And Malthus Wept: The
Rapid Decline of
Africa
By IMRE
LOEFLER
Whatever indices one cares to use,
there is little doubt that sub-Saharan Africa is in steady decline. Per capita
income, life expectancy, perinatal and maternal mortality, forest cover,
agricultural output, water availability are all indices showing such
deterioration and decline, as are the standards of education, security and
morality.
Currently, there are two sets of
explanations proffered. The West the former colonial powers as well as the
twin guardians of Western economic ideology, the Bretton Wood institutions
contend that authoritarianism, bad governance, corruption, profligacy and
tribalism are the main reasons of decline.
The implication is that if we had
Messrs Bush, Blair, Chirac and Schroder at the helm, if we had the Capitol,
Westminster, the Chamber of Deputies and the Bundestag, we would prosper and be
healthy and happy.
An extension of this argument is the
notion that independence was the crucial moment when decline began and that
something is thus wrong with the gene pool and the societal
intellect.
The contrary argument, advanced by a
section of African intellectuals and leaders, is that Africas decline, its
"marginalisation," is the result of a neocolonial conspiracy, of machinations
designed to keep Africa a poor and ignorant producer of a few primary
commodities that the northern hemisphere cannot produce and thus to keep the
continent in slavery forever.
More moderate Africans tend to
concede that bad governance and corruption are major factors in the decline of
the continent, that the leadership is wanting, but that these severe handicaps
are the result of the colonial past and that they are being perpetuated by the
West because of a rigged market and continuous interference.
The Western interpretation of
Africas plight is wanting because it describes secondary phenomena rather than
the historical causes.
The African explanations radical
and moderate do recognise that the decline in some way is linked to colonial
history, yet, unfortunately, judgements of "colonialism" and "neocolonialism"
are heavily influenced by resentment and are distorted by the lack of historical
perspective.
Neither the Western nor the African
accusers seem to have considered the immense ecological dislocation that Western
technology has caused on this continent in the past hundred years.
The introduction of northern
technology, the transfer of the accomplishments of the triple revolutions
agricultural, industrial and medical have overwhelmed the fragile continent in
a short time. The ancient African cultures have except for meaningless
externalia succumbed largely because however much Africans resented the
invaders, their impositions and their acquisition of land, Africans were eager
to partake in the apparent benefits of superior technology and hence they
flocked to schools, workshops and churches and assimilated the attitude of
consumers towards the offerings of the foreign culture.
In the process, after the impact of
the initial epidemics, clashes and forced migrations had died down, the
continent began to benefit from the introduced technology benefit in terms of
development indices. People cherished the obvious benefits brought to them by
administrators, farmers, engineers, teachers and missionaries.
The quest for liberty and
self-determination came later, inevitably so, for the people discovered the
contradictions between the preaching and the practice of the colonial
regimes.
By the time of independence, the
ecological dislocation throughout the continent was rampant. This dislocation
was insidious at first and clearly understood to be beneficial. When half of the
forests of Kenya had been cut down either to provide the sawmills with timber or
to make place for coffee, tea and dairy farms, this was to the undisputed
benefit of all concerned. So was the carving of farms out of the savannah, the
building of dams and the drainage of wetlands.
The one, unforeseen effect of
northern technology was the rapid increase in population, largely because of
reductions in child mortality by the agency of better nutrition and the
prevention and treatment of communicable diseases.
About 50 years after Western
technology had begun to make an impact, at the height of the colonial era, the
population of the continent had trebled; in some countries, it had quadrupled.
Nevertheless, were it not for the nefarious combination of authoritarian rule,
racial discrimination, alienation of land and exploitation of labour, some
African countries could have considered themselves happy places, except that the
population pressure began to make itself felt, not so much in terms of absolute
numbers but rather in terms of the changing demographic pyramid: half of the
population were children who required food, shelter, medical care and schooling,
without contributing to the national economy.
In those countries where the
transition to independence was relatively peaceful, the momentum of development
was maintained for 10 to 15 years, by which time, however, the population had
doubled again and both the rate of growth and the absolute numbers began to
overwhelm the economy and deplete its natural resources.
Unfortunately the men politicians,
tribal chiefs, clan leaders, paterfamiliases and clergymen continued to be
fascinated by fertility and did not see the growing difficulties, the increasing
friction. The forest kept contracting, the deserts expanding, the rivers drying
up, land became virtually unavailable, medical care deteriorated and education
suffered, yet the men allowed the populations to double again.
Over the past 20 years, the decline
of Africa has accelerated and would have done so even without Aids. The
continent has continued to have bad presidents and bad governments. It remains
to be seen what Messrs Bush, Blair, Chirac and Schroder would or could do if
they had to govern countries which, within 100 years, due to the onslaught of a
culture that has evolved in the north, have lost their identities, had to
assimilate, have lost their forests, their savannah, swamps and rivers, their
traditional food, and have, in those 100 years, thanks to a combination of
agricultural, industrial and medical technologies, increased their numbers close
to tenfold, half of them being children.
Imre Loefler is a surgeon at
Nairobi Hospital
