On 10 Feb 05 Steve Reed said: > In 2014, according to trend, the semiconductor manufacturers may reach > the 16 nanometer lithography node, with 32 CPU cores per chip, perhaps > 150+ times more capable than today's x86 chip.
I raised this issue with a colleague who said that he wondered whether this extrapolation would work because of the dynamics of economic cost. He argued that CPUs have been getting more expensive in absolute terms (not relative to performance) as their capacity has increased and he thought that this trend of CPU price increases would continue. He said he thought that the reasons that computers have been getting cheaper as whole systems has come close to running its course leaving the rising price of the CPUs as the dominant trend. He therefore thought that Moore's Law might run out of puff - not because of technology limits but because of cost escalations. Since I had no idea whether he was right (my subjective impression had been that the long run trajectory for the price of computers was a long run decline) I thought I should ask whether anyone has a view on my colleague's argument. Cheers, Philip ------- To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your subscription, please go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/[EMAIL PROTECTED]
