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Friday, January 04, 2002 2:16 PM

IRAQ IS THE NEXT TARGET.

The Russian leadership will possibly have to swallow another
US pill

Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, December 27, 2001, pp. 1, 6

The Russian leadership is facing a very difficult choice - either to
confirm its pro-West orientation and remain in the international
coalition created by Washington, or to try to defend Iraq, its old
partner, from Washington's attacks. Judging from the latest
statements by US politicians in the media, precisely Iraq is the
next target in the current anti-terrorist campaign. This choice is
very difficult for Russia because an armed conflict between India
and Pakistan is underway. In this regard, it should be
remembered that Moscow and Delhi signed an agreement on
friendship and cooperation, though this agreement does not
stipulate that Russia will support India in armed conflicts.

Russian connivance in Washington's action against Iraq may
lead to the revision of relationships with Delhi and Beijing which
may consider Moscow as an unreliable partner and ally.
Evidence of Baghdad's guilt is indirect, and to all appearances
Washington will share it with the international community after
the start of a military action against Iraq. It is not ruled out that the
US will obtain evidence after the start of the operation, as
happened with Bin Laden's video confession, which many
experts consider a fake.

Victor Kremenyuk, Deputy Director of the Institute for the US and
Canada: "The possibility that the US will strike Iraq is very high.
The momentum of the victory in Afghanistan will encourage
Washington to square accounts with other countries. Another
success will turn the US into a master in that region.

"To what will a new war lead? First and foremost, the Islamic
fundamentalists will consolidate their position. They will see
signs of a more aggressive fight against Arab and Islamic
nationalism. In addition, a war against Iraq will raise the
question of when Arabs will use retribution weapons against the
US. There are many groups similar to Al-Qaida in the Arab world.
Many "sleeping agents" of such groups live in Western
countries, including the US. The anti-Iraq action may become the
last straw which will provoke another strike by the Islamic
extremists against the US or some other Western country. It is
absolutely impossible to predict what forces and weapons they
will use."

Sergei Luzyanin, Doctor of Historical Science: "Beijing's reaction
to Washington's possible action in Iraq will be very negative and
rather strict. As a matter of fact, China maintains close political
and economic relations with Baghdad. It should be noted that
despite all changes of political weather in the world, China never
betrays old friends and partners, even if leading Western
countries do not like them.

"It is clear that Beijing will not venture to spoil relations with the
US, because China is interested in their development. However,
Beijing will surely express its discontent, because Washington
feels too free in a region which China considers as a zone of
interest for itself. I mean Central Asia."

(c) 2002 WPS Agency. All Rights Reserved. WPS Russian Media
Monitoring Agency.
Kholodilny Per. 1, Moscow, 113191, Russia
[EMAIL PROTECTED],
http://www.wps.ru: phone: 7-095-955-2950;
fax: 7-095-955-2927.

Source: DEFENCE & SECURITY 04/01/2002

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