steve herman 610 sewall ave ____________________________________ From: r...@tristatestormwatch.com To: asburyst...@aol.com Sent: 3/24/2013 2:54:44 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time Subj: Weather Update - March 24th
WET SNOW AND WIND ON MONDAY RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY MONDAY MORNING CHANGING TO WET SNOW 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON COLDER SURFACES WITH JUST SLUSH ON ROADWAYS HOWEVER, UNDER HEAVY BANDING, SOME AREAS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ COULD SEE 6 INCHES SUNDAY - MARCH 25TH A snowy Monday on the way....but at this time of the year, accumulations are highly dependent on the rate of snowfall. Any light or moderate snow will melt on roadways and only accumulate slowly on grassy surfaces. Heavy rates of snowfall would bring accumulations on all surfaces. The timeframe for the snow is about 12 hours....starting around sunrise and ending around sunset. The computer guidance is showing a compact storm system that is going to have a deformation band of heavy snow on its northwest side. It is under than band where snow will accumulate on all surfaces and result in some travel problems Monday afternoon. The most likely location for the band of heavier snow is in central/southern NJ. North to northeast winds will be on the increase Monday with gusts to 35 mph, but the storm will be moving out to sea Monday night so this will not be a long duration wind event. A general 2 to 4 inches of snow is possible over much of NJ, with lesser amounts north of I-80. This accumulation will generally be on colder surfaces such as grass and car tops, but again, there is likely to an area somewhere in southern and/or central NJ where this ends up being a more significant snow event with up to 6 inches possible. Will be watching radar trends Monday morning to see exactly where this heavier band of snow will park itself. All snow will end around or just after sunset Monday. Easter weekend looks ok for now, but no warm up in sight. SATURDAY - MARCH 24TH The calendar says Spring, but winter is not done yet as computer guidance is converging on the idea of a winter storm in our area Monday and Monday night. Low pressure moving through the Tennessee Valley will bring snow to portions of the midwest and lower Ohio Valley. This storm will be forced to redevelop off the mid-Atlantic coast as a result of strong blocking in the higher latitudes. As the storm gets cranking along the coast and begins to move northeastward just off the Delaware and New Jersey coast, mixes precipitation will develop in the pre-dawn hours on Monday morning. While surface temperatures will be in the 30s, it will be quite cold just above the surface, so as precipitation gets heavier mixed precipitation should change to all snow....first over inland sections and then along the coast. With the track of the surface storm, placement of upper features and amount of cold air available, this would certainly be a significant snowstorm if it occurred in in January or February....but its late March and things have to come together just right in order to get accumulating snow this time of the year. The elevation of the sun above the horizon in late March is the same as it is in mid-September, so even with cloud cover, the strong late March sun is able to keep roadways warm enough to prevent snow from accumulating....unless the snow falls very heavily. What is becoming apparent is that the storm has the capability to produce heavy precipitation so the door is open for accumulations area wide, first on grassy surfaces, then perhaps on paved surfaces as the sun begins to get lower in the horizon late in the day on Monday. Will be providing a snowfall accumulation forecast later, but for now an accumulating snow looks likely throughout the area Monday and Monday night with better chances inland over higher elevations, but accumulations all the way to the beaches are certainly possible. After the storm, temperatures will be in the 40s for much of next week. Still no signs of warm weather through the end of March and likely the first week of April. © Tri-State Storm Watch. All rights reserved. If you are unable to read this e-mail, please go to: _http://www.tristatestormwatch.com/pages/forecast_ (http://www.tristatestormwatch.com/pages/forecast) . Tri-State Storm Watch 1234 Any Street Shark River Hills NJ USA If you do not wish to receive messages from us, _click here_ (http://www.tristatestormwatch.com/livesite/unsubscribe.php?email_address=asburysteve@aol .com) . [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/AsburyPark/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/AsburyPark/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: asburypark-dig...@yahoogroups.com asburypark-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: asburypark-unsubscr...@yahoogroups.com <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/