Yes, then we disagree. I'm convinced that in hindsight, AGI will turn out to be simpler than we think now (all of us). Even without dedicated AGI work, many sub-problems of AGI will be solved in the normal course of development.
We will have much better common-knowledge databases to work with, and many more practical examples of powerful and useful narrow AI applications (more clearly identifying their limitations). Putting the remaining pieces together will become much easier. (Even ignoring our own project) I predict this will happen way before 2030. Peter -----Original Message----- From: Benjamin Goertzel [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Sunday, January 21, 2007 8:57 AM To: agi@v2.listbox.com Subject: Re: [agi] (video)The Future of Cognitive Computing Peter wrote: > > Ben, your comment seems to reflect your frustration at lack of funding > > rather than a realistic assessment of the situation. Even if no *dedicated* > > AGI engineering project is first to achieve AGI, people in the software/AI > > community will "stumble on" a solution long before reverse engineering > > becomes feasible. Don't you agree? Actually, I don't quite agree with your penultimate sentence... I don't think that people in the software/AI community are likely to "stumble on" a solution to AGI in the next few decades.... Definitely not before the 2030-or-so time-point that Kurzweil speculates for the human-brain-emulation approach. Narrow-AI and AGI are pretty different. If we have to rely on the narrow-AI folks -- even smart ones like the Google folks -- to get us to AGI, then we're in pretty bad luck, and the brain-emulators may win the race... But my projection is that explicit AGI research is going to zoom to prominence vividly and excitingly sometime in the first half of the next decade. Of course, what triggers this may be when word of our amazing AGI successes with Novamente ... or yours with A2I2 ... begin to leak out ;-) .... [Not that we have had amazing AGI successes yet with Novamente, except on the theory-and-design level -- we've had some fun small-scale practical successes, but our practical work is still at the level of a very sophisticated cognitive-mechanism-toolkit being used to drive a pretty primitive baby-AI -- but I'm projecting into the future...!]. Then we will see just how fast the takeoff is, and how big is the vaunted first-mover advantage after all ;=) ben ----- This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=303 ----- This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=303
