Re: Openmoko Community Survey 2011 – Results
The discussion of the poll run by Lukas suggested to ask for acceptable prices for a new Openmoko device. Openmoko Community Survey 2011 – please take part! We decided to start a poll about which hardware and which software you use or are interested in these days. The results will help us to focus on relevant hard-/software. ... about 75eur too expensive (compared to the early bird fee). may another poll to see how many people have an interest in really buying the gta04 at certain fees would good. Making a price poll is a good idea! We may learn how to better size and define the price for the next group tour. So please use this form to give your statement: http://www.handheld-linux.com/wiki.php?page=GTA04%20Poll I will publish the results when they become significant. Here are the results (which I think are quite significant): Q1: What would be the maximum price at which you immediately would buy a GTA04 Complete device (considering its high-end feature set)? EUR (incl. sales tax if applicable) Q2: What would be the maximum price at which you grudgingly (unwillingly) would still buy a GTA04 Complete device, if it is not available at the price said above? EUR (incl. sales tax if applicable) Note: Q2 was added after approx. 30 responses arrived. For those early answers, it is assumed Q1=Q2 although we would have to expect a real answer of Q2 Q1. So we have collected: * a total of N=109 answers (see appendix) * some answers where the unwillingly-price is lower than the immediately-price (our English may not have been optimally formulated) * Min Q1: 50 EUR Q2: 100 EUR * Max Q1: 800 EUR Q2: 950 EUR * Avg Q1: 323,29 EUR Q2: 363,05 EUR * Median Q1: 200 EUR Q2: 300 EUR * 25/75 span Q1: 200-300 EUR Q2: 250-450 EUR By cumulating answers and plotting over different price levels we can see how different prices influence how many GTA04 devices would be bought. (read as: at 500 EUR 20% of the respondents tell they would buy immediately) Q1: http://lists.goldelico.com/pipermail/gta04-owner/attachments/20120116/cb849e81/attachment-0002.pdf Q2: http://lists.goldelico.com/pipermail/gta04-owner/attachments/20120116/cb849e81/attachment-0003.pdf Let me describe my first observations from these figures (not deeply elaborated): 1. this result shows that we have a very large bandwidth what we see as an acceptable price. For some of us the current price (which is production cost driven) is ok, while for others it is far too high. 2. I find it interesting that there is no big difference between Q1 and Q2 which indicates that we either buy immediately or are just willing to add 50 EUR to make us unwilling buyers. This appears to be a strong mental level of maximum acceptable price. Or is it just available budget? If we have it we buy immediately, if we don't we can't even buy unwillingly? Or is it driven by the addition of Q2 only after 30 responses on Q1 only? 3. at the current price of the GTA04 group tour (450-500 EUR range) we can expect approx. 30% buyers. This would still mean 6000 of the originally sold GTA02 devices. Hm. We are still far away from this figure with subscriptions. What are the reasons? 4. a final observation is that I have to conclude that some of us have no realistic perception of the market prices. More than 40% would not want to pay more than 200-250 EUR for a complete GTA04 (even with case etc.). This makes me really puzzled as the GTA02 was never sold cheaper than 199 EUR. Isn't getting UMTS, fast 3D graphics any value to the majority of the Openmoko community? The cheapest UMTS Android 2.2 device I can currently get in Germany is at 129 EUR (most likely from some overstock clearance). Has a 320x240 display, no sensors, no free and open software. No hardware description, no schematics. Appears to be crap and much less featured than the GTA04. But the poll result indicates this is the way we should go. Really? I wnder how the community thinks it can be done at such low prices? One answer (that I don't like at all) could be: http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-child-labor-2012-1 So please prove my last observation and conclusion to be wrong. BR, Nikolaus Appendix: Q1 Q2 249 249 550 550 500 500 800 800 600 600 699 699 300 300 650 650 500 500 480 480 300 300 499 499 300 300 400 400 500 500 500 500 369 369 200 200 350 350 200 200 749 749 200 200 100 100 200 200 100 100 300 300 250 250 400 400 250 250 350 350 250 250 749 749 500 600 500 600 275 375 600 850 300 350 500 649 350 500 375 350 100 150 370 340 399 499 400 350 400 500 800 950 200 250 400 450 400 600 300 400 400 370 200 250 200 240 80 150 200 300 749 300 200 250 200 300 100 200 150 200 400 500 150 160 250 350 150 250 200 300 149 180 250 300 200 250 400 400 200 250 749 120 200 300 200 200 100 200 200 250 300 400 150 300 150 200 200 250 200 250 150 200 200 250 300 400 200 200 400 350 200 299 150 200 200 250 400 479 150 200 130 200 100 150
