I must agree with Josh, though Mike I did find your fresh perspective and information very insightful. As I see it while the aquisition of Macromedia by Adobe and the video share market does bode well for the flash format I still see it as a niche tool which will have to fight deperately to move beyond the web as a platform or even to keep up with the web platform. Here are three specific points.
1) It's closed... it's got issues with accessibility and interoperability... this to both developers (programmers and media makers) and end users. if Macromedia opened up the file format and made a standard out of it and let others compete on that platform... and develop to it just as long as they supported macromedias spec... even if they didn't allow others to extend the specification I think it would be a very powerful move... that MIGHT get it included in Quicktime and other media players... AND especially in devices like Treo's, handhelds, Tivo's, the PSP, iPods and other future devices. Flash is the ONLY video player I know in fact that supports it... and I'm not just talking video RSS aggregator either... I mean ANY player. Not even VLC or Mplayer support it I believe... and they're becoming the stock and standard video players... though still work in progress they support everything. In fact I think Flash is dying to bust out because there is so much great flash specific content... stuff with light interactivity and especially animation work. There's no denying it's a great format, it's just not accessible and interoperable. Adobe for example has become the defacto standard with PDF... and that's because they opened it up... now other people can develop to it and publish to it... I see Macromedia Flash in very much a similar role. They need to focus more on making Flash accessible and interoperable. 2) It's not for video... it is infact not a video tool... it is a niche tool... it doesn't function like video, it doesn't play like video... it doesn't play back in most video playback tools... FlASH IS A NICHE TOOL... it's carved out quite a niche for itself but it's made it's bed and now it has to lye in it. As mentioned above it's niche is interactivity and animation. That said I think it's the preferred format of choice for viral media makers... i.e. jibjab... because it is so portable, light and quick to load... It's definitely the most portable of all media formats... accept for beyond the web browser... to date not a single non web browser device supports it... no portable video players, no cell phones... nada. In order to get out of this niche they're going to have to bust a cap in point number one.... this will over time change point number two when it's becomes more standard in video playback tools and they learn to make it function more like video... from allowing outside standardized playback control to supporting ID3 meta info. 3) DRM... it employs some sort of soft fucked up DRM... it pisses me off and it's enough to be a pain in the ass... but it has no hard core DRM aimed at Hollywood... Now I say this hating DRM... because DROM is law encoded through technology and inaccessible to basic HUMANS... and laws must remain accessible to humans in order for the planet to remain humane and fair (as in fair use that thing that people keep forgetting about).... and I'm not just talking about fair use and playback for the end user... I also mean keeping markets and distribution open and accessible too... i.e. we should ALL have the same rights under the law... i.e. clearly apple's Fairplay makes law a commodity...if DRM should become the standard... than to the extent it becomes a standard it becomes tyranical, and anti-competitive... even racketeering... clearly it's pay up or you'll get no access to apple's marketplace... this will only get worse in the future But enough of my viewpoints on DRM... The point is macromedia needs to make some real policy on DRM to attract hollywood... My suggestion would be to simultaneously make the format more open and more closed... like apple's iPod... make a default publishing state that allows for editing, format shifting, sharing... and make one or two DRM states for increasing levels of evilness so so called big media or "hollywood" will be encouraged to use the platform. Let the DRM compete on the same platform with free and open as Apple is doing... clearly free and open content is winning... just look at podcasting as a business vs. Apple's music sales... I'll bet you a beer there's more revenue in podcasting and vlogging by the end of 2006 than there is in apple music sales... Yes, I'm saying little media is going to kick big media's ass on the ipod platform... crazy I know, but not only do open markets encourage innovation... but open markets distribute wealth far more equitably too... Big grin... :) It's the same story with Open Source vs. Microsoft... eventually open source will win because it's already offering a lot more profit to a lot more people.... So goes apples music store... their store will be one day be a wart on the back of open media... if they don't open it up themselves or simply kill it... Yes... I'm evil.... it may take a decade even but you'll see I'm right. :) Well those are my three strategic issues with Flash... interoperability/ accessibility / open standards, that it's increasingly a niche tool, and that they don't have a DRM strategy... something Apple, Real Media, Microsoft and other have had for a hell of a long time. That said... if they would just listen to me some bumbling idiot down here in the trenches they could do a 180 on these points REAL quick and be back in the