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STRATFOR Chavez Increasingly Isolated by Cuban Pullout, Mounting Dissent ============================================ 2350 GMT, 011206 Summary Embattled Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez appears to be seeking a confrontation that would justify declaring a state of exception. Such a move, however, would be condemned at home and abroad and likely would accelerate the end of Chavez's regime. With tensions in Venezuela building rapidly, Cuban leader Fidel Castro is distancing himself from Chavez. Analysis Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced Nov.30 that he will rule until 2021, when he plans to retire at the age of 67. Chavez also warned critics and political opponents that he has "rifles and tanks" to defend his "Bolivarian revolution." Faced with a rapidly slowing economy, collapsing popularity and growing political opposition, Chavez appears to be looking for any justification to declare a state of exception. Such a move would suspend constitutional guarantees and civil liberties, militarize the government and prolong his regime indefinitely. But Chavez is fast losing support from ally Cuba and his own military forces. Any effort to sustain his regime through a "self-coup" backed by top commanding generals will backfire almost immediately. A state of exception would be viewed at home and internationally as a self-coup -- a move by a democratically elected leader to rule autocratically with military support. Chavez apparently believes that a state of exception would enable him to consolidate his grip on power. But if he goes that far, his already tenuous support within the military will collapse and Venezuelan business and labor leaders likely will join forces to shut down the economy and disrupt oil production with prolonged strikes. Moreover, the United States and Latin American governments would immediately repudiate Chavez, as would entities like the Organization of American States and United Nations. In Cuba, President Fidel Castro and his brother, Raul, believe Chavez has placed himself in a politically untenable position since Sept. 11, diplomatic sources from Cuba and Mexico tell STRATFOR. A year ago, Fidel Castro publicly anointed Chavez his revolutionary heir in Latin America but in recent weeks has been distancing himself from the Venezuelan president. On Nov. 30, as Chavez announced plans for a lengthy rule, the Castro brothers called a meeting and ordered the immediate withdrawal from Venezuela of all Cuban doctors, sports trainers, security and other non-diplomatic personnel, sources said. The decision -- which comes ahead of a national civic strike in Venezuela on Dec. 10 -- is intended to head off potential political confrontations between Havana and Washington if armed conflict erupts in Venezuela. Mexican diplomatic sources said the Castro brothers believe Chavez will seal his own political destruction if he declares a state of exception. Although Chavez controls the armed forces' senior chain of command, from generals to colonels in command of battalions, the military's support for Chavez has always been ambiguous and shallow. Career officers are upset with low salaries and poor military housing. Also, many Venezuelan officers are unhappy about the Chavez regime's links to Colombian guerrillas and the Castro government, both of which Venezuelan military doctrine for the past 40 years has painted as the greatest potential threats to national security. Moreover, well-documented corruption allegations against senior generals loyal to Chavez have recently infuriated many senior and middle-grade officers who are not part of the president's inner circle. Officers that Venezuelan news media have publicly accused of corruption include Division Gen. Victor Cruz Weffer, who commands the army, and Division Gen. Melvin Lopez Hidalgo, commander of the 3rd Infantry Division based in Caracas. Other senior officers and Chavez loyalists believed to be involved in corruption include Gen. Lucas Rincon Romero, the military's top-ranking officer after Chavez, and Division Gen. Belisario Landis, who commands the National Guard. Quinto Dia, a Caracas political weekly, reports that the corruption allegations have inflamed tensions and divisions within the military. Many officers are furious that Venezuelans increasingly view their armed forces as a corrupt institution. According to Quinto Dia, anti-Chavez sentiments and intrigues run strong at Fort Tiuna in Caracas and in the central states of Aragua and Carabobo, where elite air force and army paratrooper units have headquarters. However, army units in Carabobo are split between pro- and anti-Chavez factions. Pro-Chavez sentiment is strongest at the Maracaibo Command, where key tank and artillery regiments are based, and also at frontier commands in the states of Tachira, Apure and Amazonas. The military infighting and other turmoil will come to a head soon. Business, civic and labor groups are joining forces for a strike on Dec. 10. To counter that, Chavez has organized a series of public events to celebrate the third anniversary of his election. Those events include the official celebration of Air Force Day on Dec.10, which Chavez ordered should be moved from Maracay to Caracas. The celebration will involve flyover exercises for F-16, F-5, Mirage and Mig-29 combat aircraft and attack helicopters. Chavez has also urged his supporters to "concentrate" their numbers around the presidential palace of Miraflores from Dec. 7 to 10 to celebrate his election and the enactment of reform laws. Business and labor leaders are urging Caracas residents to stay home during the national strike to minimize the possibility of confrontation with Chavez supporters. But violence is still a possibility. A Dec. 7 march led by Alejandro Pena Esclusa, a right-wing firebrand, likely will collide near the presidential palace with pro-Chavez activists who have vowed to block the march. If violent confrontations ensue, Chavez may be emboldened to decree a state of exception. ==^================================================================ This email was sent to: archive@jab.org EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.a9WB2D Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================