Re: Openmoko Community Survey 2011 – Results
The cheapest UMTS Android 2.2 device I can currently get in Germany is at 129 EUR (most likely from some overstock clearance). Android phones start around 20 USD at quantity 1000 in China, see HEDY as one example of many http://en.hedy.com.cn/product/mobile.htm Probably not with 3G for 25 USD, but that's just another detail and the costs of silicon are not the driver, so even with 3G expect it to be coming down into the sub-50 USD range fast, if it's not there yet (just call or email HEDY if you want to know, really. They have nice spreadsheets with their currently shipping products...). http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-child-labor-2012-1 Apple is one of the few Western companies that truly care about worker conditions at their factories. The lobby-driven propaganda will go on because it works so well, but it's a flat out lie. Apple has the highest employee standards. Every worker at every Chinese IT industry factory would love to work on an Apple line or a product that eventually goes to Apple, because the standards are higher, deep into the supply chain. At least 20-30% higher pay, better dormitories, better food, better safety standards, and so on. Apple is the most humble and truly best company about all the good things they do every day, without wasting time on competing in the talk circus. If you worry about worker conditions, start everywhere non-Apple. Do you care whether this story is true, or whether it suits your needs? 4. a final observation is that I have to conclude that some of us have no realistic perception of the market prices. Many people seem to want to pay more for a good headphone nowadays than for a good phone. Maybe it is not clear to most what a 'good' phone should be? HTC bought Dr. Dre's Beats a few months ago to the reported tune of 300+ million USD http://www.engadget.com/2011/08/10/htc-to-buy-a-chunk-of-beats-electronics-keep-dr-dre-in-a-lab-w/ Keep up the good work, HTC! (and don't forget factory workers :-)) Cheers, Wolfgang ___ Openmoko community mailing list community@lists.openmoko.org http://lists.openmoko.org/mailman/listinfo/community
Re: Re: Openmoko Community Survey 2011 ? Results
Hi Nikolaus, The cheapest UMTS Android 2.2 device I can currently get in Germany is at 129 EUR (most likely from some overstock clearance). Has a 320x240 display, no sensors, no free and open software. No hardware description, no schematics. Appears to be crap and much less featured than the GTA04. But the poll result indicates this is the way we should go. Really? I need to correct you in this case: The cheapest UMTS-Abdroid is the Huawei Ideos X3 if I did not miss anything. It comes with Gingerbread 2.3, GPS, Sensors (see http://www.inside-handy.de/handys/huawei_u8510-ideos-x3/2432_allgemein.html) for a price of 100 EUR. Of course it is absolutely not open and in my opinion the GTA04 does not compete against it, but still it is a very usable phone for little money. However it is clear, that you will never be able to compete against those prices unless you build a far bigger number of phones. The most people who seriously consider buying a GTA04 will probably spend more money if the get all the extra features. The GTA04 is not and will never be a mass market product:. -- n...@el-hennig.de Lubarsky's Law of Cybernetic Entomology: There's always one more bug. ___ Openmoko community mailing list community@lists.openmoko.org http://lists.openmoko.org/mailman/listinfo/community
Re: [Gta04-owner] Openmoko Community Survey 2011 – Results
