To add to this discussion, one of Peter MacDonald's students changed MIX to
Rmix using the Free R-package with nlm for the mle optimization. So it is
free(but it is good for Peter if you want to spend some money to buy MIX)
and excellent for mixture population from my view.

As for plateau/kinks/breakpoints, it depends on the proportions of each
subpopulation in the mixture. Furthermore, the goodness-of-fit statistics in
Rmix will give you some directions on how many subpopulations in the
mixture.

Din



-----Original Message-----
From: Isobel Clark [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Tuesday, March 09, 2004 3:34 PM
To: Chaosheng Zhang
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: AI-GEOSTATS: Re: mixtures of populations


AH me, the English language slips away from me again.

I said that the PRESENCE {pardon the capitals, no way
to italicise email} of more than one population is
indicated by the points of inflexion on the
probability plot. Not that these were breakpoints
between populations.

Normal (or lognormal) populations overlap. The break
point in the probability plot allows us to distinguish
between data which are skewed and multiple
populations. Skewed data give curved probability
plots. Mixtures of populations give plots with abrupt
changes in slope. These are very rarely equivalent to
'equal probability' points - that is, statistical
break points between the population. But, they are a
good place to start looking ;-)

Once you have deduced that multiple populations are
present there are lots of things you can do, including
simple stuff like post-plotting an indicator transform
of the data at various threshholds just to see if
there is any spatial pattern obvious to the naked eye.

In many cases, ordinary kriging can proceed even with
a mixture, since it only requires second-order
stationarity not the existance of one single
population.

In 34 years of searching, I have never seen a
probability plot with breakpoint(s) which did not have
a matching multiple population explanation. The number
of times I have argued with a 'customer' about this is
legion. In some cases, we have found more populations
than expected (witness my 1993 IGMC paper). 

In environmental studies, as in many geological
situations, one would normally expect a broad
background population of readings with the 'pollution'
showing as a more cohesive, generally higher valued
overlying one. Where both exist in the same locality,
it is often difficult to separate them in the data set
because you need both to characterise that area. This
is the case where you would co-krige an indicator and
two populations to get one estimate. 

Peter MacDonald's work is pretty definitive in North
America and his MIX program for separating a histogram
out into components has been around for 30 years, to
my knowledge (I met him in 1976 at a Biometrics
Congress!). 

There is a great monograph by Alistair Sinclair called
"Application of Probability Plots in Mineral
Exploration" which costs around $10 from the
Association of Exploration Geochemists and was first
published about 30 years ago. The task of identifying
mineral targets is very like that of identifying
pollution sources or other types of 'secondary'
populations. 

It is much better to identify multiple populations
from other knwledge of the site, but this is not
always possible. If you don't know whether or not you
have a mixture, statistical plots are one way of
checking - and very quick and easy to produce
nowadays.  I am open to any other suggestions on how
to identify multiple populations when all you have is
the sample data. 

Isobel Clark
http://uk.geocities.com/drisobelclark


        
        
                
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