Coba terjemahin dah... bacanya cape jadi kalo sambil terjemahin bisa lebih fokus kali...
On Fri, Mar 12, 2010 at 10:38 PM, sidqy suyitno <sidqy_suyi...@yahoo.com>wrote: > d of an Era in Finance > CAMBRIDGE Perubahan tanggal 19 Februari oleh IMF merupakan pertanda berakhirnya era keuangan global. IMF telah mengubah pandangannya tentang pengawasan dan pengontrolan devisa (kapital). Pajak atas devisa masuk bisa membantu dan perlu diperlakukan sebagai langkah kebijakan yang 'legitimate'. > But what happened on February 19 can safely be > called the end of an era in global finance. > On that day, the International Monetary Fund published a policy note that > reversed its long-held position on capital controls. Taxes and other > restrictions on capital inflows, the IMFs economists wrote, can be > helpful, > and they constitute a legitimate part of policymakers toolkit. > Posisi baru ini jelas berbeda dengan pendapat IMF sebelumnya yang menentang kontrol devisa yang dilakukan oleh Brazil. Rediscovering the common sense that had strangely eluded the Fund for two > decades, the report noted: logic suggests that appropriately designed > controls > on capital inflows could usefully complement other policies. As late as > November of last year, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn had > thrown cold water on Brazils efforts to stem inflows of speculative hot > money, and said that he would not recommend such controls as a standard > prescription. > > So Februarys policy note is a stunning reversal as close as an > institution can come to recanting without saying, Sorry, we messed up. > But it > parallels a general shift in economists opinion. It is telling, for > example, > that Simon Johnson, the IMFs chief economist during 2007-2008, has turned > into one of the most ardent supporters of strict controls on domestic and > international finance. > Kebijakan IMF ini memberi kejelasan bahwa lalulintas uang antar negara bukan cuma bisa dijalankan dan patut dipertimbangkan (desirable), tapi juga efektif. Pendapat ini penting sebab dasar pendapat IMF sebelumnya adalah 'langkah kontrol kapital tidak akan bisa berjalan lama. Pelaku pasar akan selalu mencari celah dalam kebijakannya yang akhirnya mengakibatkan kebijakan tersebut mandul. > The IMFs policy note makes clear that controls on cross-border financial > flows can be not only desirable, but also effective. This is important, > because > the traditional argument of last resort against capital controls has been > that > they could not be made to stick. Financial markets would always outsmart > the > policymakers. Even if true, evading the controls requires incurring > additional costs to move funds in and out of a country which is precisely > what the controls aim to achieve. Otherwise, why would investors and > speculators cry bloody murder whenever capital controls are mentioned as a > possibility? If they really couldnt care less, then they shouldnt care at > all. > IMF mengakui bahwa kontrol devisa dapat mencegah penguatan mata uang yang berlebihan, yang berakibat menurunnya daya saing produksi negara penerima devisa. IMF jua memberi bukti bahwa negara berkembang yang menganut pengawasan devisa yang baik lebih mampu bertahan atas krisis subprime mortgage yang terjadi. IMF masih belum memberikan petunjuk jelas tentang cara atau metode yang mungkin diterapkan dalam melaksanakan kontrol devisa ini. > One justification for capital controls is to prevent inflows of hot money > from boosting the value of the home currency excessively, thereby > undermining competitiveness. Another is to reduce vulnerability to sudden > changes in financial-market sentiment, which can wreak havoc with domestic > growth and employment. To its credit, the IMF not only acknowledges this, > but it also provides evidence that developing countries with capital > controls were hit less badly by the fallout from the sub-prime mortgage > meltdown. > The IMFs change of heart is important, but it needs to be followed by > further action. We currently dont know much about designing > capital-control > regimes. The taboo that has attached to capital controls has discouraged > practical, policy-oriented work that would help governments to manage > capital > flows directly. There is some empirical research on the consequences of > capital > controls in countries such as Chile, Colombia, and Malaysia, > but very little systematic research on the appropriate menu of options. The > IMF > can help to fill the gap. > Emerging markets have resorted to a variety of instruments to limit > private-sector borrowing abroad: taxes, unremunerated reserve requirements, > quantitative restrictions, and verbal persuasion. In view of the > sophisticated > nature of financial markets, the devil is often in the details and what > works in one setting is unlikely to work well in others. > For example, Taiwans > use of administrative measures that rely heavily on close monitoring of > flows > may be inappropriate in settings where bureaucratic capacity is more > limited. > Similarly, Chilean-style unremunerated reserve requirements may be easier > to > evade in countries with extensive trading in sophisticated derivatives. > With the stigma on capital controls gone, the IMF should now get to work on > developing guidelines on what kind of controls work best and under what > circumstances. The IMF provides countries with technical assistance in a > wide > range of areas: monetary policy, bank regulation, and fiscal consolidation. > It > is time to add managing the capital account to this list. > With this battle won, the next worthy goal is a global financial > transaction > tax. Set at a very low level 0.05% is a commonly mentioned rate such a > tax would raise hundreds of billions of dollars for global public goods > while > discouraging short-term speculative activities in financial markets. > Support for a global financial-transaction tax is growing. A group of NGOs > have rechristened it the Robin Hood tax, and have launched a global > campaign > to promote it, complete with a deliciously biting video clip featuring > British > actor Bill Nighy (www.robinhoodtax.org). > Significantly, the European Union has thrown its weight behind the tax and > urged the IMF to pursue it. The only major holdout is the United States, > where Treasury Secretary Tim > Geithner has made his distaste for the proposal clear. > What made finance so lethal in the past was the combination of economists > ideas with the political power of banks. The bad news is that big banks > retain > significant political power. The good news is that the intellectual climate > has > shifted decisively against them. Shorn of support from economists, the > financial industry will have a much harder time preventing the fetish of > free > finance from being tossed into the dustbin of history. > Copyright: Project Syndicate, > 2010. http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rodrik41/English > > ________________________________ > > * Professor of > Political Economy at Harvard Universitys > John F. Kennedy School of Government, is the first recipient of the Social > Science Research Councils Albert O. Hirschman Prize. 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