On Monday 16 January 2012 08:53:04 Dr. H. Nikolaus Schaller wrote: 3. at the current price of the GTA04 group tour (450-500 EUR range) we can expect approx. 30% buyers. This would still mean 6000 of the originally sold GTA02 devices. Hm. We are still far away from this figure with subscriptions. What are the reasons? I think a lot of people who bought GTA02 were not satisfied with it. For me it was quite long way before i could actually start to use it as a phone (one year). A lot of people gave up and do not want Openmoko phone anymore. Regards Radek ___ Openmoko community mailing list community@lists.openmoko.org http://lists.openmoko.org/mailman/listinfo/community
Re: Openmoko Community Survey 2011 – Results
Dne 16.1.2012 09:31, Dr. H. Nikolaus Schaller napsal(a): Let me describe my first observations from these figures (not deeply elaborated): 1. this result shows that we have a very large bandwidth what we see as an acceptable price. For some of us the current price (which is production cost driven) is ok, while for others it is far too high. 2. I find it interesting that there is no big difference between Q1 and Q2 which indicates that we either buy immediately or are just willing to add 50 EUR to make us unwilling buyers. This appears to be a strong mental level of maximum acceptable price. Or is it just available budget? If we have it we buy immediately, if we don't we can't even buy unwillingly? Or is it driven by the addition of Q2 only after 30 responses on Q1 only? 3. at the current price of the GTA04 group tour (450-500 EUR range) we can expect approx. 30% buyers. This would still mean 6000 of the originally sold GTA02 devices. Hm. We are still far away from this figure with subscriptions. What are the reasons? Because many people (not me) thinks that Neo FreeRunner was a failure, not just owners, but also people who read blogs, forums, e-mails... Associating Phoenix Phone with Openmoko's faults is bad marketing idea and is killing whole GTA04 project. Phoenix Phone needs at least whole new case and display competing with today's phone designs. 4. a final observation is that I have to conclude that some of us have no realistic perception of the market prices. More than 40% would not want to pay more than 200-250 EUR for a complete GTA04 (even with case etc.). On the contrary, many people compare GTA04 price with other OMAP3 based Linux phones like Nokia N900, simple supply and demand. 749 € is _not_ realistic for OMAP3 smartphone in 2012. This makes me really puzzled as the GTA02 was never sold cheaper than 199 EUR. Isn't getting UMTS, fast 3D graphics any value to the majority of the Openmoko community? Original Neo FreeRunner was never sold expensively than $399 (approx. 315€). Disclaimer: I voted higher price counting Navigation Board's price to Neo FreeRunner's. The cheapest UMTS Android 2.2 device I can currently get in Germany is at 129 EUR (most likely from some overstock clearance). Has a 320x240 display, no sensors, no free and open software. No hardware description, no schematics. Appears to be crap and much less featured than the GTA04. But the poll result indicates this is the way we should go. Really? I wnder how the community thinks it can be done at such low prices? Learn some pragmatic approach: http://www.raspberrypi.org/archives/509 Manufacturing in China is not always done under bad employees conditions. Also Raspberry Pi for $25/$35 is too expensive. The Allwinner A10 board with ARM Cortex-A8 and MALI400MP 3D graphics (with Open Source userspace driver) could be manufactured for $15. I know, it's just a CPU board, but what is your manufacturing price for just a GTA04's CPU board without peripherals? http://rhombus-tech.net/allwinner_a10/ http://rhombus-tech.net/allwinner_a10/news/ http://rhombus-tech.net/allwinner_a10/pcb/ http://elinux.org/Embedded_Open_Modular_Architecture/PCMCIA I think GTA05 could be done more competitive. Best Regards, Martix PS: I'd like to donate to Kickstarter campaing for making complete GTA05 device under 300 €. ___ Openmoko community mailing list community@lists.openmoko.org http://lists.openmoko.org/mailman/listinfo/community
Re: Openmoko Community Survey 2011 – Results
