  100  45682.0%   ASTRUM-0001 - OLM LLC
AS7011  1060  614  44642.1%   FRONTIER-AND-CITIZENS -
   Frontier Communications of
   America, Inc.
AS7018  1448 1007  44130.5%   ATT-INTERNET4 - AT&T WorldNet
   Services
AS855554  136  41875.5%   CANET-ASN-4 - Bell Aliant
AS7545   497  115  38276.9%   TPG-INTERNET-AP TPG Internet
   Pty Ltd
AS4808   513  136  37773.5%   CHINA169-BJ CNCGROUP IP
   network China169 Beijing
   Province Network
AS6389   667  294  37355.9%   BELLSOUTH-NET-BLK -
   BellSouth.net Inc.
AS9443   451   78  37382.7%   INTERNETPRIMUS-AS-AP Primus
   Telecommunications
AS17676  506  134  37273.5%   GIGAINFRA BB TECHNOLOGY Corp.
AS6140   608  238  37060.9%   IMPSAT-USA - ImpSat USA, Inc.
AS6198   645  277  36857.1%   BATI-MIA - BellSouth Network
   Solutions, Inc
AS4668   524  173  35167.0%   LGNET-AS-KR LG CNS
AS16814  426   80  34681.2%   NSS S.A.
AS5668   675  330  34551.1%   AS-5668 - CenturyTel Internet
   Holdings, Inc.

Total

BGP Update Report

2008-02-22 Thread cidr-report

BGP Update Report
Interval: 21-Jan-08 -to- 21-Feb-08 (32 days)
Observation Point: BGP Peering with AS2.0

TOP 20 Unstable Origin AS
Rank ASNUpds %  Upds/PfxAS-Name
 1 - AS949877065  1.3%  63.7 -- BBIL-AP BHARTI BT INTERNET LTD.
 2 - AS24731   58209  1.0%1119.4 -- ASN-NESMA National Engineering 
Services and Marketing Company Ltd. (NESMA)
 3 - AS815151119  0.9%  43.3 -- Uninet S.A. de C.V.
 4 - AS958351004  0.9%  42.4 -- SIFY-AS-IN Sify Limited
 5 - AS480249666  0.9%  95.7 -- ASN-IINET iiNet Limited
 6 - AS20214   42564  0.7%   9.2 -- CCCH-AS6 - Comcast Cable 
Communications Holdings, Inc
 7 - AS702937990  0.7% 105.2 -- WINDSTREAM - Windstream 
Communications Inc
 8 - AS26829   37340  0.7%   37340.0 -- YKK-USA - YKK USA,INC
 9 - AS33783   37196  0.6% 273.5 -- EEPAD
10 - AS845236257  0.6%  29.9 -- TEDATA TEDATA
11 - AS462127660  0.5% 179.6 -- UNSPECIFIED UNINET-TH
12 - AS983527231  0.5% 214.4 -- GITS-TH-AS-AP Government 
Information Technology Services
13 - AS982926727  0.5%  33.0 -- BSNL-NIB National Internet 
Backbone
14 - AS473925606  0.4% 110.8 -- CIX-ADELAIDE-AS Internode 
Systems Pty Ltd
15 - AS21332   24839  0.4% 955.3 -- NTC-AS New Telephone Company
16 - AS17488   23944  0.4%  23.5 -- HATHWAY-NET-AP Hathway IP Over 
Cable Internet
17 - AS238622351  0.4%  15.8 -- INS-AS - AT&T Data 
Communications Services
18 - AS24863   22031  0.4%  23.7 -- LINKdotNET-AS
19 - AS20858   21433  0.4%  94.4 -- EGYNET-AS
20 - AS461820555  0.4% 337.0 -- INET-TH-AS Internet Thailand 
Company Limited