game overnight... they are after all... as you pointed out not doing to bad with momentum, even if they do have 20% of the market... but I doubt they do... there's an awfully lot of flash out there and 95% of it is widgets and stuff that while cool have nothing to do with video as we're speaking about it here. Harsh but true. I will say ONE last thing... it's aim at complete ubiquity on the web platform may save Flash from complete obscurity... because it's so much a part of the web... I think it may... and there will be problems with this... but it may slowly be supported anywhere the web is supported... such as cell phone and pda's and set top boxes... but that's not the "video web" which is different... that's the full web... which for example will I think ultimately come after the "IPTV on cell phone" dies... and cell carriers decide people don't want video on cellphone... go back to rething their strategy... provide REAL and OPEN and INTEROPERABLE web access and eventually video gets built back to these cellular devices and succeeds because the platform is open and innovation happens. Yes, I've talked to quite a few people about so called TV and cell phone and we all agree, especially based on insights into europe and japan that it will fail to live up to hype because it's closed and the innovation necissary will fail to happen... and in two years time we'll be back to carriers just trying to provide accessible web access for thing like basic web browsing services... then... maybee... they'll try video again but by leaving it open to anyone.... We call this "doing the AOL"... that... or one carrier will snap... in a brilliant epiphany allow anyone on the web to make video or any services over their network and get the fuck out of the way and just allow innovation to happen and enjoy charging for the bandwidth... which will cause HUGE innovation... proliferation of rich media over cell phones.... btw... this will probably happen with podcasting before video. Peace! -Mike On Dec 20, 2005, at 2:15 PM, Joshua Kinberg wrote: FireAnt on Mac handles Flash video if you syndicate the FLV file via RSS enclosures. Not currently available in the Windows version of FireAnt, but its on our roadmap. I would anticipate WMV gaining more traction in the download/sync-to-device market for major media outlets due to Windows DRM. Apple does not share their DRM with others, so if you want to sell DRM protected content for the iPod you must go through the iTunes Store... this is why you are seeing MSM content owners line up for entrance to iTunes Store. But, there are other MSM content owners seeking more flexibility than what is offered by Apple. They will have to go for WMV with Windows DRM if that's the case... though I'm not sure I'd really call that flexible either. I don't see Flash video as a solution for this scenario yet, though it is a decent solution if you expect all your viewers to watch the content online embedded in a webpage. -Josh On 12/20/05, Mike Lanza <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > Currently, it is not possible to play flv's (Flash video files) on > an iPod. > > However, Flash video is taking off like a rocket. Most of the > major new big > media sites are using it (e.g. video.google.com, espn.go.com, > labs.reuters.com/video, www.brightcove.com, etc.). Most of these > have come > up in the last three months. For instance, Google just changed to > Flash > video less than two months ago. Someone I trust told me that a > little over > a year ago, Flash video accounted for 1% of all web video, but now, > it's at > about 20%. > > In addition, the acquisition of Macromedia by Adobe, completed a > few weeks > ago, bodes very well for Flash video. Adobe has a heck of a lot > more muscle > than Macromedia had. > > So, with Adobe, Google, ESPN, Reuters, and others all pushing Flash > video > now, I'd say that there's an awful lot of momentum behind it. I'm > sure that > more and more sites will adopt it, but it will be interesting to > see if > Apple is persuaded to adopt it for the iPod. It certainly does > make sense > because of its ubiquity on Mac and Windows (why keep fighting so > hard to get > QuickTime players on Windows?) and because of its fabulous > environment for > video-based application development. > > I videoblog for the Detroit News political blog - > http://spartanedge.com/blogs/detroitnews/index.html - > > But because I use Flash, it seems that I can't get on on aggregators. > Is that still true? Seems off to me because I really think Flash is > a cool way to offer vid. > > Another concern - I am not sure how to offer up video for the iPod -- > I squeezed my video through Sorenson into a "small" MPEG-4 And then > I offer a link that allows people to download it. But I do not have > an iPod and wondered if it works OK. I have no way to check. > > > I also wondered how many of you also offer an MP3 podcast of your > videoblog. I try to do that but don't know if it works well. > > Thanks - > > Bonnie B > > > > > > > ------------------------------------------------- > > Mike Lanza > > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > http://family.lanza.net > > 415-641-1985 > > ------------------------------------------------- > > > > ________________________________ > YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS > > > Visit your group "videoblogging" on the web. > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service. > > ________________________________ > Yahoo! Groups Links Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/videoblogging/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