On Monday 16 January 2012 14:24:38 Martix wrote: Dne 16.1.2012 09:31, Dr. H. Nikolaus Schaller napsal(a): (...) But the poll result indicates this is the way we should go. Really? No. Not if I'm concerned. I wonder how the community thinks it can be done at such low prices? Learn some pragmatic approach: http://www.raspberrypi.org/archives/509 Manufacturing in China is not always done under bad employees conditions. But quality control, as well as working condition, is an issue that is difficult to check without physically being around. Also Raspberry Pi for $25/$35 is too expensive. The price level for the Raspberry Pi is possible because the closed, undocumented chip is sponsored by Broadcom, and the board is produced in 10k volumes (as you probably are aware). The Allwinner A10 board with ARM Cortex-A8 and MALI400MP 3D graphics (with Open Source userspace driver) could be manufactured for $15. I know, it's just a CPU board, but what is your manufacturing price for just a GTA04's CPU board without peripherals? See a previous mail from Christoph; about 500 euro per 8-layer PCB (EMTPY! No chip placed yet!) in small volumes. The board is close to what is technically possible, not counting eg aerospace (space would have a lower complexity, but for the sake of argument). One reason for the complex design of the Phoenux is minimization (case restrictions on the one hand, and general minimization on the other). The designs for the allwinner_a10 hope to use a 2-layer board, of which two PCMCIA-sized boards are needed (one CPU/graphics board, one periphal board with RF chips, USB and so on). See [1], [2] for images. The project certainly looks interesting, but it is not yet in a state where GTA04 was over 2 years ago (remember that during FOSDEM 2010 there was a working prototype of GTA04, already further miniaturized than the design at elinux.org aims for). [1] http://elinux.org/File:A10_eoma_pcmcia_laptop.png [2] http://elinux.org/Embedded_Open_Modular_Architecture/EOMA-68/Tablet I think GTA05 could be done more competitive. PS: I'd like to donate to Kickstarter campaing for making complete GTA05 device under 300 €. Of course we're on the same side: everyone on the list desperately wants an open communications device, preferably with enough toys on it to make it even more fun. I think the goals you set are not realistic; a sub-300€ GTA05-device might bear the name, but not the ideals of an Openmoko device I think. smime.p7s Description: S/MIME cryptographic signature ___ Openmoko community mailing list community@lists.openmoko.org http://lists.openmoko.org/mailman/listinfo/community
Re: Openmoko Community Survey 2011 – Results
Also Raspberry Pi for $25/$35 is too expensive. The Allwinner A10 board with ARM Cortex-A8 and MALI400MP 3D graphics (with Open Source userspace driver) could be manufactured for $15. That is wishful marketing... The $15 is expected (!) @100k units, not at small numbers in the 100 range: http://rhombus-tech.net/allwinner_a10/orders/ Pricing Regarding pricing: the hardware NREs from the factory are $USD 2,000. Therefore, based on the number of committments so far (23 as of 2011Dec12), pricing looks set to be around $100. By the time the number of preorders reaches 30, that will be around $75 (30 reached as of 2011Dec17). The mass-volume (100k units) price will be somewhere around $15: the more committments received, the closer the price will get to that. One expression of interest has been received for 1,000 (stable) units: a pricing evaluation request is outstanding with the factory and will be reported as soon as it is received. Please note: this price excludes a case, power supply, packaging, shipping, tax, customs and import duty. If, we get preorders for 100k GTA04, we can come below 300 EUR. That is no magic and no hidden secret. We could now advertise the GTA04 @ 300 EUR and wait until we have collected enough preorders for that price level :) And, they exclude cost for packaging, shipping, tax, customs. What I also doubt is that they are aware of other hidden costs like handling, warehouse, repairs, tests, CE certificate etc. And, they neglect one major issue: the board design may not work in the first shot. Then, they have to repeat the NRE... Finally, a major difference: the GTA04 design is finished and we know how expensive development is. They are starting based on assumptions. I wish them that they can reach their goals. Conclusion: you can't compare these projects. Nikolaus ___ Openmoko community mailing list community@lists.openmoko.org http://lists.openmoko.org/mailman/listinfo/community
Re: Openmoko Community Survey 2011 – Results