TOP 20 Unstable Origin AS (Updates per announced prefix)
Rank ASNUpds %  Upds/PfxAS-Name
 1 - AS26829   37340  0.7%   37340.0 -- YKK-USA - YKK USA,INC
 2 - AS19334   18498  0.3%   18498.0 -- SPORTLINE-DBC - SPORTLINE
 3 - AS404749552  0.2%9552.0 -- ABML-2 - Advantage Business 
Media, LLC
 4 - AS309297453  0.1%7453.0 -- HUTCB Hidrotechnical Faculty - 
Technical University
 5 - AS22629   13496  0.2%6748.0 -- NORWORLD - NORTHWESTERN 
CORPORATION
 6 - AS414825819  0.1%5819.0 -- CLUEAG-AS Clue AG IT Solutions
 7 - AS134955737  0.1%5737.0 -- NTT do Brasil Telecomunicaoes 
Ltda
 8 - AS322075637  0.1%5637.0 -- 
 9 - AS212915029  0.1%5029.0 -- OMEGABANK 8 Dragatsaniou str
10 - AS193898847  0.1%4423.5 -- GOLUB - GOLUB CORPORATION
11 - AS190174027  0.1%4027.0 -- QUALCOMM-QWBS-LV - Qualcomm 
Wireless Business Solutions
12 - AS289778020  0.1%4010.0 -- UN-UNLB United Nations 
Logistics Base Brindisi, Italy
13 - AS292253808  0.1%3808.0 -- TAIF-TELCOM-AS JSC TAIF-TELCOM
14 - AS9179 9417  0.2%3139.0 -- KNOWTION-LONDON Knowtion Ltd.
15 - AS27197   12306  0.2%3076.5 -- 
16 - AS32913  0.1%2913.0 -- BUSINESSUNITY-AS Business Unity 
Ltd.
17 - AS145765802  0.1%2901.0 -- RHNL-NET - Righthosting.com
18 - AS797410849  0.2%2712.2 -- Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo
19 - AS404882708  0.1%2708.0 -- NII-RICHFIELD - National 
Interstate Insurance Company
20 - AS286462617  0.1%2617.0 -- Confederacao Interestadual das 
Cooperativas Ligadas ao Sicredi


TOP 20 Unstable Prefixes
Rank Prefix Upds % Origin AS -- AS Name
 1 - 203.101.87.0/24   52509  0.8%   AS9498  -- BBIL-AP BHARTI BT INTERNET LTD.
 2 - 203.55.229.160/2  47153  0.8%   AS4802  -- ASN-IINET iiNet Limited
 3 - 12.108.254.0/24   37340  0.6%   AS26829 -- YKK-USA - YKK USA,INC
 4 - 124.7.35.0/24 28991  0.5%   AS9583  -- SIFY-AS-IN Sify Limited
 5 - 80.243.64.0/2024314  0.4%   AS21332 -- NTC-AS New Telephone Company
 6 - 203.16.208.0/24   24176  0.4%   AS4739  -- CIX-ADELAIDE-AS Internode 
Systems Pty Ltd
 7 - 202.140.63.0/24   19807  0.3%   AS17443 -- ESTELCOM-AP International 
Internet gateway , India
 AS9498  -- BBIL-AP BHARTI BT INTERNET LTD.
 8 - 64.79.128.0/1919485  0.3%   AS23005 -- SWITCH-COMMUNICATIONS - SWITCH 
Communications Group LLC
 9 - 207.181.144.0/24  19299  0.3%   AS19750 -- CTI-TX - C2C Fiber, Inc.
 AS32004 -- BIG-ASN - Business Information 
Group, Inc.
10 - 63.169.11.0/2418498  0.3%   AS19334 -- SPORTLINE-DBC - SPORTLINE
11 - 89.4.130.0/24 14319  0.2%   AS24731 -- ASN-NESMA National Engineering 
Services and Marketing Company Ltd. (NESMA)
12 - 89.4.131.0/24 14142  0.2%   AS24731 -- ASN-NESMA National Engineering 
Services and Marketing Company Ltd. (NESMA)
13 - 89.4.128.0/24 12558  0.2%   AS24731 -- ASN-NESMA National Engineering 
Services and Market

RE: IPV4 as a Commodity for Profit

2008-02-22 Thread michael.dillon

> Operational comment: Look on the bright side, they may follow 
> Comcast's example and deploy ipv6 instead!

