Hello Tom,
the program WinAOS gives you a quick overview of the satellite passes in
the near future.
The program is not designed for long term calculations. It doesn't use
the SGP4/SDP4 model as SatPC32 and WinListen do but uses rather simple
calculation routines. Therefore use WinListen or the "Preview" function
of SatPC32 for more precise calculations.
73s, Erich, DK1TB
Am 02.06.2014 00:10, schrieb Thomas Doyle:
Some of you may remember the Chicken Little Contest run by Alan a while
back.
I have taken another look at decay using the XATCOBEO satellite as an
example.
My first try at a program calculated the decay in early June 2014.
I am all but positive this is several weeks too soon.
On the other end of the spectrum SatPC32/WinAOS shows it up and running
well into 2084.
I am as positive as I can be that this is many decades too late.
Orbitron shows it still running on Sept 8 2014 but at an altitude of only
109km.
I believe this is a bit late as 160km is usually considered to be the point
of no return.
Calsky predicts decay on 14 August 2014 with a +/- of 15 days
Smart guy to hedge his bets with the +/- range.
DK3WN predicts decay on 31 July 2014
This falls into the +/- range of Calsky and since our own N8MH is an editor
on this site it is probably the closest.
With LEO satellites rapidly becoming as common as iPads they provide
interesting subjects for decay predictions
and possible Chicken Little contests.
Is there any formal definition/announcement of the actual decay or
are satellites like old soldiers and just fade away ?
73 W9KE Tom Doyle
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