On Monday 16 January 2012 09:31:23 Dr. H. Nikolaus Schaller wrote: Let me describe my first observations from these figures (not deeply elaborated): 1. this result shows that we have a very large bandwidth what we see as an acceptable price. For some of us the current price (which is production cost driven) is ok, while for others it is far too high. 2. I find it interesting that there is no big difference between Q1 and Q2 which indicates that we either buy immediately or are just willing to add 50 EUR to make us unwilling buyers. This appears to be a strong mental level of maximum acceptable price. Or is it just available budget? If we have it we buy immediately, if we don't we can't even buy unwillingly? Or is it driven by the addition of Q2 only after 30 responses on Q1 only? For me GTA04 is a bigger chunk of a smaller toy budget than GTA02 was, plus I needed a new phone then and I don't now. I want a GTA04 but it's hard to justify right now. Making a donation to help keep the project alive would be much easier to justify, but I haven't seen any way to do that. I'd like to give something now so that there's a chance I can still buy an open phone in the future. Having a gold standard for phone openness is important, even if I can't afford one just now. 3. at the current price of the GTA04 group tour (450-500 EUR range) we can expect approx. 30% buyers. This would still mean 6000 of the originally sold GTA02 devices. Hm. We are still far away from this figure with subscriptions. What are the reasons? That's an apples/oranges comparison - eventual sales vs. early adopters. I imagine experience with problems that emerged after launch (buzz, #1024, bass etc.) might put people off buying early, as might the unknown battery life. 4. a final observation is that I have to conclude that some of us have no realistic perception of the market prices. More than 40% would not want to pay more than 200-250 EUR for a complete GTA04 (even with case etc.). This makes me really puzzled as the GTA02 was never sold cheaper than 199 EUR. Isn't getting UMTS, fast 3D graphics any value to the majority of the Openmoko community? The cheapest UMTS Android 2.2 device I can currently get in Germany is at 129 EUR (most likely from some overstock clearance). Has a 320x240 display, no sensors, no free and open software. No hardware description, no schematics. Appears to be crap and much less featured than the GTA04. But the poll result indicates this is the way we should go. Really? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZTE_Blade Consistently cheaper (99UKP/117EUR) than the model you suggest, and significantly higher specification. The bootloader isn't locked, and I think the only binary blob is for hardware accelerated graphics. It was recently superseded by a higher spec version (ZTE Crescent) at the same price, apparently with a similar level of open/closedness - the android mod community is still getting to grips with it. I don't know if anyone's tried building SHR for it, but it's MSM7k family. When GTA02 was released there was nothing like this on the market. If you wanted any degree of openness your choices were very limited and all relatively expensive. GTA04 retains the gold standard of openness, but there is now competition from devices that aren't documented, but where you can build cyanogenmod from a git checkout, for a fraction of the money. For some people that will be all the openness they want, or can afford. I wnder how the community thinks it can be done at such low prices? One answer (that I don't like at all) could be: http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-child-labor-2012-1 So please prove my last observation and conclusion to be wrong. I don't think there's any illusion in the community about how it's done - major economies of scale combined with working practices that wouldn't be allowed in Europe or the US. The recent RaspberryPi manufacturing post has probably been a timely reminder for many. It's ubiquitous and hidden though, so people tend not to think about it, and the price of virtue can come as a bit of a shock. ___ Openmoko community mailing list community@lists.openmoko.org http://lists.openmoko.org/mailman/listinfo/community
Re: Openmoko Community Survey 2011 – Results
