Actually, b and N are parameters. However you set them, you can get
an answer in the form of an [L,U] interval. Theoretically.
In a practical AGi system, in most cases you need to fix b and N and
do probabilistic inference in this context, due to memory and
processing time restrictions.
ben
On Feb 3, 2007, at 12:18 PM, gts wrote:
On Fri, 02 Feb 2007 22:01:34 -0500, Ben Goertzel <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
wrote:
In Novamente, we use entities called "indefinite probabilities",
which are described in a paper to appear in the AGIRI Workshop
Proceedings later this year...
Roughly speaking an indefinite probability is a quadruple
(L,U,b,N) with interpretation
"The probability is b that after I make N more observations, my
estimated mean for the probability distribution attached to
statement S will be in the interval (L,U)"
Where statement S might be some general hypothesis, e.g., "All
ravens are black", is that right? And then b increases as N
increases -- as Novamente sees more black ravens. Yes? Does the
confidence interval also change?
-gts
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