HTTP://WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK ---------------------------December 30, 2001
India, Pakistan rattle their nukes
Contributing Foreign Editor
For the first time since the Cuban missile crisis
of October, 1962, two nuclear-armed powers, India and Pakistan, are in a direct
military confrontation that could lead to a massive conventional war - and even
to full-scale nuclear conflict.
The armed forces of both old foes are on
high alert and deploying to forward positions. India and Pakistan say their
nuclear-armed missiles are ready to strike.
When War at the Top of the
World, my book on Afghanistan and the Kashmir conflict first came out in 1999
(2000 in the U.S., U.K., and India), people asked, "Who cares about that
region?" I sought to explain, usually in vain, that this little-known part of
the globe was about to erupt. A nuclear war between India and Pakistan,
according to CIA studies, would kill two million people immediately, and injure
100 million. Equally apocalyptic, a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan,
and attacks on one another's nuclear power reactors, would send a cloud of
radioactive dust around the planet.
India and Pakistan have fought three
wars over the divided mountain state of Kashmir, the majority of whose 11
million inhabitants are Muslims. For the past 12 years, a score of Muslim
insurgent groups have waged a fierce guerrilla war against some 600,000 Indian
soldiers and paramilitary troops in Indian Kashmir. India calls the Muslim
insurgents "Pakistani-supported terrorists," a position lately adopted by the
United States. Pakistan calls them legitimate "freedom fighters" battling for
the independence of Kashmir. India rejects UN demands for a plebiscite to
determine Kashmir's future.
The Kashmir insurgency has been an extremely
dirty war. Some 50,000 have died, mainly civilians. Indian forces have resorted
to brutal reprisals, arson, torture, murder of suspects, and gang rape of Muslim
women. Kashmir insurgents have slaughtered Hindus, causing 250,000 to flee the
Jammu region, and assassinated many state officials. Indian forces disguised as
Kashmiri mujahedeen have even attacked Sikhs in an effort to turn them against
Muslims.
India has long threatened to attack Pakistan, which it accuses
of arming and supporting the Kashmiri mujahedeen. In fact, Pakistani
intelligence, ISI, has quietly backed some - but not all - of the militant
groups, as well as Sikh separatists and Christian insurgents in India's eastern
hill states. India, in turn, stirs up sectarian violence inside Pakistan.
THE LAST STRAW
For India, the last straw came just before
Christmas, when as yet unidentified militants attacked India's parliament
building in New Delhi. This assault followed attacks against Delhi's trademark
Red Fort and against the Kashmir parliament in Srinagar. India accused two new
Pakistan-based Kashmiri insurgent groups - Lashkar-e-Toyiba and Jash-e-Mohammed
- of staging the attacks with Pakistani backing. Interestingly, according to my
information, neither of these extreme groups are run by Pakistani intelligence.
But Pakistan was plunged into confrontation with an outraged India.
The
attack on parliament in Delhi was an intolerable outrage. India's cautious prime
minister, Atal Vajpayee, is under intense pressure to strike Pakistan - or at
least the bases of insurgents in the Pakistani portion of divided Kashmir. Hindu
fundamentalists, led by Home Minister L.K. Advani and Defence Minister George
Fernandes, are beating the war drums. Even India's usually conservative generals
are itching to teach Pakistan a lesson.
Pakistan is issuing its own
threats and massing troops. The confrontation with India is a boon for
Pakistan's military strongman, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, diverting public anger
over Pakistan's recent debacle in Afghanistan and its unpopular new role as an
American base. Unfortunately for Pakistan, Musharraf retired or sidelined the
army's best generals under U.S. pressure just before the confrontation with
India.
India is moving troops, armour and aircraft to forward attack
positions along its 1,000-mile border with Pakistan. India's three powerful
armour-heavy "strike corps" are poised to sever Pakistan's vulnerable waist in
the Bahawalpur-Rahimyar Khan sectors. India's increasingly potent navy is ready
to blockade Karachi, Pakistan's main port and entry point for oil.
ADVANTAGE INDIA
India's 1.2-million man armed forces,
with 3,400 tanks and 738 combat aircraft, outnumber and outgun Pakistan's
620,000 troops, 2,300 tanks and 353 warplanes. India's arsenal is mostly modern
Russian equipment, while Pakistan's is obsolescent. Equally important,
Pakistan's limited industrial base allows only a short war, while India's much
larger economy can sustain a long conflict.
The U.S. is leading frantic
diplomatic efforts to prevent war. But passions are running very high. The most
likely war scenario: Indian commando and air attacks on insurgent bases in
Pakistani Kashmir which could escalate to full-scale war. Pakistan probably
cannot halt a massive Indian invasion without using tactical nuclear weapons.
This, in turn, could trigger nuclear strikes against military and civilian
targets. I hope both nations will pull back from the brink, but a false report,
or another raid, could set off a huge, devastating war with unimaginable
consequences.
Last week Sun columnist Peter Worthington's long-simmering
jealousy again burst into the open. He launched a long, vitriolic denunciation
of me, using out-of-context quotes and distortions. I'm sorry he's not taken
seriously, isn't on U.S. national TV and is not read abroad. Being
inconsequential must pain him deeply. He has my sympathies.
Eric can be reached by e-mail at [EMAIL PROTECTED].
Letters to the editor should be sent to [EMAIL PROTECTED].
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