Dennis Gorelik wrote:
Richard,
specific technical analysis of the AGI problem that I have made
indicates that nothing like a 'prototype' is even possible until
after a massive amount of up-front effort.
I probably misunderstand you first time.
I thought you meant that this massive amount of up-front efforts must
be made in single project.
But you probably don't mean that, right?
I agree that there is massive amount of up-front effort required for
delivering AGI.
But this amount can be split into separate pieces.
All these pieces can be done in separate projects (weak AI projects).
Every such project can have its own business sense and would be able
to pay for themselves. Good example of such weak AI project would be
Google.
That's why I claim that huge up-front investment can be avoided, even
though there is massive amount of up-front efforts.
Do you agree?
Not quite. I had something very specific in mind when I said that,
because I was meaning that in a "complex systems" AGI project, there is
a need to do a massive, parallel search of a space of algorithms. This
is what you might call a "data collection" phase. It is because of the
need for this data collection (*before* a prototype can be built).
It could be done by many groups working in parallel, but that would
still have to be coordinated (not separate companies all trying to
develop separate projects).
So, alas, it really would need massive effort in one place.
Billions of dollars would be exactly what I need: I have a need for a
large bank of parallelized exploration machines, and I have a need for
large numbers of research assistants to undertake specific tasks.
That's what you need, but would that guarantee AGI delivery?
Nobody can ever guarantee such a thing. But on the other hand, I see in
my plan a more systematic, structured and predictable plan to reach AGI
than any other approach that I am aware of. I think it is as near to
"guaranteed" as it is possible to get because it reduces the unknowns to
a set of structured attacks.
Richard Loosemore
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