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ANALYSIS-Russia faces dilemma as U.S. girds forces By Richard Balmforth MOSCOW, Sept 17 (Reuters) - A U.S. call on its friends to stand up and be counted as it girds itself for military action over last week's terror attacks has confronted Russia with an awkward policy choice. How can it deliver on pledges to join a global fight against terrorism -- but stay out of U.S. military operations in Afghanistan that will harm its influence in the region? Can Russia afford to be neutral in any U.S.-led action near its region of strategic interest while preserving its big-power image in former Soviet territory? And -- crucially for President Vladimir Putin -- can he steer a middle course without endangering an embryonic relationship with the administration of George W. Bush? "Russia at the moment is trying to preserve neutrality. But the war will be carried out according to the principle 'He who is not with us, is against us,"' the newspaper Vedomosti wrote on Monday, zeroing in on Putin's quandary. Drawing up a plus and minus sheet, Vedomosti said a consequence of staying out of a western coalition of action would be foreign policy isolation for Russia in the West. CONFLICTING SIGNALS FROM PUTIN Putin was one of the first world leaders to offer condolences to the United States following the September 11 attacks. The tragedy, he said, underscored Russian proposals for a global war to defeat "the plague" of terrorism. The head of Russia's SVR foreign intelligence service, taking the cue, said his service was working closely with agencies in the United States, Europe and the Middle East to prevent new terror acts. The U.S. focus on Taliban-ruled Afghanistan as one of the main springs of international terrorism identified a common enemy. Moscow has long held the same view, seeing the hand of the hardline Muslim Taliban and that of Saudi-born militant Osama bin Laden -- prime suspect in the U.S. terror attacks -- in the separatist rebellion in Chechnya. But as attention swivelled to the ex-Soviet republics of Central Asia as possible launch-pads for U.S. and NATO operations in Afghanistan the Russian position hardened. At stake for Putin here is Moscow's influence in the cluster of former Central Asian states, which belong to the Russian-led Commonwealth of Independent States and which form a vast strategic buffer region along Russia's south-eastern borders. It was left to Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov to quash speculation that Moscow would allow Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, both of which border Afghanistan, to be used as springboards for NATO military operations against the Taliban. "I don't see any basis for even hypothetical assumptions of the possibility of launching any NATO military operations in the territory of Central Asian countries which are members of the CIS," Ivanov told reporters in Armenia last Friday. At first glance, it seems improbable that Tajikistan, whose border security is guaranteed by Russian forces under a government agreement, would strike a deal with Washington and open its territory for logistical support to U.S. forces. The Washington Post reported on Monday that Uzbekistan however was prepared to discuss use of its bases and air space with the United States, but a government spokesman later back-pedalled saying it was too early to say. Putin, facing what might turn into his biggest foreign policy challenge yet, has put out conflicting signals over what Moscow's reaction would be to large-scale U.S. military operations against targets in Afghanistan. Saying the "evil" of terror actions had to be punished, the Kremlin leader cautiously added on Saturday: "We should not liken ourselves to bandits who strike from behind. We must weigh up our decisions and make them on the basis of proven facts." FEAR OF U.S. INFLUENCE IN CENTRAL ASIA Russia's political establishment meanwhile began to show signs of increasing nervousness on Monday at the implications of U.S. military action in Afghanistan. U.S. action could so destabilise the situation in Central Asia that Russia "might be deprived of its zones of influence in the region" Sergei Zagidullin, deputy chairman of the parliamentary committee for international affairs, told RIA Novist news agency. The decision of Uzbekistan to give up its air space to the United States "placed Russia in a difficult situation," he said. Cooperation with a U.S. operation launched from Russia's backyard could also give Putin huge problems with his own armed forces, analysts say. "Having got access into the Russian sphere of influence in Central Asia, the Americans could hang on there," Vedomosti said, voicing a fear certain to be shared by Russia's generals. At the same time, Putin, who has sought to avoid confrontation with the United States on several issues, may find it impossible to steer a middle course indefinitely. "Either way, with or without Russian backing for U.S. operations, there will be instability in the region," independent analyst Alexander Golts said on Monday. "The difficulty for Russia will be in its relations with the United States which is saying 'Either you are our allies or you are with our enemies'. There is no third way," said Golts. ------------------------------------------------- This Discussion List is the follow-up for the old stopnato @listbot.com that has been shut down ==^================================================================ EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.a9spWA Or send an email To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] This email was sent to: archive@jab.org T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================
