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http://www.smh.com.au/news/0107/31/world/world2.html

Sydney Morning Herald
July 31, 2001 


Don't mention the sleeping giant 
There are deep misgivings in Australian defence
circles about an Asian NATO, writes Hamish McDonald. 


After the United States Secretary of State, Colin
Powell, yesterday revealed the first moves to
co-ordinate America's key military alliances in Asia,
the Foreign Minister, Alexander Downer, quickly jumped
in to warn against any "hares" rushing away about a
new NATO to contain China.

He has about as much hope of preventing that as Alice
in Wonderland did of detaining the White Rabbit on his
way to a most important date.

Both Powell and Downer can stress as much as they like
that there is no proposal for a new organisation, just
"informal dialogue", but clearly they want
significantly more than the present level of
interaction between American, Japanese, South Korean
and Australian defence officials.

Downer has already raised it with the Japanese Foreign
Minister, Makiko Tanaka, and presumably not been
knocked back.

The Chinese reaction is predictable but the idea has
already caused deep misgivings in Australian defence
policy circles.

When last year the Harvard University strategic
scholar Robert Blackwill proposed the linkages in a
new study, America's Asian Alliances, his Australian
co-editor, the Australian National University's Paul
Dibb, appended a note of disagreement.

Blackwill, now Bush's new Ambassador to India, thought
it "prudent for the four allies to begin now to build
enhanced patterns of co-operation and co-ordination,
lest they be forced to do so in the midst of a
crisis". The aims: to encourage a great defence role
for Japan, engage North Korea but "prepare for the
worst", and harmonise policies on China.

Australia should steadily raise defence spending "to
give itself the sort of military and analytical
capacities necessary to sustain its relationship with
Washington" and "insert itself" into US policy-making
as Britain does.

Dibb, a former deputy head of the Defence Department,
strongly disagreed. It was unrealistic to expect Tokyo
and Seoul to commit in advance to questions like
Taiwan's defence. It would distort Australia's defence
structure towards high-level warfare in north-east
Asia and signal a "harsh unilateralist stance" towards
China.

None of these reasons has diminished, and the new
coolness between Seoul and Tokyo over World War II
accountability could be added.

The joint statement from yesterday's AUSMIN talks
indicated strong US pressure for Australia to keep up
"interoperability" with US forces. There will be a new
"top-down" study ready for next year's meeting.

The US alliance offers a dazzling array of technology
and intelligence, but the flipside is less freedom to
disengage from the American defence industry and
closer alignment with a view of a hostile China that
could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.




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