Some things I've learned the hard-way about AGI so far:
(1) Intuition is useless. Hard empirical data combined with hard math are the only route to truth. Public speculation about anything going beyond hard data is worse than useless.
(2) Most of philosophy is gibberish.
(3) Obsessing about the timing and effects of a possible Singularity falls into categories (1) and (2). Worse than useless and a constant neagative distraction. No one can possibly know what the real effects of an AGI would be (beyond some very general parameters) nor can any one really know when or if a Singularity will in fact occur. It's not science so forget it. Count yourselves lucky if a Singularity occurs sometime within your remaining lifetimes (
i.e within the next 0-40 years) and save any further speculation for that sci-fi novel you always intended to write but never got around to.
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P.S I'm semi-retired from the lists but YOU GUYS HAVEN'T GOTTEN RID OF ME. I'm still 'out there' in the world some-where. I could be anywhere. I could have hidden servers in the North pole. I could be at Stanford. I could be in New Zealand. I'm just waiting to strike.... and unleash my own 'stewardship' of the Earth. Remember guys... Geddes is still out there...somewhere ;)
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