Or they may not, and their share price will suffer as a
result. People making the technical decision to stick
with IPv4 for their large network are also making a
decision to limit the growth of the network and to
limit the growth of the business. As the IPv4
exhaustion issue becomes more widely understood,
companies who have not prepared themselves to
deploy IPv6 will find themselves under increasing
scrutiny by shareholders.

Comcast moved to IPv6 because their network was 
running out of RFC 1918 space. Since DOCSIS 3 includes
IPv6 support, they made the decision to go to IPv6
rather than continue to spend money on shoehorning
themselves into the limited IPv4 address space.

Many people have not yet come to terms with how big
the IPv6 space is, even the /32 that an ISP gets or
the /48 that a site gets. We probably need to start
talking about the number of subnetting bits available.

For instance, an IPv4 ISP who assigns a /24 to subnets within
their architecture and who has a /16 allocated for their
architecture, has 8 bits available to subnet with.
If an IPv6 ISP decides to assign a /64 to subnets and
allocate a single /48 then they will also have 
8 subnet bits available. So you could consider
a /48 to be roughly equivalent to an IPv4 /16.

Now, if an IPv6 ISP decides to strictly follow the
rule of assigning a /48 per site internally, then
each PoP or data center will be allocated a /48
meaning that each PoP or data center now has
8 subnet bits available.

This amount of legroom allows you to do things like
standardize subnet layouts for all sites, regardless
of size, including the actual bits used from the
8 subnet bits. For instance, you can predict that
if a PoP has 2001:1918:123/48 you know that if there
is a switch connecting to a data center at that site,
it will have the IPv6 address 2001:1918:123:d033::1
because your standard design has ::d033/64 assigned
to the switch filling that role and Interface ID 1
assigned to its management interface.

This kind of standardization makes it much easier to
deploy PoPs regardless of whether it is in Dubai,
where the data center is a half rack of webservers,
or The Dalles where it is a 40,000 square foot warehouse.
It also simplifies management and troubleshooting
of the network.

--Michael Dillon


Re: IPV4 as a Commodity for Profit

2008-02-22 Thread Randy Bush


dear arin hostfolk.  could we please have the histogram for the last few 
years where the Y axis is the amount of allocation and the X axis is the 
number of organizations with that total size of new allocations during 
the period?  you'll have to bucket alloc size in some useful way, 
probably a /16 or shorter or something.


thanks.

randy


Re: IPV4 as a Commodity for Profit

2008-02-22 Thread Roland Perry


In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, Tom 
Vest <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes
My prediction is that when the handful of   mega-ISPs are unable to 
get the massive quantities of IPv4   addresses they need (a few dozen 
account for 90% of all consumption   in the ARIN region)...


I keep reading assertions like this. Is there any public, authoritative 
evidence to support this claim?
If there is, is this 90% figure a new development, or rather the 
product of changes in ownership (e.g., MCI-VZ-UU, SBC-ATT, etc.), 
changes in behavior (a run on the bank), some combination of the two, 
or something else altogether?


I would not be surprised to learn that "consumption in the ARIN region" 
includes all the legacy assignments. So the quoted metric may well be 
true, but as unhelpful as claiming that "MIT has more address space than 
the whole of China" (as some people do from time to time).


In the current context, just because they have received large 
allocations in the past, does not mean these few dozen ISPs will 
necessarily need similarly large new ipv4 allocations in future.


Operational comment: Look on the bright side, they may follow Comcast's 
example and deploy ipv6 instead!

--
Roland Perry