(posters note. I raised this point a few times in the past couple of years, and
a few people
thought I was crazy for mentioning it)
Paper: Climate change will devastate N.J
Experts working to avert economic, erosion turmoil
BY TODD B. BATES ENVIRONMENTAL WRITER AUGUST 10, 2008
Sea level rise, increased flooding, more frequent and intense storms and other
impacts
from climate change could cost New Jersey billions of dollars, according to a
recent report.
And in a bid to limit economic and environmental costs, activists, officials
and academics
are gearing up to develop strategies for adapting to climate change.
"Anything will help, but once that ocean gets its mind up to come ashore, it's
pretty hard
to turn it back," said Philip Jacobs, 87, who lives on the Shrewsbury River in
Rumson.
"I'm so close to the ocean here that it does bother me, but I've lived here for
70 years and
then some, and so it'd be tough for me" to move to Freehold or somewhere else,
he said.
"If you're really going to protect yourself totally, you got to go further
inland," said Jacobs,
who two years ago saw the devastation in Louisiana wrought by Hurricane Katrina
in
2005.
Rising water
A report by University of Maryland's Center for Integrative Environmental
Research last
month says climate change could have a multibillion-dollar impact on New
Jersey's
economy. A number of groups are focusing on how to adapt to a changing climate.
"The state of New Jersey's greatest challenge is likely to be in adapting to
climate change
along its expansive coast, as this is where the most significant economic and
ecological
impacts will occur," the report says.
Steep and unprecedented increases in greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide
from
burning fossil fuels, have occurred since the industrial revolution, warming
the Earth's
surface by about 1 degree in the 20th century, the report says.
Average temperatures in New Jersey are expected to increase by 2 to 8 degrees,
with
summer and fall temperatures rising the most, the report says.
By 2100, expanding ocean water and melting polar ice caps will raise sea levels
and
accelerate shoreline erosion, the report says.
An estimated 1 to 3 percent of New Jersey's 210-mile shoreline, including
Raritan and
Delaware bays, will be inundated by the end of the century, according to the
report, citing
previous research.
Moreover, 6.5 to 9 percent of the coastal area occasionally will be inundated
by flooding,
the report says.
"Considerable strain will be placed on New Jersey's coastal development and
transportation infrastructure, not to mention the estimated 6 million people
that will live
in New Jersey's coastal counties by 2020," the report says.
Tourism is likely to suffer because of weakening coastal infrastructure, beach
erosion and
the threat of inundation in places such as Atlantic City, among other impacts
in the state,
the report says.
Strategies
The American Littoral Society is working on strategies to address environmental
and
economic impacts of climate change along the coast, according to an e-mail from
Tim
Dillingham, executive director of the coastal conservation group.
The strategies are being developed with support from the Fund for New Jersey
and
Mushett Family Foundation and in partnership with the Urban Coast Institute at
Monmouth
University, the e-mail says.
"This is really the launch of an effort to have New Jersey deal aggressively .
. . with sea-
level rise," Dillingham said in an interview.
New Jersey also needs to keep working to reduce the causes of climate change,
he said in
another e-mail.
The strategies will cover wetlands conservation, restoration and migration as
sea levels
rise, as well as incentives to relocate and build in nonhazardous areas and
invest in coastal
conservation.
They also will cover stormwater and low-impact development, water management,
biological diversity, rebuilding fish populations, and development in
high-hazard areas.
"I think the state of New Jersey has started to address the issues . . . after
a lot of years of
inaction," Dillingham said.
The state Department of Environmental Protection has begun building "an agenda
for
solutions to this problem as well, and we anticipate working very closely with
them," he
said.
Many of the solutions will have to originate at the state level and be
transferred to
regional and local governments, which haven't done as good a job in recognizing
the
issues, Dillingham said.
DEP officials "expect to work with (Dillingham) as well as the Urban Coast
Institute," said
Ruth Ehinger, DEP coastal program manager.
The DEP has initiatives to address climate change particularly in coastal
areas, including
funding land elevation measurements in Salem, Cumberland and Cape May counties
and recently adopted flood hazard rules, Ehinger said.
Climate change also will have noncoastal impacts, said Jeanne Herb, director of
the DEP's
Office of Policy, Planning and Science.
They include heat stress in urban communities, where the most vulnerable
populations
live, as well as impacts on infrastructure, agriculture and habitat, Herb said.
"We know that the costs of addressing these issues are going to be a serious
investment,
but we also know that the costs associated with no action are going to be
significant," she
said.
This fall, one of the DEP's initiatives will be to work with the academic
community to
consider what New Jersey's public policy agenda should be in addressing climate
change,
she said.
Restoration and resilience
Tony MacDonald, who directs Monmouth University's Urban Coast Institute in West
Long
Branch, said the littoral society strategies "make sense to me," and the
institute has a few
related initiatives.
The institute is trying to collaborate with Dillingham, particularly in
attempting to identify
natural areas along estuaries and the coast that need restoration, according to
MacDonald.
Such sites are beneficial when it comes to hazard and flood control and
managing
stormwater, he said.
The institute, partnering with the littoral society, also will begin discussing
the state's
coastal zone management rules in September, he said.
"We're going to do a dialogue there to see how those rules might be
strengthened or
changed to help address climate change," MacDonald said.
The institute also is looking at working with communities to develop a
framework for
resilient coastal communities that can bounce back quickly if a storm hits, he
said.
And institute officials "think there should be some way" to better link state
offices that
focus on habitat conservation, shore protection, land use, and emergency
management
and mitigation planning, he said.
"Lastly, do the communities have the right set of laws in place to respond to a
storm?"
MacDonald asked.
As development increases in coastal areas, more people and property are at risk
every
year, according to a white paper on the Urban Coast Institute's Web site.
With climate change and its impacts inevitable, "it is only a matter of time
before the next
coastal catastrophe is upon us," according to the paper, "A Framework for
Measuring
Coastal Hazard Resilience in New Jersey Communities."
"The time to take action is now, and the best place to start is building
disaster-resilient
communities, especially in our coastal areas," says the paper, by a University
of South
Carolina researcher.
"I think the things we want to avoid are . . . paying billions of dollars . . .
to bail out
development that goes in the wrong place or to continue to pay for storm damage
for
places that were built in the past in the wrong place," Dillingham said.
Will we "deal with it aggressively, or are we gonna stick our heads in the sand
and wait for
the . . . waves to roll in?" he asked.
A hurricane like Katrina "would cover Asbury Park clean up to the Asbury Park
circle,
positively," said Jacobs, the Rumson resident.
His house was only about 3 feet above the highest tide during the December 1992
nor'easter, he said.
"That's not just a little water," Jacobs said of the surge from a Katrina-like
storm. "It's a big
rush of water, so we are vulnerable as all get out."
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