I am trying to recover an old GMail account right now, and I agree. On 9/23/08, Matt Mahoney <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > --- On Mon, 9/22/08, Steve Richfield <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > >>My proposal: Much like the "College of Science" at nearly all univesities >> was subsequently chopped up into freestanding departments like Physics, >> Chemistry, Biology, etc., so now CS departments need to be chopped up, at >> minimum to separate the small minds from the real advances. The Department >> of Computational Intelligence needs to be completely separate from the >> Department of Information Technology (that the present CS department >> chairman can head), the Department of Predictive Computation, etc. Only >> after this happens can ANY money be productively spent in an educational >> research environment. > > Your hypothesis that there is some great undiscovered truth that will solve > AGI is speculation. Even if some great discovery is made, on the order of > the discovery of the principles of electricity, flight, or computation, > history shows that technological progress still consists of lots of > incremental improvements over many years. This is my basis for the cost > estimate of AGI. We can wait for improvements or spend more money now. The > optimal balance is a payoff at market interest rates on a global economy, > which is on the order of $1 quadrillion. > > As for software costs, I am assuming that we transfer our knowledge in the > most efficient way, mostly through natural language and unobtrusively > through pervasive surveillance of our normal activities. We have about 10^10 > human brains with 10^9 bits of knowledge each, of which I assume 90% to 99% > is not unique to any single human. This leaves 10^17 to 10^18 bits. > Currently, about 10^14 or 10^15 bits is on the internet in readily > accessible form (indexed by the major search engines) and doubling every > year or two. > > I defined a rather arbitrary threshold, but keep in mind that progress is > incremental. We observe the internet getting gradually smarter. Compare > Google today with Google 5 years ago. It is better at understanding simple > natural language queries, and now gives you maps and images in addition to > increasingly relevant links from a larger web. > > AGI also makes it easier to collect the knowledge it needs to improve. > Surveillance is becoming more pervasive because it is cheap and we demand > it. In 10-20 years, if I search for "where was Steve Richfield last > Saturday", I will get a map with links to video from hundreds of public > cameras indexed by facial recognition software and license plate readers, > links to all your phone calls, emails, text messages, and recorded face to > face conversations with a synopsis of the conversation subject extracted > from your transcribed and indexed speech, instantly sent to anyone who has > an interest in what you are talking about. At the same time, you will be > notified of my query. > > This is what we want. Publishing every detail of your life makes you safer. > Nobody can steal your identity if anyone can retrieve your photo, > fingerprints and DNA to verify who you claim to be. It also puts you in > contact with others who share your interests. It lets advertisers direct to > you only messages that you are really interested in, rather than the spam we > now get. There are clear benefits to phone conversations like: > > Alice: Hi dear. Could you pick up some Chinese on the way home? > Bob: OK, the usual? > Wok-in-the-Box: Your order will be ready in 5 minutes. > > Oh, you could have private conversations if you wanted to, but we really > don't want privacy. If we did, we would be encrypting our email instead of > using public services like Yahoo and Gmail that record everything and use AI > to deliver targeted ads and customized search. Why do you think we are > having this conversation in a public forum? > > -- Matt Mahoney, [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > > ------------------------------------------- > agi > Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now > RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ > Modify Your Subscription: > https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com >
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