Oh and in case anyone cares about "bubbles" like the DotCon era and what many now predict in the LLM era (not just demand for LLMs but demand side collapse due to students saddled with mortgage sized debts they can't escape in bankruptcy "enjoying the benefits of abundance"):
Jay Forrester: The Growth and Collapse of Markets https://youtu.be/Hydooi-OgP4 That might well be called "The Growth and Collapse of Civilizations" when you start talking about fatted mesopredators thinking they can use the government as apex predator protector when that government violates the consent of a supermajority of the governed regarding immigration policy for at least 70 years solid. There are a lot of guys with elite military backgrounds who are, as our "betters" like to say it "discontent". Some of them also have solid background in the information industry: https://substack.com/home/post/p-204284247 On Tue, Jun 30, 2026 at 9:26 AM James Bowery <[email protected]> wrote: > The second lecture by Jay W. Forrester: "Applications of System Dynamics" > https://youtu.be/G1mVnqdlpvo > > It's worth mentioning that I had an ongoing argument about the ALgorithmic > Information Criterion for macrosocial model selection with none other than > the guy who financed the second neural network summer (1980s). Hinton > called him "The Mystery Man". Anyway, Carter needed someone to head data > science for the new Department of Energy, and Charlie got the job. Charlie > supported Werbos (as well as Hinton) because Werbos was developing > recurrent neural networks -- which is the only way to derive adaptive > system dynamics from neural networks. Werbos was another guy Charlie > supported precisely because Werbos was developing neural system dynamics -- > aka recurrent neural networks. You see when you are in charge of trying to > make sense of the energy economy of the largest economy in the world, you > don't have the luxury of pretending that statistics and dynamics are the > same thing. That's for social scientists who are, except maybe for the > guys doing "many analysts, one dataset" work, exactly the kind of people > Forrester describes in his lectures that destroy companies -- except that > social scientists do it on civilizational scales with their statistical > "Information Criteria For Model Selection". > > So getting back to my argument with Charlie who I met in 1994 (not then > knowing his background with neural nets!): > > It wasn't until the first SINDy paper that I was able to convince him that > maybe the ALIC was worth a look! > > Unfortunately, this was right at the start of the political schism over > Trump. > > Oh, by the way, we struck up this argument when both of us ended up being > essentially discarded by the information industry and found ourselves > living in adjacent counties in southwest Iowa. > > Sheer coincidence, eh? > > So simulation winking there, eh? > > On Mon, Jun 29, 2026 at 12:58 PM James Bowery <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Jay W. Forrester "The Common Foundation Underlying Physical and Social >> Systems" >> https://youtu.be/ddmygPTRjc0?t=552 >> >> That is the guy who motivated me to write Spasim <http://spasim.org/>. >> >> Subsequent to his "World Model" (no, not the AI morons' notion of "World >> Model") I was the first guy to respond to it with a Kardashev II scenario >> (in Spasim's 1974 3D multiplayer game's macrosocial dynamical world >> simulation incorporating non-terrestrial "anti-entropyp"). >> >> The next guy was J. Peter Vajk January 1, 1978 with his book "Doomsday >> Has Been Cancelled >> <https://www.amazon.com/Doomsday-been-cancelled-Peter-Vajk/dp/0915238241> >> ". >> >> A decade later, I ended up at Science Applications Inc, occupying an >> office (Roselle St in La Jolla) that kept receiving mail addressed to >> Vajk. >> >> Sheer coincidence, eh? >> >> No simulation winking going on there, eh? >> >> Gerard O'Neill beat us both by "asking the right question": "Is the >> surface of a planet really the right place for an expanding technological >> civilization?" -- and his book "The High Frontier >> <https://archive.org/details/highfrontierhuma0000onei_y9i8>" beat Vajk's >> by a year. Although his response included serious engineering >> calculations, it did not directly incorporate a system dynamics simulation >> of space resources. >> >> That's why, in 1981, when AT&T and the largest newspaper chain hired me >> to architect a private sector consumer computer networking service, I >> became O'Neill's "Local Support Team Leader" in Miami. In 1982, the >> valedictorian speech at Miami High School was on O'Neill's vision for >> Kardashev II. >> >> You might be interested in looking up who gave that speech. >> >> Sheer coincidence, eh? >> >> No simulation winking going on there, eh? >> >> This is all by way of saying that the longer the "techno-optimists" >> ignore my call for a Hutter-like Prize for the lossless compression of a >> wide range of longitudinal macrosocial measures... >> >> https://github.com/jabowery/HumesGuillotine >> >> ...the more likely they are to smell like fat and happy mesopredators by >> apex predators. >> >> An apex predator could drive a wedge between the entrepreneur >> mesopredators and rentier mesopredators by unifying Robin Hood with Tax >> Farming: >> >> Collecting from the rentier mesopredators to recompense the entrepreneur >> mesopredators – keeping a fee for the service provided to the entrepreneur >> mesopredators. >> >> The accounting wouldn’t have to be exact to be effective. The IRS doesn’t >> care about being exact – otherwise it wouldn’t treat individuals during tax >> audits as though they had the resources of major corporations to keep track >> of every last dime spent in every category demanded by the tax code. This >> has only the appearance of exactitude when in reality it is a massive bias >> against individuals and on behalf of the government which demands that you >> prove yourself innocent of charges. >> >> So the apex predator goes after *the time integral* of the largest real >> estate holdings (quite convenient as spoils for young men that can’t >> attract a mate to sire the next generation) and pays Elon Musk what he >> otherwise would have had if my 1992 reform had been passed. >> >> >> https://forum.policiesforpeople.com/t/a-net-asset-tax-based-on-the-net-present-value-calculation-and-market-democracy/26153 >> >> Oh... did I say something about Trump? >> >> You didn't watch the video I linked, did you? >> ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T37f3215671321e25-M802a1f0b4dfd757a500c3c8f Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
