My point was that once we have AGI, we will have this capability, not that we already do. You are assuming no software, or possibly existing software, and trying to reason about the current state of affairs, but I'm talking hypothetically. Once we've created the software, the cost of training drops to near zero (only the time it takes to train the robot once) rather than being the cost of writing the code from scratch for each task, which would be extravagant each time. So it seems clear that software that learns by example is the way to go, rather than hand-coding each possible task.
On Mon, Jan 7, 2013 at 5:26 PM, Matt Mahoney <mattmahone...@gmail.com>wrote: > On Mon, Jan 7, 2013 at 4:25 PM, Aaron Hosford <hosfor...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > > Reality is the best source to consult about reality. Why write a book > about how to clean a house if your audience can just watch someone doing > it, and ask appropriate questions when it gets stumped? And once a robot > has learned a task, the information can be copied without further human > demonstration. So maybe "programming" will eventually come to mean > "demonstrating a task for a robot" and cease having anything to do with > writing code. > > What is your estimate of the cost of training a robot to clean houses? > Assume you have enough computing power (say, 10 petaflops and 1 > petabyte), but no software. Or maybe you can name existing software > that might be useful. > > In order for a robot to watch someone clean, it first has to be > programmed to see. Humans learn to see after training on about 1 > petabyte of high resolution video. Assume you can download all of > Youtube, although this might not be all you need and it will take a > lot of effort just to discover this fact. In order for a robot to ask > questions and understand the answers, it must also have a language > model grounded in sensory experience and action. (Watson was a $30 > million effort and was not grounded). You also have to add hearing, > speech recognition, and motor control. It takes a baby a year to learn > to walk. How long will it take to train a robot? > > I assume that knowledge can be copied to identical robots. There will > be some training cost paid to human teachers for any job that is even > slightly different. How much will it cost to train robots to do all > the work that humans do? > > We can already train robots to perform repetitive motions by guiding > its manipulator. This isn't the same thing as a human picking up an > object, guided by vision and tactile feedback. That is still a mostly > unsolved problem. > > > -- > -- Matt Mahoney, mattmahone...@gmail.com > > > ------------------------------------------- > AGI > Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now > RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/23050605-2da819ff > Modify Your Subscription: > https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com > ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