Am 16.01.2012 um 18:43 schrieb Al Johnson: On Monday 16 January 2012 09:31:23 Dr. H. Nikolaus Schaller wrote: Let me describe my first observations from these figures (not deeply elaborated): 1. this result shows that we have a very large bandwidth what we see as an acceptable price. For some of us the current price (which is production cost driven) is ok, while for others it is far too high. 2. I find it interesting that there is no big difference between Q1 and Q2 which indicates that we either buy immediately or are just willing to add 50 EUR to make us unwilling buyers. This appears to be a strong mental level of maximum acceptable price. Or is it just available budget? If we have it we buy immediately, if we don't we can't even buy unwillingly? Or is it driven by the addition of Q2 only after 30 responses on Q1 only? For me GTA04 is a bigger chunk of a smaller toy budget than GTA02 was, plus I needed a new phone then and I don't now. I want a GTA04 but it's hard to justify right now. Making a donation to help keep the project alive would be much easier to justify, but I haven't seen any way to do that. I'd like to Well, there is a donation option as the first product variant: http://www.handheld-linux.com/wiki.php?page=GTA04 give something now so that there's a chance I can still buy an open phone in the future. Having a gold standard for phone openness is important, even if I can't afford one just now. If there are many more who have the same problem, we could think of a payment plan: pay let's say 200 EUR and we can buy in big batches the most critical parts (CPU, Memory, UMTS module) where every ordered chip counts to bring down the price for everyone. Pay another 150 EUR and we will buy the remaining ones and passive components. Pay the final 150 EUR and we will build the GTA04 board from the components that are already in stock. This can probably been done in batches of 50 units. Although everthing should be done within a small number of months since soldering components is best done when they are fresh. Then it is not just a donation, but you also have a chance to finally get an upgrade. Just an idea. I don't know if the logistics is as easy as I think... ___ Openmoko community mailing list community@lists.openmoko.org http://lists.openmoko.org/mailman/listinfo/community
Re: Openmoko Community Survey 2011 – Results
On 01/16/2012 09:31 AM, Dr. H. Nikolaus Schaller wrote: 3. at the current price of the GTA04 group tour (450-500 EUR range) we can expect approx. 30% buyers. This would still mean 6000 of the originally sold GTA02 devices. Hm. We are still far away from this figure with subscriptions. What are the reasons? For reasons already pointed out by others, the real market might be the subscribers of this same list. Then price becomes the limitation. As others, I'm also willing to contribute with a donation (100€) or high risk small investment, but not the current price. 4. a final observation is that I have to conclude that some of us have no realistic perception of the market prices. More than 40% would not want to pay more than 200-250 EUR for a complete GTA04 (even with case etc.). This makes me really puzzled as the GTA02 was never sold cheaper than 199 EUR. Isn't getting UMTS, fast 3D graphics any value to the majority of the Openmoko community? High end phones cost around 500€ and the OpenMoko experience has taught us that open comes by with compromising the specs. I'm not sure the GTA04 has been shown (marketed) as spec competitive with high end phones of 500€. The cheapest UMTS Android 2.2 device I can currently get in Germany is at 129 EUR (most likely from some overstock clearance). Has a 320x240 display, no sensors, no free and open software. No hardware description, no schematics. Appears to be crap and much less featured than the GTA04. But the poll result indicates this is the way we should go. Really? I wnder how the community thinks it can be done at such low prices? I think the situation has changed a lot since the initial introduction of the OpenMoko, in particular with the introduction of Android. At this pace, how much will it take for an Android phone manufacturer to release a fully open phone? And more importantly, right now what are the advantages of openness of the GTA04? Why exactly is it more free? What is its competitive advantage(s)? Again, I have not seen this in a big billboard, and I admit I have not done the research myself. Fernando ___ Openmoko community mailing list community@lists.openmoko.org http://lists.openmoko.org/mailman/listinfo/community
