The data on ham numbers/classes is accurate, but one has to be careful with the interpretation. (Glass half full/half empty, etc.).
When I was first licensed in 1963, only a few potential candidates would go through all the necessary CW and theory testing, even if available by mail with a local ham administering the tests. But many of those who did this tended to have a very serious interest in ham radio, particularly the technical part, because it was so difficult. Things changed over the years due to the increasing ease of obtaining a license here in the U.S. The exam information was much easier to pass with the publishing of the actual questions and the actual answers, even to the point of including the distractors! The tests no longer required the candidate to draw circuits from memory. Now I think even the diagrams have been removed. But we have many times more hams today than just a few decades ago. Many of those hams are Technician class. In fact, when the no code licenses became available, you started seeing entire families being licensed. My wife and daughter both had Tech licenses after morse code was dropped. Many of these hams had minimal interest in HF and we could not get many of them interested in learning morse code to upgrade to General. I have watched this closely since running VE test sessions since the early 1980's. The information you referenced is from 1999 and even further changes have occurred. Now with the total elimination of the CW requirement, more hams are upgrading to the General class and some even to Extra class, who would not have done this with even a minimal 5 wpm CW requirement, much less the more difficult requirements of the past. The percentage increase this year in General class licensees is quite large. If you are an ARRL member, note Jan 2007 QST, p. 92. and compare the number of new Generals for 2007. There are nearly as many Generals (mostly upgrades) as new Technician class licensees coming in to ham radio. In 2006 it was barely 20% of new Techs. The numbers of new Techs is still holding its own too. Many older operators will continue for decades before they become SK's, so we should see some HF growth. Another factor is the low cost of equipment, which is a fraction of what it was in the past and has tremendous capability such as digital readout, minimal drift, multimode, multiband, etc. So I am fairly optimistic that we will do fairly well with new HF hams here in the U.S. In other parts of the world we may see increased numbers as the standard of living improves in developing countries. 73, Rick, KV9U Michael Hatzakis Jr MD wrote: > <<< The HF bands are not going to become quiet. Where are you hearing this? > > In response to this question, there is data to suggest HF usage will > continue to decline. > > This is taken from: http://www.hamradio-online.com/1999/aug/growth.html. I > cannot authenticate the source of this data, but it is a trend I have read > about from many other sources, but do not have those other references handy. > > << The U.S. Amateur Radio Service just made a switch from being HF-centric > (for nearly 100 years) to being VHF/UHF-centric. This change will accelerate > as many HF-capable Amateur Radio operators reach the end of their life span. > > > HF operation will continue to be important to Amateur Radio - but is no > longer the defining characteristic of ham radio nor the lure for attracting > new members. >>> > >
