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Gunfire highlights renewed strain between two Koreas: Exchange of shots comes as President Bush gives weapons warning to Pyongyang, says Andrew Ward: Financial Times, Nov 28, 2001 By ANDREW WARD Just hours after President George W. Bush publicly voiced concern about North Korea's weapons programme, a burst of gunfire rattled across its tense border with South Korea, the world's most heavily fortified frontier. The brief exchange underlined the continued unpredictability and occasional aggression of North Korea at a time when the communist regime is being mentioned as a possible future target of an expanded US war against terrorism. The country is included in Washington's list of terrorist-sponsoring nations. On Monday, Mr Bush demanded that North Korea allow inspectors into the country to monitor its suspected development of nuclear and biochemical weapons. He warned that Pyongyang would be "held accountable" if it developed weapons of mass destruction. North Korean troops yesterday fired a trio of machine gun rounds across the divide, one of them smashing the window of a South Korean guard post. South Korean forces responded with 15 volleys of gunfire and broadcast warnings through loud hailers. Nobody was hurt. Seoul dismissed the incident as an accident, but it highlighted the strained relations on the divided peninsula and dealt a further blow to South Korean president Kim Dae-jung, whose "sunshine" policy of reconciliation with North Korea has faltered this year. Last week, John Bolton, US undersecretary of state for arms control, accused North Korea of developing germ weapons. South Korea said its neighbour possessed up to 5,000 tons of biochemical weapons, including anthrax and smallpox. Diplomats in Seoul are sceptical about a US attack on North Korea, pointing out that it would be a far more formidable opponent than the Taliban. Moreover, Pyongyang is not thought to have strong links with Middle Eastern terrorists. "North Korea has been involved in international terrorism in the past but it has kept its nose clean in recent years so the chances of it being dragged into the current conflict seem remote," says one western diplomat. But Mr Bush's language suggests a hardening in Washing ton's attitude towards the country. Some diplomats in Seoul say the White House needs to portray North Korea as a threat to justify its planned missile defence shield. Mr Bush's hardline stance contrasts with the peacemaking role played on the Korean peninsula by his predecessor, Bill Clinton. Mr Clinton's administration helped broker last year's summit meeting between President Kim and his North Korean counterpart, Kim Jong-il, in Pyongyang. The event won the South Korean president the Nobel Peace prize and seemed to herald a new era of peace between the two Koreas - even reunification looked possible. But since then, relations have deteriorated. In March this year, Pyongyang froze contacts with Seoul in protest at Mr Bush's policies, referring to its US-backed neighbour as "Washington's puppet". Talks aimed at increasing co-operation on the peninsula restarted in September but broke down in acrimony this month following a dispute about South Korea's heightened state of security since the September 11 terrorist attacks on the US. Pyongyang viewed Seoul's precautions as an act of aggression. Military analysts said yesterday's shooting could have been designed to test South Korea's reactions. The Korean peninsula, separated following the second world war, is considered the most heavily militarised area in the world, with nearly 2m troops deployed on both sides of the border, including 37,000 US soldiers defending the South Korean side. There have been occasional outbreaks of hostility since the 1950-53 Korean war ended with an uneasy ceasefire. Cross-border gunfire and naval skirmishes have become less common in recent years as relations between the two countries improved. But yesterday's shooting was the second border incident in two months. In September, South Korean soldiers fired warning shots after a group of North Korean troops entered a no-go area. Seoul made a further contribution to regional tension last week, when it test-fired a missile 100km into the Yellow Sea. The downturn in inter-Korean relations is a disappointment to President Kim Dae-jung. His popularity among voters has fallen as the public has become disillusioned with the lack of concrete results from rapprochement with North Korea. Seoul is perceived to have thrown aid and investment at Pyongyang without getting anything in return. North Korea has reneged on an agreement to reopen a rail link with South Korea and cancelled a series of planned reunions of families separated by the border. Kim Jong-il's reluctance to lower barriers with the global community is in spite of mounting evidence of his impoverished country's need for help in combating famine and ill-health. Last week, the World Health Organisation called for increased aid to fight malaria and tuberculosis. Analysts say Pyongyang has an opportunity to end its isolation as President Kim Dae-jung enters his final year in office. Opinion polls suggest the next administration is likely to be less friendly towards its neighbour. There were encouraging signs following September 11, when Pyongyang condemned the attacks on the US and agreed to sign an international anti-terrorism agreement. But yesterday's exchange indicates that Kim Jong-il is not yet ready to make the last leap across the cold war's final frontier. 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