Ben, you are absolutely correct. It was my
intention to exaggerate the situation a bit without actually crossing the
line. But I don't think it is much of an exaggeration to say that a 'baby'
Novamente even with limited hardware and speed is a tremendous event in the
history of life on Earth. A phase change starts with one molecule.
As computers are becoming more powerful and nanotech capabilities reach closer
to the ultimate goal of molecular positional assembly the world will
cross a threshold similar to supercooled water where one triggering event
will set off a chain reaction causing a phase change to ice throughout the
entire mass. Okay, I'm exaggerating again, but not much. The money
men know it is coming. But they have been burned so many times before in
the A.I. category that they are not willing to touch the stove again, unless
someone can show them something that works. It doesn't have to be a
finished product, just something that demonstrates a new capability. Your
'baby' Novamente or Peter's proof-of-concept example or James Rogers'
who-knows-super-secret-whatits will trigger a phase change in funding for
AGI. The practical applications are unlimited. The profit potential
is unlimited. That's why the money men threw away so much twenty years ago
on projects that didn't have a ghost of a chance and got burned. I'm not
saying that your 'baby' Novemente will change the whole world overnight all by
itself. But any working example of AGI, no matter how limited, will
trigger a complicated chain reaction in the economy and mindset of the
world. The initial example, whatever it is, may turn out to be a
flawed design of limited usefulness (I wouldn't want to see scaled-up jumbo
'Wright Flyers' populating airport terminals) but it will not matter. Just
look at the funding that GOOGLE has attracted with some cleverly written but
dumb (non-AGI) rules.
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